2016-17 Premier League Title Odds

Days after Leicester City pulled off one of sports’ greatest feats, winning the Premier League at 5000:1 odds, Paddy Power released title odds for the 2016-17 Premier League season. Leicester City opened at 33:1 odds there, behind several other teams. Since then, most sportsbooks have posted odds including 5Dimes, which I’ve added below.

Club July 29
July 13
May 16
May 8
(Paddy Power)
Manchester City +245 +250 +185 +162
Manchester United +320 +330 +720 +650
Chelsea +550 +520 +595 +550
Arsenal +600 +540 +595 +550
Liverpool +850 +800 +785 +800
Tottenham +875 +765 +670 +700
Leicester City +2900 +2000 +2000 +3300
West Ham +6500 +7000 +8000 +10000
Southampton +13000 +15000 +8500 +10000
Stoke City +50000 +70000 +50000 +30000
Crystal Palace +55000 +100000 +70000 +50000
Swansea +60000 +40000 +50000 +100000
Middlesbrough +75000 +100000 +50000 +100000
Everton +85000 +9500 +18000 +10000
Sunderland +90000 +150000 +70000 +100000
Watford +90000 +150000 +50000 +100000
Bournemouth +100000 +100000 +50000 +100000
Hull City +150000 +150000 +55000 N/A
Burnley +150000 +150000 +55000 +100000
West Brom +150000 +150000 +65000 +100000

BetOnline also opened a prop bet on the Manchester clubs vs. the field:
Manchester City or Manchester United win the Premier League: +100, Field wins the Premier League: -130

Below is my 2016-17 Season Preview along with relegation odds, season point totals, and top goalscorer odds

There’s been plenty of shake up in the offseason as there often is in the Premier League, with a number of new coaching changes (most notably Jose Mourinho to Manchester United and Pep Guardiola to Manchester City) at the top of the league as well as numerous transfers. Both Manchester clubs are the favorites to win the league this season but after what we saw last year, bettors shouldn’t feel bad about taking an underdog to win the crown.

However, at CRIS, it’s Manchester United receiving the most number of tickets to win the title with 19%, followed by Chelsea 12%, Manchester City 11%, and Liverpool 10%. Here’s a look at the most popular bets at CRIS to win the Premier League:

2016-17 EPL Title(4)

United are usually a popular bet, and now that they’ve splurged on guys like Ibrahimovic and Mikhitaryan (and possibly Pogba) they’re a trendy pick to get back to the top of the EPL. After a dismal first half last year, Man United actually came on strong despite a lackluster style and pace but I think they’re being overvalued this year. I personally don’t see them winning the league and think there’s plenty of value elsewhere.

A team that’s worth a bet is Arsenal at +600, as crazy as that sounds. Sure they’ve underperformed in recent years and continue to be stubborn as hell in the transfer window, but they still managed to finish 2nd last season and bring back their core. They’re currently listed behind both Manchesters and Chelsea, all of whom have changed managers in the offseason. Arsenal will look to their longtime manager Arsene Wenger to finally make the necessary adjustments required to win a Premier League title. He’s been able to win FA Cups in recent years but his collapses in the Champions League and Premier League could tarnish his legacy. It’s difficult to simply say that this year will be different, but it should be, and at +600 odds I like the value there.

Below shows season point totals for each club from Pinnnacle, relegation odds from 5Dimes, and top goalscorer odds from 5Dimes as well as my thoughts on each:

Season Point Totals (Pinnacle):

Club July 29 July 16
Manchester City 75.5 76.5
Manchester United 75.5 74.5
Arsenal 71.5 71.5
Chelsea 71.5 71.5
Tottenham 66.5 67.5
Liverpool 66.5 66.5
Leicester City 56.5 56.5
Everton 53.5 53.5
West Ham 52.5 51.5
Southampton 49.5 49.5
Stoke City 45.5 45.5
Crystal Palace 44.5 44.5
Swansea City 42.5 42.5
Bournemouth 42.5 41.5
West Bromich Albion 41.5 41.5
Sunderland 40.5 41.5
Watford 38.5 38.5
Middlesbrough 37.5 34.5
Burnley 31.5 31.5
Hull City 31.5 31.5

Last year’s title winners Leicester City have a season point total of 56.5, a number which falls 25 points below where they finished last season (81). On the surface it appears that oddsmakers have set a number too low on Leicester, but I actually think it’s a pretty solid number and would lean towards the Under. There’s no way they’ll come close to replicating last season despite making some nice signings, and I expect them to finish with about 53-54 points and a 9th or 10th place finish.

There are a few squads I’m particularly low on, and all facing potential relegation. The first is Swansea City Under 42.5. They really struggled in the second half last season and have lost nearly all their goalscorers heading into this season. Second is West Bromich Albion Under 41.5. I think they’re a definite candidate to be relegated, and I see them struggling to win double-digit games. Last is Sunderland Under 40.5, who have miraculously stayed in the Premier League due to late season magic. None of these teams did much to improve, and all are probably worse this year than last year. Not to mention, if these squads struggle early, they’ll be selling off or loaning players elsewhere.

Odds to be Relegated (5Dimes):

Club July 29 July 13
Hull City -145 -120
Burnley -110 -110
Middlesbrough +190 +140
Watford +240 +215
West Brom +280 +250
Sunderland +280 +305
Bournemouth +350 +290
Swansea +450 +440
Crystal Palace +575 +500
Stoke +1075 +1100
Leicester +1375 +1750
Southampton +1500 +1600
West Ham +2500 +2800
Everton +2850 +2000
Liverpool +32500 +30000
Chelsea +43000 +50000
Tottenham +52500 +50000
Arsenal +65000 +75000
Man Utd +75000 +75000
Man City +100000 +100000

Hull City have already lost manager Steve Bruce prior to the season, and are the favorites to be one of the teams relegated this year in their first year back to the Premier League. While I don’t think they’ll exactly impress this season, I believe they can do enough to stay up in the league. I’m basically doubling-down on all my Season Point Total Unders, and I like Swansea +450 to be relegated, Sunderland +280 to be relegated, and West Brom +280 to be relegated.

Top Goalscorer in the Premier League (5Dimes):

Player July 29 July 13
Sergio Aguero +360 +350
Harry Kane +710 +600
Zlatan Ibrahimovic +900 +800
Romelu Lukaku +1550 +1250
Diego Costa +1650 +1600
Michy Batshuayi +2000 +1800
Daniel Sturridge +2100 +1600
Jamie Vardy +2400 +1600
Olivier Giroud +2600 +2750
Alexis Sanchez +3000 +2200
Anthony Martial +3600 +2200
Kelechi Iheanacho +4000 +4000
Jermain Defoe +4000 N/A
Wayne Rooney +4000 N/A
Christian Benteke +4500 +3300
Marcus Rashford +5000 N/A
Nolito +5000 N/A
Eden Hazard +5000 N/A
Charlie Austin +5000 N/A
Kevin De Bruyne +6000 N/A
Callum Wilson +6000 N/A
Sadio Mane +6000 N/A
Odion Ighalo +6600 N/A
Riyad Mahrez +6600 N/A
Shane Long +6600 N/A
Saido Berahino +6600 N/A

It’s not going to be the flashiest pick, but I think there’s value on Sergio Aguero at +360 for most goals next season. He’s one of the most consistent, solid scorers around the world and Manchester City will score plenty of goals this season. Harry Kane edged Aguero by just 1 goal last season, but I expect Aguero to lead the league in 2016-17 if he can just stay healthy.

Are Leicester City not getting enough respect at 30:1? Are they getting TOO much respect at 30:1? Do you agree with the 3 relegation picks? Feel free to leave your thoughts and comments in the space below.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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