2015 NFL Betting: Who Will Lead the League in Touchdowns?

Earlier this offseason we posted a series of articles which examined the odds for various players to lead the league in passing, rushing, receiving and sacks. The juice on these props is typically astronomical which can make it very difficult to find players offering value; however, it does provide insight into the expectations of oddsmakers. This information can also be very useful for fantasy football managers who looking for players who are being under ranked by the draft experts.

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Back in late July, the prominent offshore sportsbook 5Dimes posted odds for 42 different players to lead the league in total touchdowns. For those who are unfamiliar, this category excludes quarterbacks and focuses primarily on running backs and receivers.

The table below displays the current odds at 5Dimes and will be updated throughout the offseason.

Player 5Dimes (8/6)
Dez Bryant +650
Jamaal Charles +650
Marshawn Lynch +650
Rob Gronkowski +900
Adrian Peterson +900
Odell Beckham Jr. +900
Eddie Lacy +1000
Demaryius Thomas +1400
Arian Foster +1400
DeMarco Murray +1800
Antonio Brown +2000
LeVeon Bell +2500
Jordy Nelson +2500
C.J. Anderson +2500
Mark Ingram +2500
Calvin Johnson +2500
Jimmy Graham +2500
Mike Evans +3300
Julio Jones +3300
A.J. Green +3300
LeSean McCoy +3300
Matt Forte +3300
Jeremy Hill +3300
Randall Cobb +3300
Frank Gore +4000
Jordan Matthews +5000
Alshon Jeffery +5000
Alfred Morris +6600
T.Y. Hilton +6600
Joseph Randle +6600
Melvin Gordon +6600
Lamar Miller +8000
Kelvin Benjamin +8000
LeGarrette Blount +8000
Emmanuel Sanders +8000
Justin Forsett +8000
Carlos Hyde +8000
Martavius Bryant +8000
Brandon Marshall +8000
Isaiah Crowell +8000
Dwayne Allen +10000
Amari Cooper +10000

At the time of publication three players are listed as co-favorites with Dez Bryant, Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch all listed at +650. Last season Lynch led the league with 17 total touchdowns (13 rush, 4 rec) but Bryant was right on his heels with 16 TD’s.

One of the most interesting names listed is Antonio Brown whose 14 touchdowns ranked third in football last year. The 27-year old receiver has tallied 239 receptions for 3,197 yards and 21 touchdowns over the past two seasons, but has just the 11th best odds (+2000) to lead the league in scoring. Clearly oddsmakers believe that Brown’s lack of size detracts from his value in the red zone, but an elite first allows Brown to quickly separate from his defender and create passing lanes for his quarterback.

These odds seem to greatly favor running backs over wide receivers, but that philosophy seems outdated. The NFL has become more and more of a passing league and quarterbacks are consistently posting statistics that rank among the best all-time. Last season 24 players recorded at least ten total touchdowns, and 15 of them were either wide receivers or tight ends. Running backs may have led the league in touchdowns in each of the past seven seasons, but the tide is changing.

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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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