2016 NFL Season: Week 4 Betting Recap
Every Tuesday morning, the team at Sports Insights will examine some of the most interesting trends and results from the past week’s NFL action. We’ll also look at our betting systems, prop bets, futures movement, bad beats and more.
- After going 10-6 ATS in Week 1, 9-7 ATS in Week 2, and 8-8 ATS in Week 3, underdogs went just 6-9 ATS in Week 4 . On the season underdogs have gone 33-30 ATS (52.38%) based on the closing line at Pinnacle. Assuming the standard -110 juice, bettors would have broken even taking every ‘dog.
- Betting against the public was a losing strategy in Week 4. Teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets went 6-9 ATS, teams receiving less than 40% of spread bets went 5-6 ATS and teams receiving less than 30% of spread bets went 2-2 ATS.
The Detroit Lions (closed -3 at Chicago) received 76% of spread bets, which made them the most popular side in Week 4. They lost 17-14. Betting against the public continues to be profitable in the most heavily bet games.
NFL teams receiving at least 75% of spread bets have gone 0-4 ATS this season.
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) October 4, 2016
- Looking at our newly added money percentages, you can see that it was a decent week for sportsbooks. Teams receiving less than 50% of the money went 9-6 ATS, teams receiving less than 40% of the money went 5-5 ATS and teams receiving less than 30% of the money went 3-4 ATS.
- Bettors would have done well to follow the line movement last week. When the line got worse (i.e. moving from +4 to +3.5 or -6 to -7), teams went 7-5 ATS.
- In Week 4, playoff teams went 6-3 ATS against non-playoff teams. Teams who won 6 games or fewer last season went just 3-8 ATS.
- Underdogs continue to provide value in division games. In Week 4 underdogs went 4-2 ATS against divisional opponents and 2-7 ATS in all other games. Underdogs in divisional games have gone 14-7 ATS (66.7%) this season and 644-598 ATS (51.9%) since 2003.
NFL road 'dogs in divisional games
This Season: 9-5 ATS (64.3%)
Since 2003: 440-370 ATS (54.3%)
— David Solar (@TheDavidSolar) October 4, 2016
- This season the favorite has received a majority of public support in 44 of 63 games (69.8%). A majority of public bettors have taken the over in 53 of 63 games (84.1%).
- After going 9-7 in each of the first three weeks, the over went 8-7 in Week 4. On the season, the over has gone 35-28 (55.6%).
- When a majority of public bettors are taking the under, the over has gone 8-2 this season.
- After four weeks there are still three teams who have covered the spread in every game: Denver, Minnesota, and Philadelphia. Every team in the league has covered the spread at least once.
- After seeing several shocking results in the first three weeks of the season, there were no massive upsets in Week 4. The biggest moneyline winner was the Bears (+112) over the Lions.
- Aside from Sam Bradford, it’s been an atrocious season for quarterbacks who were selected with the number one overall draft pick:
Sam Bradford = 3-0 ATS
All other #1 draft picks = 7-21 ATS
(Luck, Manning, Newton, Palmer, Smith, Stafford & Winston)
— David Solar (@TheDavidSolar) October 4, 2016
- This week there were two bad beats: San Diego (-4) against New Orleans and Cleveland (+7.5) against Washington. The Chargers defense allowed Drew Brees to throw two touchdown passes in the final five minutes, giving the Saints a stunning 35-34 victory. The Browns, who held a 20-17 lead entering the fourth quarter, were adversely affected by terrible officiating when the Redskins were granted possession of a fumble that Cleveland’s Duke Johnson clearly appears to recover.
- Matt Ryan leads the league with 1473 passing yards. Before the season he had the third-shortest odds (+850) to lead the league.
- Ezekiel Elliott leads the league with 412 rushing yards. Before the season he was tied for the third-shortest odds (+900) to lead the league.
- Julio Jones leads the league with 488 receiving yards. Before the season he was tied for the shortest odds (+350) to lead the league.
- There are several key injuries that we’ll be tracking throughout the week including Carson Palmer (Concussion), Cam Newton (Concussion) and Dez Bryant (Knee). Check out the latest updates on our free NFL injury page.
- The Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals, who were two of the preseason favorites to win the NFC, have both started the season 1-3. The Panthers are now -120 to make the playoffs while the Cardinals are +130 to make the playoffs.
- Updated Super Bowl Odds via BetOnline
|New England Patriots||450|
|Green Bay Packers||850|
|Kansas City Chiefs||2500|
|New York Giants||3300|
|Los Angeles Rams||5000|
|New York Jets||10000|
|New Orleans Saints||15000|
|San Diego Chargers||15000|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||25000|
|San Francisco 49ers||50000|
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