2016-17 Premier League Season Betting Review

The 2016-17 Premier League season didn’t give us the drama like last year where Leicester City won the title at 5000:1 odds, but there’s still plenty to break down from a betting perspective.

Chelsea won the title with 2 games to spare. Chelsea opened +550, reached +600, and closed +550 before the season.
Manchester United (20%) were the most popular pick to win the title at BetDSI, but Chelsea (12%) and Man City (12%) were next.

Value Plays had a very successful season earning +15.28 units and a 19% ROI. I tried to pick out anywhere from 1 to 4 plays each week and focused on fading the public (low ticket %’s) and reverse-line movement, similar to other sports.

Season Trends:
Home teams: 186 wins of 380 (+28.32 units)
Away teams: 109 wins of 380 (-77.50 units)
Draw: 85 wins of 380 (-35.45 units)

Biggest Upset Wins/Payouts:
Swansea +1200 at Liverpool (Week 23)
Crystal Palace +980 at Chelsea (Week 32)
West Ham +740 vs. Tottenham (Week 37)

Relegation odds from the preseason:
Hull City -145
Middlesbrough +190
Sunderland +280

Season Point Totals– OVERS:
Man City 76.5 (78)
Arsenal 71.5 (75)
Chelsea 71.5 (93)
Tottenham 66.5 (86)
Liverpool 66.5 (76)
Everton 53.5 (61)
Bournemouth 42.5 (46)
West Brom 41.5 (45)
Watford 38.5 (40)
Burnley 31.5 (40)
Hull 31.5 (34)

Manchester United were the only team to finish in the top 7 who fell below their Season Point Total. Arsenal’s 75 points were the most ever in the Premier League for a team finishing in 5th position.

Hull City went over their Season Point Total, but were still relegated.

Season Point Totals– UNDERS:
Man United 75.5 (69)
Leicester City 56.5 (44)
West Ham 52.5 (45)
Southampton 49.5 (46)
Stoke 45.5 (44)
Crystal Palace 44.5 (41)
Swansea 42.5 (41)
Sunderland 40.5 (24)
Middlesbrough 37.5 (28)

Top Goalscorer:  Harry Kane scored a ridiculous 7 goals in the final 2 games to win the scoring title. He finished with 29 goals, ahead of Lukaku (25) and Alexis (24). Kane was +710 to lead the Premier League in scoring before the season, while Lukaku was +1550 and Alexis +3000.

Top 4 Odds: Chelsea and Tottenham sealed their Top 4 fate with weeks to spare. Before the season Chelsea was -160 to finish in the Top 4 while Tottenham was +140. On the final day, Man City and Liverpool also sealed Top 4 finishes with Arsenal just missing out. Man City were -500 before the season to finish Top 4 while Liverpool were +150.

Pinnacle has already opened title odds for 2017-18 where Man City are the favorites at +240 followed by defending champs Chelsea at +300.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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