2016-17 Champions League Final Preview: Juventus vs. Real Madrid

2016-17 Champions League Final Preview: Juventus vs. Real Madrid

Real Madrid are back in the Champions League Final, ready to defend their title from the 2015-16 season when they beat Atletico Madrid in penalty kicks 5-3 (after drawing 1-1 in regulation and extra time). This time they’ll face Italian Serie A winners Juventus, who have already knocked out Barcelona in this competition this season. The final will take place on June 3rd at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, Wales. Here are each clubs’ Champions League title odds throughout the season:

Club (Country)May 11
Apr 21
Mar 17
Jan 29
Dec 9
Aug 26
June 27
Juventus (ITA)+110+165+1075+1275+1400+1000+1400
Real Madrid (SPA)-130+170+550+475+500+475+475
Atletico Madrid (SPA)N/A+400+600+900+1400+1400+1100
Monaco (FRA)N/A+775+1450+6500+8500+10000N/A
Barcelona (SPA)N/AN/A+280+330+305+300+275
FC Rostov (RUS)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000N/A
Borussia Dortmund (GER)N/AN/A+900+1300+1400+1700+2500
Leicester City (ENG)N/AN/A+3200+5500+4500+5000+8000
Sevilla (SPA)N/AN/AN/A+3000+5000+5000+5300
PSG (FRA)N/AN/AN/A+3600+2800+1200+1300
Tottenham (ENG)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+3300+5000
Manchester City (ENG)N/AN/AN/A+1100+1200+900+1200
Napoli (ITA)N/AN/AN/A+7000+5500+6000+4000
Porto (POR)N/AN/AN/A+11000+12500+6000+10000
Benfica (POR)N/AN/AN/A+13500+12500+8000+8000
Bayer Leverkusen (GER)N/AN/AN/A+15500+10000+8000+6600
Bayern Munich (GER)N/AN/A+310+395+350+400+400
Lyon (FRA)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000+12500
Borussia Monchengladbach (GER)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000+10000
Basel (SUI)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000+25000
CSKA Moscow (RUS)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000+15000
Ludogrets (BLG)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000N/A
Legia Warsaw (POL)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000N/A
Sporting (POR)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000+15000
PSV Eindhoven (NED)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+16600+15000
Besiktas (TUR)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+20000+20000
Dynamo Kiev (UKR)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+20000+20000
Copenhagen (DEN)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+20000N/A
Club Brugge (BEL)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000+25000
Celtic (SCO)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+35000N/A
Dinamo Zagreb (CRO)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000N/A
Arsenal (ENG)N/AN/AN/A+2450+2000+2500+2300

Juventus reached a high of +1400 during the tournament, while Real Madrid have been one of of the favorites throughout, reaching a peak of +550. These odds are to lift the trophy, so it includes extra time and penalty kicks.

As for the final matchup, here are the 3-way moneylines at Pinnacle (based on 90 minutes– if game goes to extra time, the DRAW wins):

Open to Current
Juventus +199 to +204
Real Madrid +167 to +166
Draw +221 to +217

Juventus opened +199 and dropped to +185 early on, but are now back up to +204. Real Madrid were available at +174 a couple weeks ago but tickets/money have brought them back down to +166. The draw opened +221, moved up to +235, but is down to +217. Here’s a look at odds at Pinnacle and the betting breakdown around the market on Juventus:

I tend to lean toward the draw for big final matchups, whether it’s the Champions League, World Cup, Euro Championships, etc and it’s been proven to be a profitable strategy. Finals are usually tightly-contested, highly-bet games where the public likes to pick a side to win but 3 of the last 5 finals have gone to extra time.

Right now more than 40% of tickets are on Real Madrid and more than 40% on Juventus. Less than 10% of tickets are on the Draw, yet we’ve still seen some reverse-line movement (+221 to +217) from open to current. If I’m making a bet on this game on the 3-way moneyline, it’s going to be on the Draw.

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

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