2014-15 UEFA Champions League Title Odds

2014-15 UEFA Champions League Title Odds

The 2014-15 UEFA Champions League is down to the final 4 teams. For those that are unfamiliar, the Champions League is comprised of the 32 top European squads, with each country qualifying through success in their own domestic league. Last year’s final saw Spanish giants Real Madrid come back to beat fellow Spanish side Atletico Madrid 4-1 after sending the game into extra time in the last minutes of regulation.

The table below shows the odds throughout the competition for each of the contenders (via Sportsbook):

Club (Country)May 14May 4Apr 23Mar 23Feb 6Dec 15Dec 12Oct 31Aug 28Jun 28
Barcelona (SPA)-280+170+170+250+500+550+480+550+550+700
Juventus (ITA)+240+895+870+700+2500+2500+4650+3300+2300+2000
Chelsea (ENG)N/AN/AN/AN/A+650+700+630+600+800+800
Bayern Munich (GER)N/A+290+200+175+250+250+300+333+400+325
Atletico Madrid (SPA)N/AN/AN/A+1600+1600+1800+2350+1800+2200+1200
PSG (FRA)N/AN/AN/A+1800+2200+2500+2450+1400+1200+1400
FC Porto (POR)N/AN/AN/A+6600+5000+5000+9000+5000+6600+10000
AS Monaco (FRA)N/AN/AN/A+6600+10000+12500+22000+15000+5000+2200
Man City (ENG)N/AN/AN/AN/A+1400+1400+1300+2500+1000+1100
Dortmund (GER)N/AN/AN/AN/A+2500+2500+3250+1400+2300+2000
AS Roma (ITA)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+5000+6600
Bayer Leverkusen (GER)N/AN/AN/AN/A+8000+10000+24000+6600+9000+15000
Arsenal (ENG)N/AN/AN/AN/A+2000+2000+3850+2500+1800+2500
FC Basel (SUI)N/AN/AN/AN/A+20000+20000+34000+50000+50000N/A
Schalke 04 (GER)N/AN/AN/AN/A+40000+30000+22000+15000+10000+10000
Shaktar Donetsk (UKR)N/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+25000+22000+10000+15000+15000
Real Madrid (SPA)N/A+235+340+350+250+250+330+333+350+350
Benfica (POR)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000+9000+6600
Ajax (NED)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+25000+20000
Galatasary (TUR)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+15000+20000
Ludogrets (BUL)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+100000+100000N/A
Anderlecht (BEL)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+150000+50000N/A
APOEL (CYP)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+150000+50000N/A
CSKA Moscow (RUS)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+150000+20000+20000
Sporting (POR)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+35000+30000+20000
NK Maribor (SVN)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+200000+200000N/A
BATE Borisov (BLS)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+200000+100000N/A
Athletic Bilbao (SPA)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+20000+5000+6600
Olympiakos (GRE)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000+30000+30000
Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+8000+12500+10000
Liverpool (ENG)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+4000+2300+2200
Malmo FF (SWE)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+200000+200000N/A

We’ve now arrived at the semifinals and all four of our quarterfinal picks (albeit all favorites) have made it to the semifinals– Barcelona, Real Madrid, Juventus, and Bayern Munich. The semifinal matchups will pit Barcelona against Bayern Munich, and Real Madrid against Juventus. Below shows the odds to advance to the final (via Sportsbook):

Barcelona -165     |  Bayern Munich +125     (Opened Barcelona -135 | Bayern Munich-105)

Real Madrid -285  |  Juventus +200              (Opened Real Madrid -260 | Juventus +180)

We liked Barcelona to progress to the finals during the quarterfinals and won’t be backing down from that pick now. Bayern Munich pulled off a great comeback to get into the semifinals but are facing injury concerns while Barcelona seems to be gelling at the right time. In the other match, Juventus will be a great test for Real Madrid but just won’t be enough– in the end I think we’ll be looking at an all-Spanish final once again with Barcelona our pick over Real Madrid.

(Below was written prior to each round)

The Quarterfinal Round begins on April 14th and there are a couple of unexpected teams that have advanced to this stage. AS Monaco were +240 to qualify over Arsenal but went through on the Away Goals rule. PSG, an upset pick of ours, also advanced past Chelsea at odds of +170. Below shows the odds to advance prior to each quarterfinal matchup (via Sportsbook):

Bayern Munich -900  |  Porto +500

Juventus -375  |  Monaco +250

Barcelona -360  |  PSG +240

Real Madrid -220  |  Atletico Madrid +160

Lots of chalk in the quarterfinals: Despite the competition down to the final 8 teams, each matchup consists of a heavy favorite and underdog. The battle of Madrids will be another epic clash but Atletico looked susceptible last round against Leverkusen. We’ll take all the chalk and expect a semifinal of Bayern Munich, Juventus, Barcelona, and Real Madrid.

The Round of 16 begins in early February where teams also play a home-and-home series to decide who progresses into the Quarterfinals. Below shows the odds to advance prior to each Round of 16 matchup (via TopBet):

Bayern Munich -1200 | Shakhtar Donetsk +800

Real Madrid -1000 | Schalke +650

Arsenal -300 | Monaco +240

Atletico Madrid -300 | Bayer Leverkusen +240

Barcelona -270 | Manchester City +210

Porto -220 | Basel +180

Chelsea -200 | PSG +170

Dortmund -115 | Juventus -105

What can we make from these odds to advance? For starters, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are almost shoe-ins for the Quarterfinals, and would take a mini miracle from Shaktar or Schalke to pull the upset over the course of two legs. Arsenal and Atletico are both getting better as the season moves along and it’s hard to envision either of those teams not getting though.

The most intriguing matchups are also the closest in odds, which makes a whole lot of sense. Barcelona has the talent while Manchester City historically struggle in these European competitions. To the naked eye there seems to be value on Manchester City, but Barcelona at -270 will get it done.

Porto and Basel are both dominating their domestic leagues in Portugal and Switzerland respectively, and we could see an upset here on Basel +180. The same can be said for Chelsea and PSG, both dominating their domestic leagues, and PSG at +170 is worthy of a bet.

The last pairing of Dortmund/Juventus is anyone’s guess. Dortmund may be relegated from the top division of Germany but remain the slight favorites over Italian rulers Juventus. At -105 to advance, Juventus looks like a strong play.

Now how exactly did each team get to this stage of the tournament? In the Round of 32, four teams each were drawn into Groups A through H, and each team played each other twice for a total of six games apiece (round robin style). The top two teams in each group then moved on to the Round of 16 where we’re currently at. Below were how the groups unfolded, including some high caliber matches like Bayern-Manchester City, Juventus-Atletico, Real Madrid-Liverpool, and Dortmund-Arsenal.

Even to those familiar with each Champions League team, it’s tough to forecast what will happen without looking at the odds to win each group. While some were expecting to win with relative ease (Barcelona -250, Real Madrid -400), others did’t have an underdog higher than +300 (Group C). Below were the odds to win each group at CRIS (Group Winners are bolded):

Group A: Atletico +100, Juventus +110, Olympiakos +1200, Malmo +7900

Group B: Real Madrid -400, Liverpool +350, Basel +2400, Ludogrets +9900

Group C: Leverkusen +250, Benfica +275, Monaco +275, Zenit +300

Group D: Arsenal -105, Dortmund +120, Galatasaray +1200, Anderlecht +3903

Group E: Bayern -143, Manchester City +185, Roma +800, CSKA Moscow +4900

Group F: Barcelona -250, PSG +230, Ajax +2402, APOEL +8400

Group G: Chelsea -400, Schalke +450, Sporting +1200, Maribor +6400

Group H: Porto +130, Athletic Bilbao +170, Shakhtar Donetsk +325, BATE Borisov +3400

Bayern Munich and Real Madrid remain the top favorites to take this year’s title but check back in as odds will undoubtedly fluctuate as the Round of 16 progresses.

Will a Spanish or German side once again win the UCL title, or will a English side like Manchester City or Chelsea take home the hardware?

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

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