The 2014-15 UEFA Champions League is down to the final 16 teams after group stages were completed on December 10th. For those that are unfamiliar, the Champions League is comprised of the 32 top European squads, with each country qualifying through success in their own domestic league. Last year’s final saw Spanish giants Real Madrid come back to beat fellow Spanish side Atletico Madrid 4-1 after sending the game into extra time in the last minutes of regulation.
The table below shows the odds (via Sportsbook.com) for each of the remaining contenders and we’ll continue to update it as the tournament progresses.
|Club (Country)||Feb 6||Dec 15||Dec 12||Oct 31||Aug 28||Aug 22||June 28 Opener|
|Bayern Munich (GER)||+250||+250||+300||+333||+400||+350||+325|
|Real Madrid (SPA)||+250||+250||+330||+333||+350||+350||+350|
|Man City (ENG)||+1400||+1400||+1300||+2500||+1000||+1000||+1100|
|Atletico Madrid (SPA)||+1600||+1800||+2350||+1800||+2200||+2000||+1200|
|FC Porto (POR)||+5000||+5000||+9000||+5000||+6600||+8000||+10000|
|Bayer Leverkusen (GER)||+8000||+10000||+24000||+6600||+9000||+15000||+15000|
|AS Monaco (FRA)||+10000||+12500||+22000||+15000||+5000||+4000||+2200|
|FC Basel (SUI)||+20000||+20000||+34000||+50000||+50000||N/A||N/A|
|Schalke 04 (GER)||+40000||+30000||+22000||+15000||+10000||+10000||+10000|
|Shaktar Donetsk (UKR)||+50000||+25000||+22000||+10000||+15000||+15000||+15000|
|Malmo FF (SWE)||N/A||N/A||N/A||+200000||+200000||N/A||N/A|
|CSKA Moscow (RUS)||N/A||N/A||N/A||+150000||+20000||+20000||+20000|
|NK Maribor (SVN)||N/A||N/A||N/A||+200000||+200000||N/A||N/A|
|BATE Borisov (BLS)||N/A||N/A||N/A||+200000||+100000||N/A||N/A|
|Athletic Bilbao (SPA)||N/A||N/A||N/A||+20000||+5000||+8000||+6600|
|Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS)||N/A||N/A||N/A||+8000||+12500||+15000||+10000|
|AS Roma (ITA)||N/A||N/A||N/A||+5000||+5000||+5000||+6600|
The Round of 16 begins on February 17th where teams will play a home-and-home series to decide who progresses into the Quarterfinals. Below shows the odds to advance for each Round of 16 matchup (via TopBet):
Bayern Munich -1200 | Shakhtar Donetsk +800
Real Madrid -1000 | Schalke +650
Arsenal -300 | Monaco +240
Atletico Madrid -300 | Bayer Leverkusen +240
Barcelona -270 | Manchester City +210
Porto -220 | Basel +180
Chelsea -200 | PSG +170
Dortmund -115 | Juventus -105
What can we make from these odds to advance? For starters, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are almost shoe-ins for the Quarterfinals, and would take a mini miracle from Shaktar or Schalke to pull the upset over the course of two legs. Arsenal and Atletico are both getting better as the season moves along and it’s hard to envision either of those teams not getting though.
The most intriguing matchups are also the closest in odds, which makes a whole lot of sense. Barcelona has the talent while Manchester City historically struggle in these European competitions. To the naked eye there seems to be value on Manchester City, but Barcelona at -270 will get it done.
Porto and Basel are both dominating their domestic leagues in Portugal and Switzerland respectively, and we could see an upset here on Basel +180. The same can be said for Chelsea and PSG, both dominating their domestic leagues, and PSG at +170 is worthy of a bet.
The last pairing of Dortmund/Juventus is anyone’s guess. Dortmund may be relegated from the top division of Germany but remain the slight favorites over Italian rulers Juventus. At -105 to advance, Juventus looks like a strong play.
Now how exactly did each team get to this stage of the tournament? In the Round of 32, four teams each were drawn into Groups A through H, and each team played each other twice for a total of six games apiece (round robin style). The top two teams in each group then moved on to the Round of 16 where we’re currently at. Below were how the groups unfolded, including some high caliber matches like Bayern-Manchester City, Juventus-Atletico, Real Madrid-Liverpool, and Dortmund-Arsenal.
— Bookie Insiders (@Bookieinsiders) August 28, 2014
Even to those familiar with each Champions League team, it’s tough to forecast what will happen without looking at the odds to win each group. While some were expecting to win with relative ease (Barcelona -250, Real Madrid -400), others did’t have an underdog higher than +300 (Group C). Below were the odds to win each group at CRIS (Group Winners are bolded):
Group A: Atletico +100, Juventus +110, Olympiakos +1200, Malmo +7900
Group B: Real Madrid -400, Liverpool +350, Basel +2400, Ludogrets +9900
Group C: Leverkusen +250, Benfica +275, Monaco +275, Zenit +300
Group D: Arsenal -105, Dortmund +120, Galatasaray +1200, Anderlecht +3903
Group E: Bayern -143, Manchester City +185, Roma +800, CSKA Moscow +4900
Group F: Barcelona -250, PSG +230, Ajax +2402, APOEL +8400
Group G: Chelsea -400, Schalke +450, Sporting +1200, Maribor +6400
Group H: Porto +130, Athletic Bilbao +170, Shakhtar Donetsk +325, BATE Borisov +3400
Bayern Munich and Real Madrid remain the top favorites to take this year’s title but check back in as odds will undoubtedly fluctuate as the Round of 16 progresses.
Will a Spanish or German side once again win the UCL title, or will a English side like Manchester City or Chelsea take home the hardware?