2017 College Football Week 10 Opening Line Report

2017 College Football Week 10 Opening Line Report

We’re heading into the last few weeks of the 2017-18 College Football regular season with Alabama still firmly atop the National Championship odds at -140. You can get the entire field (any other team in the nation) at +120 to win it all.

Alabama hosts LSU this weekend and while the summer lookahead line listed Bama -12, that line is now -21.5. Below we’ve compared the current and opening Week 10 odds to the lookahead lines over the summer:

MatchupCRIS Current
(Oct 30)
(Oct 29)
G Nugget Lookahead
(Jun 22)
LSU at AlabamaBama -21.5Bama -20Bama -12
Clemson at NC StateClem -7Clem -7Clem -6.5
Virginia Tech at Miami FLVT -2.5VT -2Miami -6
Oklahoma at Oklahoma StOkla St -3.5Okla St -3Okla -4
UCLA at UtahOff BoardOff BoardPick 'Em
Oregon at WashingtonWash -26.5Wash -26Wash -13.5
Stanford -at Washington StateWash St -2.5Wash St -1Stan -5.5
Ohio St at IowaOhio St -16.5Ohio St -17Ohio St -16
Penn St at Michigan StPenn St -7.5Penn St -9Penn St -13
Texas at TCUTCU -6.5TCU -8TCU -3

LSU at Alabama: The Tide opened -21.5 vs LSU but they haven’t been great against ranked SEC West teams (18-18 ATS since 2005 compared to 19-6 ATS vs. all other ranked teams). Both teams are coming off a Bye week and should be fresh, and we’ve seen spread bets fairly split so far on both sides.

Virginia Tech at Miami FL: The Hurricanes actually opened -3 at BetOnline but sharp money was all over Va Tech early. The rest of the market opened VT as favorites, and now have them listed at -2.5. Miami has had a great season at 7-0 SU but they’re getting just 33% of early public support. I’d be surprised if this line closes Miami +3 or higher.

Clemson at NC State: 90% of early tickets have come in on Clemson to cover on the road, and most of the market appears comfortable keeping the number at -7 right now. We may see some sharp money during the week on NC State if they reach +7.5/+8.

Other betting nuggets:

Other major line movement early on at BetOnline:
Mizzou (+3 to -3.5) v FLA
Mich St (+13 to +7.5) v PSU
So Miss (+10 to +5.5) at TENN

The Army/Air Force total will likely be on the move quickly when it opens– Unders have gone 28-8 when service academies meet since 2005.

FSU is 0-5-2 ATS, only team left without a cover this season. Seminoles opened -4 and moved to -3.5 vs. Syracuse, by far the lowest favorite they’ve been against the Orange:
2017 FSU -4
2016 FSU -23
2015 FSU -16
2014 FSU -23
2013 FSU -37.5

FSU is getting just 22% of spread tickets against Syracuse, so bettors realllllllly don’t want to bet on the ‘Noles this weekend.

Most bet games of the week so far are:
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St
Wake Forest/Notre Dame

May be a tough spot for Ohio State this weekend at Iowa: Top-10 teams after beating a top-10 opponent have gone just 57-82-2 ATS (41%) since 2005.

Worst game of the week may be Baylor (1-7 SU) at Kansas (0-8 SU). The Bears are -8 to cover on the road.

BetDSI recently posted odds for potential NCAAF Playoff games– here’s a look:
UGA vs BAMA (-6)
CLEM (-7) vs MIAMI
CLEM (-4.5) vs VA TECH
WISC vs OHIO ST (-9.5)

Over the next couple days, we’ll be updating NCAAF Playoff odds, National Championship odds, and Heisman Trophy odds.

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

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