2017 MLB Win Totals

Back in early February, Atlantis Sportsbook in Las Vegas became the first oddsmaker to post win totals for the 2017 MLB season. Although many books had been hanging World Series odds for several months, this offered our first glimpse into the projected final standings for the upcoming season.

Almost two weeks later, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook posted their own MLB win totals with a few notable differences like the Royals and Athletics. Hopefully bettors followed our advice and took Oakland Over 66.5 early on.

The table below displays the win totals for every team along with last season’s record.

Team July 13
Mar 27
Feb 21
Feb 10
2016 Record
Los Angeles Dodgers 104.5 94.5 (u-129) 94.5 91.5 91-71
Houston Astros 102.5 (o-120) 91.5 (u-137) 91.5 87.5 84-78
Washington Nationals 93.5 90.5 (o-122) 91.5 90.5 95-67
Cleveland Indians 90.5 93.5 (u-132) 93.5 92.5 94-67
Boston Red Sox 90.5 (u-120) 92.5 (u-128) 92.5 90.5 93-69
Arizona DBacks 89.5 (o-135) 77.5 (o-117) 77.5 78.5 69-93
Colorado Rockies 87.5 (u-130) 80.5 (u-121) 80.5 79.5 75-87
Chicago Cubs 85 96.5 (u-126) 95.5 95.5 103-58
New York Yankees 84.5 (o-125) 82.5 (o-134) 83.5 83.5 84-78
Milwaukee Brewers 83.5 (o-145) 69.5 (o-138) 69.5 72.5 73-89
Tampa Bay Rays 82.5 (u-120) 78.5 (o-128) 78.5 75.5 68-94
St. Louis Cardinals 81.5 (u-120) 84.5 (o-138) 83.5 87.5 86-76
Texas Rangers 80.5 (o-130) 85.5 (u-138) 84.5 86.5 95-67
Kansas City Royals 80.5 (o-130) 75.5 (o-137) 74.5 80.5 81-81
Minnesota Twins 79.5 (u-130) 74.5 (o-125) 75.5 70.5 59-103
Los Angeles Angels 78.5 (o-120) 79.5 (u-115) 80.5 76.5 74-88
Miami Marlins 78.5 76.5 (u-113) 76.5 77.5 79-82
Toronto Blue Jays 78.5 (u-120) 85.5 (o-114) 84.5 86.5 89-73
Seattle Mariners 78 (o-125) 85.5 (o-128) 85.5 85.5 86-76
Pittsburgh Pirates 78 83 (u-115) 82.5 85.5 78-83
New York Mets 77.5 87.5 (o-123) 88.5 89.5 87-75
Atlanta Braves 76.5 (o-125) 74.5 (o-134) 75.5 71.5 68-93
Baltimore Orioles 76.5 (u-120) 80.5 (u-121) 79.5 84.5 89-73
Detroit Tigers 75.5 82.5 (u-122) 83.5 85.5 86-75
Oakland Athletics 73.5 (u-125) 73.5 (o-117) 74.5 66.5 69-93
Cincinnati Reds 71.5 69.5 (u-115) 70.5 73.5 68-94
San Francisco Giants 69.5 (o-130) 88.5 (o-119) 87.5 87.5 87-75
San Diego Padres 68.5 66.5 (u-141) 67.5 64.5 68-94
Chicago White Sox 68.5 (u-120) 68.5 (o-140) 68.5 73.5 78-84
Philadelphia Phillies 60.5 (o-120) 73.5 (u-138) 72.5 72.5 71-91

July 13th Update

BetOnline has posted updated numbers for the second half of the season. The first half was a crazy one and plenty of the preseason win totals have essentially already been decided. There isn’t a ton of value to be had from an analytical standpoint, as all of these totals are basically spot on with Fangraphs‘ projected standings. These will likely only be up for the next day so place your bets now if you feel that any numbers look juicy.

The following was written before the season began

After winning their first World Series since 1908, the Chicago Cubs opened with the highest win total (95.5) for the upcoming season. In fact, this was the highest opening win total in several years. The San Francisco Giants (90) opened with the highest win total at the Atlantis last season, the Washington Nationals (93) opened with the highest total in 2015, the Los Angeles Dodgers (94) opened with the highest win total in 2014, and the Detroit Tigers (93.5) opened with the highest win total in 2013.

It’s also worth noting that the Cleveland Indians opened with a higher win total than the Boston Red Sox at both Nevada books, even though the Red Sox have better odds of winning the World Series. That’s based largely on strength of schedule, as many teams in the AL Central are still rebuilding (like the Twins and White Sox) while there are several playoff caliber teams in the AL East. In fact, the Indians are -600 to win their division.

As you can see, there have been plenty of changes around the market since opening. At CRIS, here are the 5 most lopsided-bet win totals:

83% on Dodgers Under 94.5
81% on Cardinals Over 84.5
79% on Mets Over 87.5
78% on Orioles Over 80.5
77% on Royals Over 75.5

Based on the opening win totals, we can also project the MLB playoff picture based on the oddsmakers:

National League:

  • NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers (91.5)
  • NL Central: Chicago Cubs (95.5)
  • NL East: Washington Nationals (90.5)
  • Wild Card: New York Mets (89.5) vs. St. Louis Cardinals or San Francisco Giants (87.5)

American League:

  • AL East: Boston Red Sox (90.5)
  • AL Central: Cleveland Indians (92.5)
  • AL West: Houston Astros (87.5)
  • Wild Card: Texas Rangers (86.5) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (86.5)

We will continue to update this article as more sportsbooks post their win totals in the upcoming weeks, but make sure to bookmark our free MLB odds page for the latest lines, betting trends, injuries, futures and more.

Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

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David Solar

David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He specializes in sports betting analytics and creating data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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One comment on “2017 MLB Win Totals
  1. Atlanta was one of the better teams down the stretch last year. They seemed to finally figure things out. They also had a really good off-season and if they finish off this move for Phillips that’s another win. 71.5 seems quite low. That’s the one that immediately stands out for me.

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