2014 World Cup Final: Germany vs. Argentina

2014 World Cup Final: Germany vs. Argentina

The 2014 World Cup final will take place on Sunday, July 13 at 3 pm ET between Germany and Argentina. In what were contrasting semifinal matches, Germany thrashed Brazil on their own turf 7-1 to advance, while Argentina outlasted Netherlands 4-2 in penalties after the two teams stalemated to 0-0 draw after regular time. Germany has opened as the favorite to win the final at Pinnacle and bettors have jumped on them quickly, with 82% of early bets on the German moneyline. Below are the opening 3-way lines and odds to win it all, but be sure to track all the latest line moves and betting percentages around the market at our free World Cup odds page.

3-way opening lines and total (via Pinnacle):

Germany +131

Argentina +254

Draw +228

O/U 2 (o-108)

To win the World Cup: Germany -148 / Argentina +136

Here’s a look at how the 2014 World Cup odds have changed for both Germany and Argentina since they opened back in December (odds via 5Dimes):

CountryCurrent (7/13/14)Pre-Semifinal (7/7/14)Pre-World Cup (6/11/14)Opener (12/15/13)

Heading into the World Cup, Germany was listed at +650 to win and Argentina was +440. It’s no real surprise that two of the favorites will meet for the World Cup trophy and below shows the odds to win prior to each tournament since these two countries first met in the final in 1986:

2010Spain +400Netherlands +1000
2006Italy +1000France +1400
2002Brazil +700Germany +2000
1998France +700Brazil +333
1994Brazil +333Italy +600
1990West Germany +700Argentina +1400
1986Argentina +400West Germany +1400

According to Pinnacle Sports, the final is expected to be the most wagered on sporting event in history. The folks over at William Hill have also already stated that they’ll need Argentina to come through for them with all the public bets they see coming in on Germany.

Before getting to the game outcome, there’s a prop bet on the line involving two players in this game, as Germany’s Thomas Muller (currently +190) has a chance to win the Golden Boot award. The favorite right now is Colombia’s James Rodriguez (-185), who finished the tournament with 6 goals and 2 assists, but Muller is trailing by just a single goal and leads by an assist (which determines the tiebreaker). Argentina’s Lionel Messi (+1600) is currently a longshot after being one the favorites heading into the tourney, as he has tallied 3 goals and would need a hat-trick in the final to win Golden Boot.

What’s most interesting about this prop is that James Rodriguez was listed as high as +30000 at 5Dimes before the World Cup to win this honor, which would surely be a decent payday for bettors who backed him. Even a small $5 bet on James at +30000 odds would earn a profit of $1,500.

Heading into the World Cup final, FiveThirtyEight.com are giving Germany a 61% probability to win, and 39% for Argentina. This comes out to implied odds of -161 for Germany and +156 for Argentina which is very similar to the actual odds of Germany -148 and Argentina +136.

Germany were solid in the group stage and got even better throughout the knockout stages, and they head into the final as rightful favorites with confidence, cohesiveness, and composure. Along with a starting XI that knows exactly what they want to execute, they have plenty of options on the bench at each position and arguably the best goalkeeper in the world as their last man of defense.

For Argentina, they have yet to look dominant in any game but have done enough to win every one, including Switzerland, Belgium, and the Netherlands in the knockout stages. They’ll need to put together their best effort of the tournament to have any shot of beating Germany in the final. In the semi against Netherlands, they lacked creativity to get enough quality shots off, but their defense played well enough to hold Holland from doing much either. A healthy di Maria would at least provide them with more width and space to allow for a better attack.

Though Germany seem to have the momentum to win it, we’ll go with Argentina to win the 2014 World Cup on Brazilian soil. If they can find ways to break down Germany and hold possession, they’ve shown they are organized enough to hold opponents from scoring. They were our pre-tournament pick to win it at +450 and the last match would be the perfect time to put together their best performance. We’ll also fade the public a bit as bettors will likely stick with Germany after their demolition of Brazil.

Do you agree that Argentina will be hoisting the trophy, or will Germany become the first European country to win the World Cup in the Americas?

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

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