2015 NFL Preview: Which Player Will Lead the League in Sacks?
Since the NBA season ended several weeks ago, sportsbooks have had to rely almost solely on baseball to generate revenue. In order to offset this lull in the sports calendar, many offshore oddsmakers have started rolling out NFL related betting opportunities.
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In the past week alone we’ve seen betting opportunities posted for the MVP Award, Coach of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, Playoff Odds and a number of additional prop bets — including a handful involving the ever-divisive Tim Tebow.
In the past two weeks Tim Tebow's odds of making the #Eagles 53-man roster have moved from +180 to +130. The implied probability is now 40%.
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) July 21, 2015
Over the last ten days, the odds of Tim Tebow starting a game at QB next season have moved from +500 to +380.
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) July 17, 2015
On Monday morning, the offshore sportsbook BetOnline posted a unique prop bet regarding which player will lead the league in sacks this season. For years there have been number of oddsmakers that have posted over/under for sack totals, but it’s tough to recall seeing a sack leader prop bet posted.
The table below displays the odds for 41 different defensive players to lead the league in sacks. Dead heat rules apply, meaning if two players tie for the lead you would only receive half of your stake.
| Player (Team) | BetOnline (7/21) |
|---|---|
| Justin Houston (KC) | +350 |
| J.J. Watt (HOU) | +350 |
| Elvis Dumervil (BAL) | +800 |
| Robert Quinn (STL) | +800 |
| Von Miller (DEN) | +800 |
| Mario Williams (BUF) | +1400 |
| Everson Griffin (MIN) | +1600 |
| Ryan Kerrigan (WSH) | +1600 |
| Clay Matthews (GB) | +1600 |
| Connor Barwin (PHI) | +2000 |
| Terrell Suggs (BAL) | +2000 |
| Charles Johnson (CAR) | +2000 |
| Chandler Jones (NE) | +2000 |
| Cameron Wake (MIA) | +2000 |
| Aldon Smith (SF) | +2000 |
| Carlos Dunlap (CIN) | +3300 |
| Ezekiel Ansah (DET) | +3300 |
| Brandon Graham (PHI) | +3300 |
| Gerald McCoy (TB) | +3300 |
| Jadeveon Clowney (HOU) | +4000 |
| Jerry Hughes (BUF) | +5000 |
| Cameron Jordan (NO) | +5000 |
| DeMarcus Ware (DEN) | +5000 |
| Greg Hardy (DAL) | +5000 |
| Junior Galette (NO) | +5000 |
| Damontre Moore (NYG) | +5000 |
| Paul Kruger (CLE) | +5000 |
| Chris Long (STL) | +6600 |
| Chris Clemons (JAX) | +6600 |
| Aaron Donald (STL) | +6600 |
| Ndamukong Suh (MIA) | +6600 |
| Jarvis Jones (PIT) | +6600 |
| Rob Ninkovich (NE) | +6600 |
| Jacquies Smith (TB) | +6600 |
| Randy Gregory (DAL) | +8000 |
| Julius Peppers (GB) | +8000 |
| Geno Atkins (CIN) | +8000 |
| Vic Beasley (ATL) | +8000 |
| Brian Orakpo (TEN) | +8000 |
| Quinton Coples (NYJ) | +8000 |
| Marcell Dareus (BUF) | +8000 |
Last season Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston led the league with 22 sacks while Texans defensive end J.J. Watt ranked second with 20.5 sacks. These two players opened as +350 co-favorites to record the most sacks in 2015.
It’s tough to point out any players that are offering value but Bills DE Mario Williams should benefit from the hiring of Rex Ryan and the improved play of his young defensive teammates. Currently listed at +1400, Williams recorded a career-high 14.5 sacks last season and could seek to improve on that number.
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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.
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