2016-17 Champions League Semifinals Betting Preview

2016-17 Champions League Semifinals Betting Preview

After Barcelona miraculously advanced past PSG, they couldn’t come back against Juventus in the quarterfinals. We now have the Italian giants playing Monaco of France in one semifinal, and two Spanish teams (Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid) facing off in the other matchup. Below shows odds to advance, Leg 1 betting trends, and odds to win it all.

Odds to Advance to the Champions League Final:
Real Madrid -160
Atletico Madrid +140

Monaco +225
Juventus -265

Juventus are expected to advance to the Final, and oddsmakers favor Real Madrid as their opponent. Monaco have been a great underdog to bet throughout the tournament, and having the opening leg at home could really put the pressure on Juventus.

In the opening leg of Real Madrid/Atletico Madrid, the majority of early bets has come in on home side Real Madrid, but line movement has been minimal around the market. Real Madrid have moved from -119 to -123 at Pinnacle, but they’ve actually dropped from -120 to -117 at CRIS. With so much familiarity between the two clubs, I could see Atletico Madrid possibly getting a draw here but bettors will want to monitor line movement and betting %’s up until game time.

Betting on the opening match of Monaco/Juventus has been tighter, with roughly 50% on Juventus and 40% on Monaco. Monaco have been a cash cow in the Champions League this year, and bettors seem to finally be catching on. They’re also closing in on a domestic Ligue 1 title, so their confidence is sky-high right now. I think Juventus would be pretty happy with an away draw in the opening leg, so there may be some value on it at +253 odds, especially with just 10% of tickets on the Draw.

And here’s the latest look at the odds to win the Champions League:

Club (Country)Apr 21
(5Dimes)
Mar 17
(5Dimes)
Jan 29
(5Dimes)
Dec 9
(5Dimes)
Aug 26
(CRIS)
June 27
(CRIS)
Juventus (ITA)+165+1075+1275+1400+1000+1400
Real Madrid (SPA)+170+550+475+500+475+475
Atletico Madrid (SPA)+400+600+900+1400+1400+1100
Monaco (FRA)+775+1450+6500+8500+10000N/A
Barcelona (SPA)N/A+280+330+305+300+275
FC Rostov (RUS)N/AN/AN/AN/A+15000N/A
Borussia Dortmund (GER)N/A+900+1300+1400+1700+2500
Leicester City (ENG)N/A+3200+5500+4500+5000+8000
Sevilla (SPA)N/AN/A+3000+5000+5000+5300
PSG (FRA)N/AN/A+3600+2800+1200+1300
Tottenham (ENG)N/AN/AN/AN/A+3300+5000
Manchester City (ENG)N/AN/A+1100+1200+900+1200
Napoli (ITA)N/AN/A+7000+5500+6000+4000
Porto (POR)N/AN/A+11000+12500+6000+10000
Benfica (POR)N/AN/A+13500+12500+8000+8000
Bayer Leverkusen (GER)N/AN/A+15500+10000+8000+6600
Bayern Munich (GER)N/A+310+395+350+400+400
Lyon (FRA)N/AN/AN/AN/A+15000+12500
Borussia Monchengladbach (GER)N/AN/AN/AN/A+15000+10000
Basel (SUI)N/AN/AN/AN/A+15000+25000
CSKA Moscow (RUS)N/AN/AN/AN/A+15000+15000
Ludogrets (BLG)N/AN/AN/AN/A+15000N/A
Legia Warsaw (POL)N/AN/AN/AN/A+50000N/A
Sporting (POR)N/AN/AN/AN/A+15000+15000
PSV Eindhoven (NED)N/AN/AN/AN/A+16600+15000
Besiktas (TUR)N/AN/AN/AN/A+20000+20000
Dynamo Kiev (UKR)N/AN/AN/AN/A+20000+20000
Copenhagen (DEN)N/AN/AN/AN/A+20000N/A
Club Brugge (BEL)N/AN/AN/AN/A+25000+25000
Celtic (SCO)N/AN/AN/AN/A+35000N/A
Dinamo Zagreb (CRO)N/AN/AN/AN/A+50000N/A
Arsenal (ENG)N/AN/A+2450+2000+2500+2300

Monaco reached 100:1 to win the Champions League at the start of the tournament, easily the biggest longshot of the remaining four teams. Juventus and Atletico Madrid both reached a high of +1400 during the tournament, while Real Madrid have been one of of the favorites throughout, reaching a peak of +550.


Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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