Soon after the Patriots won Super Bowl XLIX, CG Technology released 2015 NFL Win Totals for all 32 teams. Despite the fact that free agency was yet to begin and the draft still months away, the prominent Las Vegas sportsbook was eager to be the first oddsmaker to post win totals.
Although these win totals fell in line with the Super Bowl futures at offshore sportsbooks, it’s worth nothing the juice was not available yet, which is significant on these types of prop bets.
Westgate (formerly LVH) then released 2015 NFL Win Totals on May 4th for all 32 teams, and BetOnline became the first major offshore sportsbook to join the festivities. Several months later we added the win totals from 5Dimes — one of the sharpest offshore sportsbooks.
The table below compares the current numbers from all four oddsmakers.
|Team||5Dimes (8/12)||BetOnline (5/7)||Westgate (May 4)||CG Technology (Feb 13)|
|Seahawks||11.5 (u-133)||11 (u-120)||11 (u-130)||11|
|Packers||11 (o-125)||10.5 (o-140)||11 (u-150)||10.5|
|Colts||11 (o-112)||10.5 (o-150)||10.5 (o-170)||9.5|
|Patriots||10 (o-150)||N/A||10.5 (o-130)||11|
|Broncos||10 (o-120)||10 (o-125)||10 (o-130)||10|
|Cowboys||9.5 (o-120)||9.5 (u-125)||9.5 (u-140)||9.5|
|Chiefs||9 (u-124)||8.5 (u-140)||8.5||8.5|
|Ravens||9 (o-135)||9||9 (u-125)||9|
|Eagles||9 (o-120)||9.5 (u-140)||9.5 (u-140)||9|
|Dolphins||9 (o-120)||N/A||9 (u-130)||8|
|Steelers||9 (u-121)||8.5 (u-130)||8.5 (u-130)||8.5|
|Bengals||8.5 (o-130)||8.5 (o-125)||8.5||8.5|
|Cardinals||8.5 (o-125)||8.5 (u-130)||8.5||8|
|Saints||8.5 (o-120)||8.5 (o-120)||9 (u-140)||9|
|Texans||8.5 (o-120)||8.5||8.5 (o-120)||8.5|
|Falcons||8.5 (u-115)||8 (o-125)||8 (o-135)||8.5|
|Panthers||8.5 (u-120)||8.5 (u-140)||8.5 (u-135)||8.5|
|Chargers||8.5 (u-125)||8.5||8 (o-120)||8.5|
|Lions||8 (o-130)||8.5 (u-140)||8.5 (u-140)||8.5|
|Giants||8 (o-129)||8 (o-125)||8 (o-140)||8|
|Vikings||8 (u-120)||7 (o-140)||7 (o-130)||6.5|
|Rams||7.5 (o-131)||8 (o-120)||8||7.5|
|Jets||7.5 (u-145)||N/A||7 (o-140)||6.5|
|49ers||6.5||7 (o-125)||7.5 (u-140)||8.5|
|Bears||6.5||7 (u-155)||7 (u-150)||7|
|Buccaneers||6 (u-121)||5.5 (o-140)||6 (u-140)||5|
|Jaguars||5.5 (o-135)||5.5 (o-140)||5.5 (o-170)||5.5|
|Raiders||5.5 (o-115)||5.5 (u-160)||5.5 (u-140)||4.5|
|Titans||5.5 (u-115)||5.5 (u-140)||5.5 (u-120)||5|
Over the past three months, we have seen a lot of movement across the win totals marketplace. We’ve previously discussed how Deflategate has affected the Patriots win total, but New England isn’t the only team to see their win total change dramatically.
On Tuesday (8/11), Jets quarterback Geno Smith was sucker punched by a teammate and suffered a broken jaw which will sideline the presumed starter for 6-10 weeks. With Ryan Fitzpatrick replacing Smith, the Jets win total has actually ticked up from 7 to 7.5 (although there were also major adjustments involving the juice).
The Seattle Seahawks also improved from an over/under of 11 to 11.5 while the Philadelphia Eagles dropped from 9.5 to 9, however, the most interesting case involves the San Francisco 49ers.
Back in February, San Francisco’s win total opened at 8.5 and immediately bettors pounded the under and spoke at length about the team was being vastly overrated. When the Westgate opened their win total in May, the total had dropped a full game from 8.5 to 7.5.
With a recent streak of bad news including the release of former Pro Bowl DE Aldon Smith and the unexpected retirement of OT Anthony Davis, the Niners continued their free fall and are now projected to win just 6.5 games this upcoming season.
Do you think any teams are offering value? Will the Vikings be able to improve with Adrian Peterson’s imminent return? Please leave any thoughts in the comment section below.