Back in early February, Atlantis Sportsbook in Las Vegas became the first oddsmaker to post win totals for the 2017 MLB season. Although many books had been hanging World Series odds for several months, this offered our first glimpse into the projected final standings for the upcoming season.
Almost two weeks later, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook posted their own MLB win totals with a few notable differences like the Royals and Athletics. Hopefully bettors followed our advice and took Oakland Over 66.5 early on.
The table below displays the win totals for every team along with last season’s record.
|Los Angeles Dodgers||104.5||94.5 (u-129)||94.5||91.5||91-71|
|Houston Astros||102.5 (o-120)||91.5 (u-137)||91.5||87.5||84-78|
|Washington Nationals||93.5||90.5 (o-122)||91.5||90.5||95-67|
|Cleveland Indians||90.5||93.5 (u-132)||93.5||92.5||94-67|
|Boston Red Sox||90.5 (u-120)||92.5 (u-128)||92.5||90.5||93-69|
|Arizona DBacks||89.5 (o-135)||77.5 (o-117)||77.5||78.5||69-93|
|Colorado Rockies||87.5 (u-130)||80.5 (u-121)||80.5||79.5||75-87|
|Chicago Cubs||85||96.5 (u-126)||95.5||95.5||103-58|
|New York Yankees||84.5 (o-125)||82.5 (o-134)||83.5||83.5||84-78|
|Milwaukee Brewers||83.5 (o-145)||69.5 (o-138)||69.5||72.5||73-89|
|Tampa Bay Rays||82.5 (u-120)||78.5 (o-128)||78.5||75.5||68-94|
|St. Louis Cardinals||81.5 (u-120)||84.5 (o-138)||83.5||87.5||86-76|
|Texas Rangers||80.5 (o-130)||85.5 (u-138)||84.5||86.5||95-67|
|Kansas City Royals||80.5 (o-130)||75.5 (o-137)||74.5||80.5||81-81|
|Minnesota Twins||79.5 (u-130)||74.5 (o-125)||75.5||70.5||59-103|
|Los Angeles Angels||78.5 (o-120)||79.5 (u-115)||80.5||76.5||74-88|
|Miami Marlins||78.5||76.5 (u-113)||76.5||77.5||79-82|
|Toronto Blue Jays||78.5 (u-120)||85.5 (o-114)||84.5||86.5||89-73|
|Seattle Mariners||78 (o-125)||85.5 (o-128)||85.5||85.5||86-76|
|Pittsburgh Pirates||78||83 (u-115)||82.5||85.5||78-83|
|New York Mets||77.5||87.5 (o-123)||88.5||89.5||87-75|
|Atlanta Braves||76.5 (o-125)||74.5 (o-134)||75.5||71.5||68-93|
|Baltimore Orioles||76.5 (u-120)||80.5 (u-121)||79.5||84.5||89-73|
|Detroit Tigers||75.5||82.5 (u-122)||83.5||85.5||86-75|
|Oakland Athletics||73.5 (u-125)||73.5 (o-117)||74.5||66.5||69-93|
|Cincinnati Reds||71.5||69.5 (u-115)||70.5||73.5||68-94|
|San Francisco Giants||69.5 (o-130)||88.5 (o-119)||87.5||87.5||87-75|
|San Diego Padres||68.5||66.5 (u-141)||67.5||64.5||68-94|
|Chicago White Sox||68.5 (u-120)||68.5 (o-140)||68.5||73.5||78-84|
|Philadelphia Phillies||60.5 (o-120)||73.5 (u-138)||72.5||72.5||71-91|
July 13th Update
BetOnline has posted updated numbers for the second half of the season. The first half was a crazy one and plenty of the preseason win totals have essentially already been decided. There isn’t a ton of value to be had from an analytical standpoint, as all of these totals are basically spot on with Fangraphs‘ projected standings. These will likely only be up for the next day so place your bets now if you feel that any numbers look juicy.
The following was written before the season began
After winning their first World Series since 1908, the Chicago Cubs opened with the highest win total (95.5) for the upcoming season. In fact, this was the highest opening win total in several years. The San Francisco Giants (90) opened with the highest win total at the Atlantis last season, the Washington Nationals (93) opened with the highest total in 2015, the Los Angeles Dodgers (94) opened with the highest win total in 2014, and the Detroit Tigers (93.5) opened with the highest win total in 2013.
It’s also worth noting that the Cleveland Indians opened with a higher win total than the Boston Red Sox at both Nevada books, even though the Red Sox have better odds of winning the World Series. That’s based largely on strength of schedule, as many teams in the AL Central are still rebuilding (like the Twins and White Sox) while there are several playoff caliber teams in the AL East. In fact, the Indians are -600 to win their division.
As you can see, there have been plenty of changes around the market since opening. At CRIS, here are the 5 most lopsided-bet win totals:
83% on Dodgers Under 94.5
81% on Cardinals Over 84.5
79% on Mets Over 87.5
78% on Orioles Over 80.5
77% on Royals Over 75.5
Based on the opening win totals, we can also project the MLB playoff picture based on the oddsmakers:
- NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers (91.5)
- NL Central: Chicago Cubs (95.5)
- NL East: Washington Nationals (90.5)
- Wild Card: New York Mets (89.5) vs. St. Louis Cardinals or San Francisco Giants (87.5)
- AL East: Boston Red Sox (90.5)
- AL Central: Cleveland Indians (92.5)
- AL West: Houston Astros (87.5)
- Wild Card: Texas Rangers (86.5) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (86.5)
We will continue to update this article as more sportsbooks post their win totals in the upcoming weeks, but make sure to bookmark our free MLB odds page for the latest lines, betting trends, injuries, futures and more.
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