2017-18 College Football Week 7 Betting Recap
Friday night in the Carrier Dome brought us a Syracuse upset as +24 point dogs over Clemson. The Orange closed +1300 on the moneyline and put a dent into Clemson’s title hopes, especially with QB Kelly Bryant’s status in the air due to a concussion. Syracuse’s upset was the biggest in the ACC that we’ve tracked dating back to 2005. ACC dogs closing +1100 or higher had been 0-48 straight up before the win by Syracuse.
Later on Friday night, Cal crushed Washington State 37-3 as +580 moneyline dogs. The upsets continued into the early Saturday games with BC (+19 spread, +1050 moneyline) winning 45-42 at Louisville, and UConn (+11 spread, +340 moneyline) winning 28-24 at Temple. We even got another big upset late Saturday night when Arizona State (+17 spread, +700 moneyline) beat Washington 13-7. Four Top-10 teams lost overall. There will also be one game played on Sunday (Akron-WMU) after field conditions were too poor to play on Saturday.
Week 7 Betting Trends:
Home teams: 28-26 ATS
Underdogs: 32-23 ATS
While road teams still have a huge edge overall this season, contrarian home dogs did very nicely in Week 7, going 10-5 ATS.
Unders are now 253-195 this season, a rate of 56.5%. Teams that have gone Under in every game are Akron, Houston, Troy, MTSU, and FSU. Only team that hasn’t been involved in an Under is UL Monroe.
Most Extreme Totals:
Highest: TTU/WVU 78.5 (barely went over as WVU won 46-35)
Lowest: Michigan St/Minnesota 40 (easily went over as MSU won 30-27)
Biggest ML upsets:
Syracuse +1300 vs. Clemson (Friday night)
BC +1050 at Louisville
Arizona St +674 vs. Washington
South Alabama +644 at Troy (Wednesday night)
Cal +580 vs. Washington St (Friday night)
Tulsa +447 vs. Houston
Arkansas +37 at Alabama (covered and lost 41-9)
East Carolina +36 at Central Florida (did not cover and lost 63-21)
Missouri +29.5 at Georgia (covered and lost 53-28)
More Betting Nuggets:
BYU is now 0-7 ATS on the season after losing 35-10 at Mississippi State. BYU opened +21, moved to +24, and closed +22.5. FSU is the only other team in the nation without a cover, going 0-3-2 ATS so far.
Texas (+9) couldn’t get the win but covered in their 29-24 loss to Oklahoma. Tom Herman’s teams have now covered 12 straight games as an underdog dating back to 2012.
There were lots of points in the Texas Tech/WVU game and these may have been the best:
How did he do that?!
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 14, 2017
However, WVU stormed back to win and cover 46-35 after going down 35-17 after halftime. Every single bet on the ‘Over’ cashed (opened 80.5, dropped to 71.5, closed 78.5).
EMU (+6.5) bettors were thrilled going for 2 at the end of the game rather than forcing overtime. Oh and Army moneyline bettors were happy after the play, too:
Have Army ML in a parlay?
You survived…barely pic.twitter.com/MqYDWNuXrv
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) October 14, 2017
Auburn/LSU was an extremely popular game to bet on, and Auburn closed with more than 70% of spread bets. They led 20-0 but LSU came back to win and cover 27-23.
Air Force has now failed to cover the week after playing Navy in 8 straight seasons. They dropped from -10.5 to -7.5 vs. UNLV and while they did win 34-30, they weren’t able to cover the spread.
The Kansas Jayhawks have now lost 43 straight road games. Their last win was in 2009 at UTEP 34-7. They play at TCU next week and will be 21+ point underdogs once again.
Texas A&M finally covered a game following a straight up loss, their first in 13 tries. They beat Florida in a nailbiter 19-17. The Aggies were a popular underdog pick, getting 70% of spread tickets and moving from +4 to +2.5. A nice win for public bettors.
Minnesota (+3.5) scored two touchdowns with under 6 mins to go to cover, but lost 30-27 vs. Michigan St.
Oregon St played its first game under interim HC Cory Hall on Saturday after Gary Anderson was fired. The Beavers had gone just 1-5 ATS this season but were able to cover +10 against Colorado. Oregon State was a very contrarian and sharp bet, getting just 19% of tickets but moving 3+ points off the opening line. They almost got the win too, but lost 36-33.
3 teams had a chance to go over their Season Win Totals on Saturday but all lost: Maryland Over 3.5, Buffalo Over 3.5 and UL Monroe Over 3.5.
UNC sealed the Under 7 for their Season Win Total after losing at home to UVA. Tar Heels are now 1-6 SU.
Clemson QB Kelly Bryant (concussion), questionable
Illinois WR Mike Dudek (leg), questionable
Stanford RB Bryce Love (ankle), questionable
Our NCAAF Best Bets went 9-6 ATS in Week 7 and are now 57-38 ATS this season, good for +14.43 units won.
Check back into the blog this week where we’ll highlight the Week 8 opening line report, Heisman odds, National Title odds, and more.