2015-16 Champions League Title Odds

Shortly after Barcelona won the 2014-15 Champions League Title, sportsbooks began releasing odds for this season’s tournament. To no one’s surprise, defending champions Barcelona were the early favorites to repeat, with fellow Spanish side Real Madrid and German giants Bayern Munich close behind. While some teams automatically qualified for the tournament, a number of teams had to go through preliminary stages before reaching the Round of 32. The final game takes place on May 28, 2016 at the San Siro in Milan, Italy.

Below shows the odds to win the 2015-16 Champions League Title at 5Dimes sportsbook and will continue to be updated until the final in May:

Club (Country) Apr 14, 2016 Apr 4 Feb 15 Dec 14 Oct 19 Aug 28 Aug 15 Jun 7, 2015
Bayern Munich (GER) +150 +265 +285 +280 +310 +450 +500 +450
Real Madrid (SPA) +280 +510 +500 +630 +490 +500 +500 +450
Atletico Madrid (SPA) +350 +2150 +1200 +1400 +2350 +1600 +1800 +1400
Man City (ENG) +750 +2200 +1350 +1200 +1550 +1200 +1600 +1200
Juventus (ITA) N/A N/A +3250 +3650 +2500 +2000 +1600 +1200
PSG (FRA) N/A +800 +1300 +1450 +1200 +1600 +1600 +1200
Wolfsburg (GER) N/A +12500 +6500 +5000 +125000 +5000 +5000 +5000
Benfica (POR) N/A +12500 +14950 +16000 +9000 +8000 +6600 +6600
Arsenal (ENG) N/A N/A +3850 +2650 +4650 +2000 +2000 +1800
Malmo (SWE) N/A N/A N/A N/A +500000 +100000 N/A N/A
Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS) N/A N/A +8950 +9000 +15000 +10000 +10000 +8000
AS Roma (ITA) N/A N/A +13500 +12000 +12500 +6600 +6600 +5000
Chelsea (ENG) N/A N/A +2300 +2050 +1950 +800 +800 +750
PSV (NED) N/A N/A +28000 +29000 +50000 +15000 +15000 +15000
Dynamo Kiev (UKR) N/A N/A +44900 +25000 +50000 +20000 +25000 +15000
Gent (BEL) N/A N/A +51000 +45000 +125000 +75000 +75000 +25000
Barcelona (SPA) N/A +155 +220 +260 +320 +275 +300 +275
Bayer Leverkusen (GER) N/A N/A N/A N/A +12500 +10000 +10000 +6600
Valencia (SPA) N/A N/A N/A N/A +7000 +4000 +5000 +5000
Olympiakos (GRE) N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 +25000 +25000 +15000
FC Porto (POR) N/A N/A N/A N/A +6500 +8000 +6600 +6600
Man United (ENG) N/A N/A N/A N/A +2450 +1400 +2000 +1800
Monchengladbach (GER) N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 +15000 +10000 +8000
Sevilla (SPA) N/A N/A N/A N/A +9500 +6600 +5000 +4000
Dinamo Zagreb (CRO) N/A N/A N/A N/A +100000 +75000 N/A N/A
Shaktar Donetsk (UKR) N/A N/A N/A N/A +100000 +12500 +15000 +15000
CSKA Moscow (RUS) N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +20000 +25000 +15000
Lyon (FRA) N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +10000 +6600 +8000
BATE Borisov (BLS) N/A N/A N/A N/A +400000 +75000 N/A N/A
Maccabi Tel Aviv (ISR) N/A N/A N/A N/A +500000 +75000 N/A N/A
FC Astana (KAZ) N/A N/A N/A N/A +500000 +100000 N/A N/A
Galatasary (TUR) N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 +15000 +15000 +10000

We’ve now entered the semifinals and Barcelona has already been eliminated by fellow Spanish side Atletico Madrid. Here are the semifinal matchups:

Bayern Munich vs. Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid vs. Manchester City

Heading into the quarterfinals of the Champions League, Barcelona and Bayern Munich remained the frontrunners to win it all. PSG had made a signifcant move since last month, moving from +1300 to +750. Even though Manchester City and Wolfsburg have advanced to this stage, their odds had gotten worse due to their quarterfinal matchups listed below:

Wolfsburg v Real Madrid

Bayern Munich v Benfica

Barcelona v Atletico Madrid

PSG v Manchester City

Below was published prior to the Round of 16 matches:

Before the groups were set, there were four English teams (Chelsea, Man City, Man United, Arsenal) with 20:1 or better odds to win the Champions League despite overall disappointing efforts in recent years. This shouldn’t deter bettors too much though as Juventus were listed at +4650 at one point during last year’s tournament but still made it to the final against Barcelona (which set up bettors for great hedging opportunities to secure a profit).

Now that the group stages are over and the Round of 16 is set, there are three English teams remaining after Manchester United failed to advance as -500 favorites to do so. Below are the odds for each team to qualify into the quarterfinals (for anyone unaware, these teams will play a home-and-home series in February and March):

Barcelona -500, Arsenal +400

Bayern Munich -400, Juventus +330

Manchester City -335, Dyanmo Kiev +275

Atletico Madrid -450, PSV +375

Zenit -135, Benfica +115

PSG -125, Chelsea +105

Wolfsburg -275, Gent +235

Real Madrid -550, Roma +425

It’s hard to go against the chalk in any of these matches but there are two underdogs that I believe are worthy of a bet: Arsenal +400 and Dynamo Kiev +275. First off, let me say that Barcelona should absolutely be big favorites against the Gunners, but not this high. A fair price would have been Arsenal +250 or +300, so being able to grab them at +400 odds, especially with the first leg at home, has some good value. Even if you like Barcelona, waiting until after the first leg may be a wiser choice if Arsenal can get a solid result in the opener.

I also like Dynamo Kiev at +275 odds against Man City because of the price– I think a fairer price on Kiev would have been about +200, so at +275 it’s worth a shot. The first leg of this matchup will be in Ukraine, a notoriously difficult place to travel to and play in. The only downfall of going with Dynamo Kiev here is the fact that Ukraine’s domestic league takes a break for 3 months which works against teams in a sport like soccer, where cohesion and form play big roles. Even with the long layoff I think this matchup will be more difficult than the listed price of -335 for Man City.

Below was published prior to the Group of 32 matches:

With the Group of 32 draw just announced, here’s the path that each team will be looking at:

UCL group draw

Just a day after the groups were announced, sportsbooks were ready to post odds to win the group as well as qualify (finishing 1st or 2nd in the group):

Group A To Win Group To Qualify
Real Madrid -225 -2000
PSG +175 -500
Shakhtar Donetsk +1400 +300
Malmo +10000 +1200

Group B To Win Group To Qualify
Man United -135 -500
Wolfsburg +225 -175
CSKA Moscow +600 +175
PSV +1100 +250

Group C To Win Group To Qualify
Atletico Madrid -225 -1000
Benfica +275 -200
Galatasaray +700 +110
FC Astana +6600 +1600

Group D To Win Group To Qualify
Man City +110 -450
Juventus +165 -188
Sevilla +400 +138
Monchengladbach +1400 +350

Group E To Win Group To Qualify
Barcelona -600 -5000
AS Roma +700 -188
Bayer Leverkusen +700 -110
BATE Borisov +15000 +1200

Group F To Win Group To Qualify
Bayern Munich -300 -2500
Arsenal +225 -700
Olympiakos +1600 +400
Dinamo Zagreb +6600 +1100

Group G To Win Group To Qualify
Chelsea -400 -2500
FC Porto +350 -350
Dynamo Kiev +1400 +250
Maccabi Tel Aviv +6600 +1000

Group H To Win Group To Qualify
Valencia +110 -400
Zenit St Petersburg +225 -175
Lyon +300 -120
Gent +2000 +600

We’ll be updating this post throughout the tournament with a more detailed preview, major odds moves, group stage odds, value picks and more so be sure to check back in.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

4 Comments Permalink
4 comments on “2015-16 Champions League Title Odds
  1. Man. United at odds +1800 looks very interesting.

    Of course they will have to go through qualification, but most likely they will get to the Group Stage, and the odds will surely fall if they play just a few good matches in either the premier League or in the chl. League.

    • Valid point so far, Manchester United now at +1400 after getting through qualification and are expected to advance to the Round of 16.

  2. I always look for teams that are strong domestically early and haven’t had much success in Europe recently, which can be kind of misleading as home-and-home knockout ties can have a pretty high variance. Nevermind the random group and knockout draws.

    That said, I’m backing City +1200 (I actually got it at +1400) to win the CL. If they had happened to win it last year, their odds would be half of this, maybe even less.

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