There were a few gut-wrenchingly bad beats last week, so I’d like to offer my condolences to those who were backing UCLA and Cal. While last-minute covers like those are heartbreaking, it is important to keep those in perspective and realize they will happen every so often. The season is still young and there is plenty of time to recoup those losses, so it’s time to prepare for Week 5 if you haven’t done so already.
In this weekly column, we will provide bettors with information that will help them make smarter college football bets and figure out which teams are offering value.
What are the Week 5 line moves that matter? Here are three games that bettors need to take a look at. (2016 College Football Week 5 Line Moves That Matter)
LSU fired head coach Les Miles. Which active head coach is the favorite to replace him? (Who Will be the Next Football Coach at LSU?)
Just 2 weeks ago Les Miles was still listed at -320 to be the head coach of LSU on January 1, 2017. The 'No' was listed at +240.
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) September 26, 2016
Lamar Jackson (-160) remains the favorite to win the Heisman. Which players are on the rise? Whose odds took a hit? (2016 Heisman Odds)
What prompted Louisville to move from +3.5 to -1.5 in their showdown with Clemson? (NCAAF Game of the Week: Louisville at Clemson)
Royce Freeman (Knee), is upgraded to probable Saturday (10/1) at Washington State
Eric Dungey (Undisclosed), is upgraded to probable Saturday (10/1) vs. Notre Dame
Myles Garrett (Ankle), is questionable Saturday (10/1) at South Carolina
Leonard Fournette (Ankle), is out Saturday (10/1) vs. Missouri
Nick Chubb (Ankle), is out Saturday (10/1) vs. Tennessee
Key Line Movement
Notre Dame vs. Syracuse, 12:00 PM Eastern: Notre Dame (1-3) is four games into the 2016 season and has already matched its loss total in ’15. After a tough loss to Duke last week, the Fighting Irish are in desperate need of a win. Fortunately for Brian Kelly’s squad, oddsmakers like them. At the market-setting book Pinnacle, Notre Dame opened at -13 and our public betting trends indicate they have received 68% of spread tickets, but only 40% of total dollars wagered.
Since opening, Syracuse has moved from +13 to +9.5 even though they are receiving less than half of public support. It is also worth noting that on 9/28 a steam move was triggered at 5Dimes (50-28 ATS, +17.5 units), which demonstrates that sharp money was on Syracuse. Additionally, Syracuse’s starting QB Eric Dungey (illness) has been upgraded to probable, so expect that to factor into some of the line movement.
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