Every Tuesday morning, the team at Sports Insights will examine some of the most interesting trends and results from the past week’s NFL action. We’ll also look at our betting systems, prop bets, bad beats and more before looking ahead to the following week.
- Underdogs went 10-6 ATS in Week 16, breaking a streak of four consecutive winning weeks for favorites. On the season, underdogs have gone 123-109 ATS (53.0%).
- Sunday was also very profitable for moneyline bettors, with several underdogs winning straight up:
NFL underdogs went 7-8 on the moneyline for +9.52 units in Week 16 including wins by STL (+480), BAL (+461), and ATL (+239).
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) December 28, 2015
- Visitors went 8-8 ATS in Week 16, pushing their record to 123-106 ATS (53.7%) on the season. Road underdogs have been particularly profitable with an 84-68 ATS (55.3%) record.
- Last week there were three double-digit underdogs — all of whom covered the closing spread at Pinnacle: Cleveland (+11.5 at Kansas City), St. Louis (+11 at Seattle) and Baltimore (+11 vs. Pittsburgh).
- In the biggest upset of the week, the Rams (closed +11 on the spread, +480 on the moneyline) defeated the Seahawks by six-points. That was the most unlikely win since the Lions (closed +10.5 on the spread, +491 on the moneyline) defeated the Packers back in mid-November.
- Underdogs of 10+ points have gone 12-10 ATS this season and 229-203 ATS (53.0%) all-time.
- As we have explained before, the majority of spread bets are typically placed on the favorite. That means that when underdogs win, our betting against the public strategies are typically profitable. In Week 16 teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets were 10-6 ATS, teams receiving less than 40% of spread bets were 8-4 ATS and teams receiving less than 30% of spread bets were 2-0 ATS.
- On the season teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets have gone 119-109 ATS, teams receiving less than 40% of spread bets have gone 75-73 ATS, teams receiving less than 30% of spread bets have gone 30-29 ATS and teams receiving less than 20% of spread bets have gone 5-3 ATS.
- Since many teams have already locked up playoff spots and will rest their starters, some of the largest line moves take place during Week 17 of the NFL season. The most significant line moves typically involve starting quarterbacks being benched or only playing the first half. The Cowboys/Redskins game is particularly interesting, since Washington has nothing at stake this week. It will be interesting to see if Kirk Cousins is named the starter.
- Since 2003, favorites have gone 86-69 ATS (55.5%) in Week 17. That win rate improves to 57.3% when we focus solely on home favorites.
- Every Week 17 matchup features divisional rivals and, as we have constantly reiterated, underdogs are tremendously undervalued in divisional games. Underdogs have gone 619-586 ATS (51.4%) in divisional games, however, that record suffers tremendously in the final week of the season. Since 2003, underdogs have gone 48-66 ATS (42.1%) in Week 17 divisional games.
- Picking this week’s worst beat was exceedingly difficult, but it’s tough to overlook Sunday’s Patriots/Jets game. The Jets (closed +2.5) were in control throughout the game, holding a 17-3 lead early in the third quarter. New England eventually tied the game 20-20 with less than two minutes remaining in regulation, but that’s when things got really interesting. The Patriots won the overtime coin toss, but surprisingly elected to kick off. The Jets took the ball and drove 80 yards in 5 plays, culminating with a 6-yard touchdown pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Eric Decker. That score gave the Jets the win, the cover, and the unlikely over (total closed 45.5).
- The Panthers, who closed -7 on the spread and -330 on the moneyline, suffered their first loss of the season on Sunday. Entering the week, Carolina was listed at -160 to finish the regular season with a perfect 16-0 record.
- Odds to win the AFC
- New England Patriots +110
- Denver Broncos +415
- Kansas City Chiefs +650
- Cincinnati Bengals +700
- Pittsburgh Steelers +1000
- New York Jets +1600
- Houston Texans +3300
- Indianapolis Colts +990000
- Odds to win the NFC
- Arizona Cardinals +190
- Carolina Panthers +200
- Seattle Seahawks +420
- Green Bay Packers +750
- Minnesota Vikings +1600
- Washington Redskins +2500
- Odds to win Super Bowl 50
- New England Patriots +310
- Arizona Cardinals +400
- Carolina Panthers +445
- Seattle Seahawks +825
- Denver Broncos +1100
- Kansas City Chiefs +1450
- Green Bay Packers +1700
- Cincinnati Bengals +1900
- Pittsburgh Steelers +2600
- Minnesota Vikings +4000
- New York Jets +4500
- Washington Redskins +6000
- Houston Texans +8500
- Indianapolis Colts +990000
- Most likely Super Bowl matchups
- New England Patriots vs Arizona Cardinals +521
- New England Patriots vs Carolina Panthers +543
- New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks +1020
- Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals +1430
- Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers +1485
- New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers +1770
- Kansas City Chiefs vs Arizona Cardinals +2175
- Kansas City Chiefs vs Carolina Panthers +2250
- Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals +2335
- Cincinnati Bengals vs Carolina Panthers +2420
Looking forward to next week? Don’t forget to read our Week 17 Opening Line Report for early line movement and a comparison to preseason lines from CG Technology.
Make sure to bookmark our free NFL odds page for the latest lines, public betting trends, injuries, futures and more. Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com
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