2016 March Madness: Sweet 16 Odds

Earlier this morning the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook posted odds for several prominent teams to reach the Sweet 16. Although Kansas (+467) is the favorite to win it all, North Carolina actually has the best odds of advancing past this weekend.

It was also interesting to see that despite being the 2-seed in the Midwest Region, Michigan State (-360) has better odds of reaching the Sweet 16 than the 1-seed, Virginia. The table below displays the current odds of making the Sweet 16 at Pinnacle.

School Yes No
North Carolina -800 +569
Kansas -500 +388
Virginia -400 +319
Michigan State -360 +291
Oklahoma -255 +212
Villanova -235 +197
Oregon -225 +189
Texas A&M -179 +152
Xavier -146 +125
West Virginia -145 +124
Kentucky -136 +116
Duke +111 -130
Utah +115 -134
Miami (FL) +126 -148
California +128 -150
Iowa State +188 -224

After viewing these Sweet 16 odds, we wanted to know if any of these futures were offering value so we consulted our bracket simulator. By converting these odds into implied probabilities, we were able to diagnose the largest discrepancies between the two sets of data. After taking our bracket simulator results and subtracting the implied probabilities based on Pinnacle’s odds, we were able to identify several excellent opportunities.

The table below displays the implied probabilities, simulator probabilities and the difference between the two numbers.

SCHOOL IMPLIED MAKING SIMULATOR MAKING Difference IMPLIED MISSING SIMULATOR MISSING Difference
North Carolina 88.89% 82.80% -6.09% 14.95% 17.20% 2.25%
Kansas 83.33% 77.40% -5.93% 20.49% 22.60% 2.11%
Virginia 80.00% 79.70% -0.30% 23.87% 20.30% -3.57%
Michigan State 78.26% 79.80% 1.54% 25.58% 20.20% -5.38%
Oklahoma 71.83% 68.10% -3.73% 32.05% 31.90% -0.15%
Villanova 70.15% 65.70% -4.45% 33.67% 34.30% 0.63%
Oregon 69.23% 66.80% -2.43% 34.60% 33.20% -1.40%
Texas A&M 64.16% 62.10% -2.06% 39.68% 37.90% -1.78%
Xavier 59.35% 59.80% 0.45% 44.44% 40.20% -4.24%
West Virginia 59.18% 60.50% 1.32% 44.64% 39.50% -5.14%
Kentucky 57.63% 50.20% -7.43% 46.30% 49.80% 3.50%
Duke 47.39% 49.60% 2.21% 56.52% 50.40% -6.12%
Utah 46.51% 41.20% -5.31% 57.26% 58.80% 1.54%
Miami (FL) 44.25% 47.60% 3.35% 59.68% 52.40% -7.28%
California 43.86% 38.60% -5.26% 60.00% 61.40% 1.40%
Iowa State 34.72% 45.40% 10.68% 69.14% 54.60% -14.54%

Based on these results, it seems clear that our bracket simulator believes that Iowa State’s odds of making the Sweet 16 (+188) are being vastly underestimated. Our simulations give the Cyclones a 45.4% probability of advancing to the Sweet 16, which equates to implied odds of +120.

We should also point out that their first round opponent, Iona, is a very trendy Cinderella pick. Our recent analysis found that this could create additional value on Iowa State (-8) in Thursday’s game.

Iowa State is definitely the strongest play but there are two additional value bets:

  1. Miami (+126) to make the Sweet 16
  2. Kentucky (+116) to miss the Sweet 16

Bettors should also be sure to visit our free college basketball odds page for the latest lines, injuries, public betting trends and more.

Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@SportsInsights.com

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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