2015 NFL Season: Week 14 Betting Recap

Every Tuesday morning, the team at Sports Insights will examine some of the most interesting trends and results from the past week’s NFL action. We’ll also look at our betting systems, prop bets, bad beats and more before looking ahead to the following week.

  • Favorites had their third consecutive winning week, posting a 9-7 ATS record during Week 14. Since going 2-14 ATS in Week 10, favorites have gone 34-25 ATS.
  • Visitors have also continued their winning ways, going 9-7 ATS in Week 14. On the season, road teams have gone 107-91 ATS (54%) and road underdogs have gone 73-58 ATS (55.7%).
  • As we have explained before, the majority of spread bets are typically placed on the favorite. That means that when favorites win, our betting against the public strategies suffer. In Week 14 teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets were 8-8 ATS, teams receiving less than 40% of spread bets were 3-4 ATS and teams receiving less than 30% of spread bets were 1-4 ATS.
  • Although betting against the public struggled last week, it continues to be a profitable strategy on the season. This year teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets have gone 103-94 ATS, teams receiving less than 40% of spread bets have gone 66-62 ATS, teams receiving less than 30% of spread bets have gone 28-24 ATS and teams receiving less than 20% of spread bets have gone 4-3 ATS.
  • This season the optimal threshold for betting against the public has been teams receiving 35% of spread bets or less. Those teams have been exceptionally profitable when they lost their previous game by double-digits.

Contrarian Team After Big Loss

  • This week there are four teams who are offering contrarian value coming off a big loss: Dallas (+3), Tennessee (+14), Baltimore (+7.5) and San Francisco (+4.5).
  • Playoff teams from last season have gone 50-41 ATS (54.9%) against teams who missed the playoffs.
  • Underdogs of at least 5-points have gone 46-30 ATS (60.5%) this season. When we focus solely on road teams, that win rate improves to 63.8%.
  • The under went 12-4 in Week 14 which pushes the record to 105-98 on the season.
  • When the closing total is greater than 46, the under has gone 38-28 (57.6%) this season.
  • There were two significant upsets this week, with a pair of 6-point underdogs winning straight up. The Oakland Raiders (closed +6 on the spread, +225 on the moneyline) defeated the Denver Broncos by 3-points while the New Orleans Saints (closed +6 on the spread, +210 on the moneyline) beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7-points. The Saints/Bucs total was 9-points higher than the Raiders/Broncos total which explains the 15-cent discrepancy on the moneyline.
  • The Cleveland Browns defeated the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. This is excellent news for head coach Mike Pettine, who oddsmakers believe is firmly on the hot seat.

  • Last week’s Packers/Lions game featured two of the worst beats in recent memories, so it’s difficult to compare any game from Week 14. Perhaps the worst beat was this week’s Steelers/Bengals game where a meaningless touchdown pass from AJ McCarron to Rex Burkhead with 1:03 remaining in the game made the score 33-20. This pushed the game over the closing total of 49.
  • The Panthers annihilated the Falcons this week to keep their undefeated season alive. This win caused Carolina’s odds of going undefeated during the regular season to improve from +300 to +140. Carolina is also listed at +740 to post the perfect 19-0 season, but they’re not the favorite to win the Super Bowl.

  • Wondering which AFC teams will land the final wild card spots? The Chiefs are -750 to make the playoffs, the Steelers are -260 to make the playoffs and the Jets are +160 to make the playoffs.
  • The Redskins, Eagles and Cowboys are tied atop the NFC East standings with all three teams owning 6-7 records. However, oddsmakers believe that Philadelphia has the best chance of winning the division.

  • Remaining games for each team:
  1. Eagles: Cardinals, Redskins, @Giants
  2. Redskins: Bills, @Eagles, @Cowboys
  3. Giants: Panthers, @Vikings, Eagles
  4. Cowboys: Jets, @Bills, Redskins

  • Odds of winning the NFC:
  1. Carolina Panthers +130
  2. Arizona Cardinals +250
  3. Seattle Seahawks +475
  4. Green Bay Packers +550
  5. Minnesota Vikings +2800
  6. Philadelphia Eagles +3000
  7. New York Giants +3300
  8. Washington Redskins +5500
  9. Dallas Cowboys +9000
  10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +15000
  • Odds of winning the AFC:
  1. New England Patriots +115
  2. Denver Broncos +445
  3. Pittsburgh Steelers +550
  4. Cincinnati Bengals +850
  5. Kansas City Chiefs +950
  6. Indianapolis Colts +2500
  7. New York Jets +3300
  8. Houston Texans +5000
  9. Buffalo Bills +10000
  10. Jacksonville Jaguars +12500
  11. Oakland Raiders +25000
  12. Miami Dolphins +35000
  • Super Bowl 50 Futures:
  1. New England Patriots +330
  2. Carolina Panthers +400
  3. Arizona Cardinals +715
  4. Seattle Seahawks +730
  5. Pittsburgh Steelers +1100
  6. Green Bay Packers +1125
  7. Denver Broncos +1150
  8. Cincinnati Bengals +2000
  9. Kansas City Chiefs +2000
  10. Minnesota Vikings +6600
  11. Indianapolis Colts +7000
  12. New York Giants +7500
  13. Philadelphia Eagles +7500
  14. New York Jets +9000
  15. Houston Texans +15000
  16. Washington Redskins +17500
  17. Dallas Cowboys +20000
  18. Buffalo Bills +30000
  19. Jacksonville Jaguars +32500
  20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +40000
  21. Miami Dolphins +100000
  22. Oakland Raiders +100000
  • There were a number of key injuries last week including:
  1. Jonathan Stewart, Questionable, Foot
  2. Vincent Jackson, Out Indefinitely, Knee
  3. Joe Haden, Out For Year, Concussion
  4. Andrew Luck, Doubtful, Kidney
  5. DeSean Jackson, Questionable, Knee
  6. Andy Dalton, Out Indefinitely, Thumb

Looking forward to next week? Don’t forget to read our Week 15 Opening Line Report for early line movement and a comparison to preseason lines from CG Technology.

Make sure to bookmark our free NFL odds page for the latest lines, public betting trends, injuries, futures and more. Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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