2016 NFL Season: Week 6 Betting Recap

Every Tuesday morning, the team at Sports Insights will examine some of the most interesting trends and results from the past week’s NFL action. We’ll also look at our betting systems, prop bets, futures movement, bad beats and more.

  • Based on the closing line at Pinnacle, underdogs went 8-6 ATS in Week 6. On the season, underdogs have gone 48-42 (52.3%).
  • Home teams went 9-5 ATS in Week 6, but they have still posted a losing record (43-46 ATS) on the season.
  • Home underdogs went 4-1 ATS in Week 6. They have gone 15-13 ATS (53.6%) this season but only 541-562 ATS (49.0%) since 2003.
  • Underdogs continue to provide excellent value in divisional rivalries. Last week underdogs went 3-1 ATS against divisional opponents.

  • Betting against the public had mixed results in Week 6. Teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets went 6-7 ATS, teams receiving less than 40% of spread bets went 3-2 ATS and teams receiving less than 30% of spread bets went 1-1 ATS.
  • In the most one-sided public betting of the week, the Patriots (closed -7) received 76% of spread bets against the Bengals. On the season, teams receiving at least 75% of spread bets have gone just 2-4 ATS.
  • Looking at our newly added money percentages, you can see that it was a decent week for sportsbooks. Teams receiving less than 50% of total dollars wagered went 8-6 ATS and teams receiving less than 39% of total dollars wagered went 3-2 ATS. No team received less than 31% of the money (BUF -7.5 vs. SF).
  • This season NFL underdogs have received a majority of spread bets in 22 of 90 games (24.4%). NFL underdogs have received a majority of the money in 32 of 90 games (35.5%).
  • In Week 6, teams coming off a win went 5-1 ATS.
  • Teams coming off a bye (JAX, KC, NO, SEA) went 3-1 ATS in Week 6. Since 2003, teams coming off their bye week have gone 219-193 ATS (53.2%). For those interested, the Vikings and Buccaneers had their bye in Week 6.

  • Any bettors following the line movement had an atrocious Week 6. When the line got at least a half-point worse (i.e. moving from +4 to +3.5 or -6.5 to -7), teams went 3-8 ATS.
  • Teams receiving less than 50% of spread tickets and more than 50% of the money have gone just 5-13 ATS this season.
  • NFL underdogs went 6-9 straight up in Week 6. Moneyline bettors would have earned +1.04 taking every ‘dog.
  • The biggest Week 6 moneyline upset occurred on Sunday afternoon with the Dallas Cowboys (+211) defeating the Green Bay Packers. It was just the seventh biggest upset of the season.
  • On the season, NFL underdogs have gone 41-51 (44.6%) with +16.44 units won on the moneyline.
  • In divisional games, road underdogs went 3-2 straight up (+1.98 units) in Week 6. This season divisional ‘dogs have gone 17-12 (+14.43 units) on the moneyline.
  • The over went 9-6 in Week 5, pushing the record to 51-41 (55.4%) on the season.
  • This season NFL overs have gone 17-6 when the closing total is less than 43.
  • A majority of public bettors have taken the over in 77 of 92 games (83.7%) this season.

  • There were two games that could be qualified as bad beats: Colts (+3) at Texans and Bears (-2.5) vs. Jaguars
  1. The Colts jumped out to an early 13-0 lead and actually held a 23-9 lead more than halfway through the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, the Texans scored two touchdowns in the final three minutes to force overtime, where Nick Novak eventually kicked the game-winning 33-yard field goal. That means anybody on Indy ended up settling for the push after the win looked guaranteed. The 26-23 final score was also a bad beat for anybody who took Under 48.
  2. Entering the fourth quarter, the Bears held a 13-0 lead and looked to be in control of the game. Clearly that was not the case. The Jaguars tallied 17-points in the fourth quarter including a 51-yard touchdown pass from Blake Bortles to Arrelious Benn with less than three minutes remaining. This qualifies as a bad beat for anybody who took the Bears on the spread or moneyline.
  • Matt Ryan leads the league with 2075 passing yards. Before the season he had the third-shortest odds (+850) to lead the league.
  • Ezekiel Elliott leads the league with 703 rushing yards. Before the season he was tied for the third-shortest odds (+900) to lead the league.
  • Julio Jones leads the league with 519 receiving yards. Before the season he was tied for the shortest odds (+350) to lead the league.
  • Wondering whether Dak Prescott will remain the Cowboys starting quarterback? Bookmaker posted a prop bet regarding when Tony Romo would make his first start of the season. For what it’s worth, the most likely outcome is Week 9 against the Browns.
  1. Week 8 (vs. PHI) +1000
  2. Week 9 (at CLE) +105
  3. Week 10 (at PIT) +350
  4. Week 11 (vs. BAL) +450
  5. Week 12 (vs. WAS) +2000
  6. Week 13 (at MIN) +4500
  7. Week 14 (at NYG) +4500
  8. Week 15 (vs. TB) +4500
  9. Week 16 (vs. DET) +5000
  10. Week 17 (at PHI) +5000
  11. Does Not Start in 2016 Regular Season +300
  • There are several key players listed as questionable, and we’ll be tracking their status throughout the week. Some of these players include: Carson Palmer (Probable, Hamstring), Terrell Suggs (Doubtful, Biceps), LeSean McCoy (Probable, Knee), Dez Bryant (Probable, Knee), Stefon Diggs (Doubtful, Groin), Ben Roethlisberger (Doubtful, Knee) and Doug Martin (Questionable, Hamstring). Check out the latest updates on our free NFL injury page.

Make sure to bookmark our free NFL odds page for the latest lines, public betting trends, futures and more.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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