Every Tuesday morning, the team at Sports Insights will examine some of the most interesting trends and results from the past week’s NFL action. Now that the regular season has concluded, we will look back at the top trends, prop bets, and more from the past season.
- During the 2015-16 regular season, underdogs posted a record of 134-114 ATS (54.0%). The optimal spread range for underdogs was teams getting at least 5-points, as they finished the season with a record of 57-41 ATS (58.2%).
- Visitors were similarly profitable last season, posting a record of 133-112 ATS (54.3%). When we look at road underdogs, that record improves to 92-71 ATS (56.4%). When we look at road underdogs of at least 5-points that record jumps to 45-29 ATS (60.8%).
- The table below displays the results from betting against the public this past season:
|Public Betting||Record (ATS)||Win Rate||Units Won|
- Those results improve tremendously when we examine contrarian road teams:
|Public Betting||Record (ATS)||Win Rate||Units Won|
- Last season there were only four favorites to receive less than 30% of spread bets — all of which were exactly 1-point home favorites.
- Tennessee Titans (-1) vs. Buffalo Bills – Lost 14-13
- St. Louis Rams (-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – Lost 12-6
- Dallas Cowboys (-1) vs. Atlanta Falcons – Lost 39-28
- Cleveland Browns (-1) vs. Tennessee Titans – Won 28-14
- We frequently discuss how underdogs have been historically undervalued in low-scoring games. This season ‘dogs were 55-43 ATS (56.1%) when the closing total was less than 44.
- Teams coming off a loss were just 110-123 ATS (47.2%) in their subsequent game.
- Teams who were playing in at least their third consecutive home game were 9-4 ATS (69.2%).
- Teams who covered the spread in their previous game were 117-107 ATS (52.2%) last season.
- Teams who made the playoffs last season went 62-52 ATS (54.4%) when their opponent failed to make the postseason.
- Teams who were held to 7 or fewer points in their previous game went 18-10 ATS last season.
- $100/game bettors would have earned $2,035 by taking every NFL road team on the moneyline this season.
- The Chiefs were the only team in the league to have five consecutive games without committing a turnover. Teams who went at least two consecutive games without a turnover were 16-11 ATS in their following game.
- Last season the under went 131-120 (52.2%), but that record improves to 73-57 (56.2%) when the closing total was at least 45.
- When the closing total was 41 or less, the over went 19-12 (61.3%).
- Panthers QB Cam Newton, who is considered the strong favorite to be named NFL MVP, was listed at +1500 to win the award prior to the start of the season. Aaron Rodgers (+300) was the pre-season favorite.
- Rams RB Todd Gurley, who many believe will be named Offensive Rookie of the Year, was listed at +900 to win the award prior to the start of the season. Jameis Winston (+550) was the pre-season favorite.
- Best Teams ATS:
- Minnesota Vikings 13-3
- Cincinnati Bengals 12-3-1
- Carolina Panthers 11-5
- Pittsburgh Steelers 9-6-1
- Worst Teams ATS:
- Dallas Cowboys 4-11-1
- Tennessee Titans 4-11-1
- Miami Dolphins 5-11
- Baltimore Ravens 5-9-2
- Biggest moneyline upsets using closing lines from Pinnacle
- Detroit Lions (+491) over Green Bay Packers – 11/15/15
- St. Louis Rams (+480) over Seattle Seahawks – 12/27/15
- Baltimore Ravens (+461) over Pittsburgh Steelers – 12/27/15
- Houston Texans (+400) over Cincinnati Bengals – 11/16/15
- League leaders along with their preseason odds at 5Dimes:
- Passing Yards: Drew Brees (+700 – 3rd shortest odds)
- Rushing Yards: Adrian Peterson (+450 – shortest odds)
- Receiving Yards: Julio Jones (+700 – 2nd shortest odds)
- Every week we highlight the worst beats for bettors, and the Week 13 matchup between the Packers and Lions was one of the toughest losses in recent memory. The Lions (closed +2.5) jumped out to a 20-0 early in the second quarter. They maintained a two possession lead until an Aaron Rodgers 17-yard touchdown cut the Lions lead to 23-21 with 3:04 remaining. Green Bay eventually got the ball back with 23 seconds remaining. After two incomplete passes, the Packers drew a questionable face mask penalty on a desperation hook and lateral play. This meant Aaron Rodgers would get one untimed down from their 39-yard line. What happened next was nothing short of miraculous. A 61-yard Hail Mary pass from Aaron Rodgers to Richard Rodgers gave Green Bay the unlikely win, cover and pushed the game over the closing total (46).
- Featured betting systems records last season:
- 2015 NFL Betting Against the Public System: 8-4 ATS, +3.67 units
- Updated 80/20 System: 2-1 ATS, +0.93 units won
- ESPN Contrarian Picks: 25-19 ATS (56.82%)
- Top Performing Bet Signals:
- Steam: Pinnacle (54-42 ATS, +6.59 units)
- Reverse Line Move: Heritage (39-23 ATS, +11.83 units)
Thanks for reading! Don’t forget to read check out our latest opening line report for early analysis on the Wild Card games this weekend. Curious about any additional trends from the past season? Leave any questions in the section below and we’ll try our best to answer them in a timely fashion.
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David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com
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