Days after Leicester City pulled off one of sports’ greatest feats, winning the Premier League at 5000:1 odds, Paddy Power released title odds for the 2016-17 Premier League season. Leicester City opened at 33:1 odds there, behind several other teams. Since then, most sportsbooks have posted odds including 5Dimes, which I’ve added below.
BetOnline also opened a prop bet on the Manchester clubs vs. the field:
Manchester City or Manchester United win the Premier League: +100, Field wins the Premier League: -130
Below is my 2016-17 Season Preview along with relegation odds, season point totals, and top goalscorer odds
There’s been plenty of shake up in the offseason as there often is in the Premier League, with a number of new coaching changes (most notably Jose Mourinho to Manchester United and Pep Guardiola to Manchester City) at the top of the league as well as numerous transfers. Both Manchester clubs are the favorites to win the league this season but after what we saw last year, bettors shouldn’t feel bad about taking an underdog to win the crown.
However, at CRIS, it’s Manchester United receiving the most number of tickets to win the title with 19%, followed by Chelsea 12%, Manchester City 11%, and Liverpool 10%. Here’s a look at the most popular bets at CRIS to win the Premier League:
United are usually a popular bet, and now that they’ve splurged on guys like Ibrahimovic and Mikhitaryan (and possibly Pogba) they’re a trendy pick to get back to the top of the EPL. After a dismal first half last year, Man United actually came on strong despite a lackluster style and pace but I think they’re being overvalued this year. I personally don’t see them winning the league and think there’s plenty of value elsewhere.
A team that’s worth a bet is Arsenal at +600, as crazy as that sounds. Sure they’ve underperformed in recent years and continue to be stubborn as hell in the transfer window, but they still managed to finish 2nd last season and bring back their core. They’re currently listed behind both Manchesters and Chelsea, all of whom have changed managers in the offseason. Arsenal will look to their longtime manager Arsene Wenger to finally make the necessary adjustments required to win a Premier League title. He’s been able to win FA Cups in recent years but his collapses in the Champions League and Premier League could tarnish his legacy. It’s difficult to simply say that this year will be different, but it should be, and at +600 odds I like the value there.
Below shows season point totals for each club from Pinnnacle, relegation odds from 5Dimes, and top goalscorer odds from 5Dimes as well as my thoughts on each:
Season Point Totals (Pinnacle):
|Club||July 29||July 16|
|West Bromich Albion||41.5||41.5|
Last year’s title winners Leicester City have a season point total of 56.5, a number which falls 25 points below where they finished last season (81). On the surface it appears that oddsmakers have set a number too low on Leicester, but I actually think it’s a pretty solid number and would lean towards the Under. There’s no way they’ll come close to replicating last season despite making some nice signings, and I expect them to finish with about 53-54 points and a 9th or 10th place finish.
There are a few squads I’m particularly low on, and all facing potential relegation. The first is Swansea City Under 42.5. They really struggled in the second half last season and have lost nearly all their goalscorers heading into this season. Second is West Bromich Albion Under 41.5. I think they’re a definite candidate to be relegated, and I see them struggling to win double-digit games. Last is Sunderland Under 40.5, who have miraculously stayed in the Premier League due to late season magic. None of these teams did much to improve, and all are probably worse this year than last year. Not to mention, if these squads struggle early, they’ll be selling off or loaning players elsewhere.
Odds to be Relegated (5Dimes):
|Club||July 29||July 13|
Hull City have already lost manager Steve Bruce prior to the season, and are the favorites to be one of the teams relegated this year in their first year back to the Premier League. While I don’t think they’ll exactly impress this season, I believe they can do enough to stay up in the league. I’m basically doubling-down on all my Season Point Total Unders, and I like Swansea +450 to be relegated, Sunderland +280 to be relegated, and West Brom +280 to be relegated.
Top Goalscorer in the Premier League (5Dimes):
|Player||July 29||July 13|
|Kevin De Bruyne||+6000||N/A|
It’s not going to be the flashiest pick, but I think there’s value on Sergio Aguero at +360 for most goals next season. He’s one of the most consistent, solid scorers around the world and Manchester City will score plenty of goals this season. Harry Kane edged Aguero by just 1 goal last season, but I expect Aguero to lead the league in 2016-17 if he can just stay healthy.
Are Leicester City not getting enough respect at 30:1? Are they getting TOO much respect at 30:1? Do you agree with the 3 relegation picks? Feel free to leave your thoughts and comments in the space below.
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