2017 College Football Week 10 Opening Line Report
We’re heading into the last few weeks of the 2017-18 College Football regular season with Alabama still firmly atop the National Championship odds at -140. You can get the entire field (any other team in the nation) at +120 to win it all.
Alabama hosts LSU this weekend and while the summer lookahead line listed Bama -12, that line is now -21.5. Below we’ve compared the current and opening Week 10 odds to the lookahead lines over the summer:
|G Nugget Lookahead
|LSU at Alabama||Bama -21.5||Bama -20||Bama -12|
|Clemson at NC State||Clem -7||Clem -7||Clem -6.5|
|Virginia Tech at Miami FL||VT -2.5||VT -2||Miami -6|
|Oklahoma at Oklahoma St||Okla St -3.5||Okla St -3||Okla -4|
|UCLA at Utah||Off Board||Off Board||Pick 'Em|
|Oregon at Washington||Wash -26.5||Wash -26||Wash -13.5|
|Stanford -at Washington State||Wash St -2.5||Wash St -1||Stan -5.5|
|Ohio St at Iowa||Ohio St -16.5||Ohio St -17||Ohio St -16|
|Penn St at Michigan St||Penn St -7.5||Penn St -9||Penn St -13|
|Texas at TCU||TCU -6.5||TCU -8||TCU -3|
LSU at Alabama: The Tide opened -21.5 vs LSU but they haven’t been great against ranked SEC West teams (18-18 ATS since 2005 compared to 19-6 ATS vs. all other ranked teams). Both teams are coming off a Bye week and should be fresh, and we’ve seen spread bets fairly split so far on both sides.
Virginia Tech at Miami FL: The Hurricanes actually opened -3 at BetOnline but sharp money was all over Va Tech early. The rest of the market opened VT as favorites, and now have them listed at -2.5. Miami has had a great season at 7-0 SU but they’re getting just 33% of early public support. I’d be surprised if this line closes Miami +3 or higher.
Clemson at NC State: 90% of early tickets have come in on Clemson to cover on the road, and most of the market appears comfortable keeping the number at -7 right now. We may see some sharp money during the week on NC State if they reach +7.5/+8.
Other betting nuggets:
Other major line movement early on at BetOnline:
Mizzou (+3 to -3.5) v FLA
Mich St (+13 to +7.5) v PSU
So Miss (+10 to +5.5) at TENN
The Army/Air Force total will likely be on the move quickly when it opens– Unders have gone 28-8 when service academies meet since 2005.
FSU is 0-5-2 ATS, only team left without a cover this season. Seminoles opened -4 and moved to -3.5 vs. Syracuse, by far the lowest favorite they’ve been against the Orange:
2017 FSU -4
2016 FSU -23
2015 FSU -16
2014 FSU -23
2013 FSU -37.5
FSU is getting just 22% of spread tickets against Syracuse, so bettors realllllllly don’t want to bet on the ‘Noles this weekend.
Most bet games of the week so far are:
Wake Forest/Notre Dame
May be a tough spot for Ohio State this weekend at Iowa: Top-10 teams after beating a top-10 opponent have gone just 57-82-2 ATS (41%) since 2005.
Worst game of the week may be Baylor (1-7 SU) at Kansas (0-8 SU). The Bears are -8 to cover on the road.
BetDSI recently posted odds for potential NCAAF Playoff games– here’s a look:
UGA vs BAMA (-6)
CLEM (-7) vs MIAMI
CLEM (-4.5) vs VA TECH
WISC vs OHIO ST (-9.5)
Over the next couple days, we’ll be updating NCAAF Playoff odds, National Championship odds, and Heisman Trophy odds.