2014 NFL Win Totals from LVH

On Saturday CG Technologies, formerly known as Cantor, released lines for every single NFL game for weeks 1 through 16. Then on Sunday, the LVH posted their NFL win totals for the upcoming 2014 season. With access to all of these point spreads we are easily able to project our own NFL season win totals for the entire league right now.

To do this, we first convert the point spread into a winning percentage for every game on the schedule. For example, a 3-point favorite has an expected winning percentage of 59.37%.  Therefore, every time a team is favored by 3 points, we can credit them with .5937 wins. Conversely, a 3-point underdog would receive .4063 wins (1-.5937).  For week 17 games, we projected the spread by using the previous game between the two teams and adjusting for home field advantage.

By extrapolating these decimals over the course of an entire season, we have developed the following Over/Under projections:

Team
LVH Win Total
Over
Under
Games Favored
Projected Wins
Denver Broncos 11 -140 +120 13 10.788
Seattle Seahawks 11 -120 +100 14 10.518
New England Patriots 10.5 -135 +115 12 9.828
San Francisco 49ers 10.5 -120 +100 11 10.128
Green Bay Packers 10 -145 +125 12 9.746
New Orleans Saints 9.5 -150 +130 9 8.984
Indianapolis Colts 9.5 +130 -150 10 9.027
Cincinnati Bengals 9 -135 +115 7 8.568
Philadelphia Eagles 9 +115 -135 8 8.57
Baltimore Ravens 8.5 -120 +100 7 8.507
Pittsburgh Steelers 8.5 -120 even 10 8.707
Detroit Lions 8 -150 +130 10 8.406
Chicago Bears 8 -140 +120 8 8.39
Atlanta Falcons 8 -130 +110 7 8.019
Carolina Panthers 8 -130 +110 9 8.657
Kansas City Chiefs 8 -120 +100 7 8.366
San Diego Chargers 8 -120 +100 6 7.798
Dallas Cowboys 8 -110 -110 8 8.302
Miami Dolphins 8 +110 -130 5 7.672
Houston Texans 7.5 -145 +125 7 8.467
New York Giants 7.5 -135 +115 8 7.873
Arizona Cardinals 7.5 -120 +100 7 7.293
St. Louis Rams 7.5 -110 -110 3 6.521
Washington Redskins 7.5 +125 -145 5 7.346
Tennessee Titans 7 -130 +110 4 6.934
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 -120 +100 3 6.84
New York Jets 7 -125 +105 3 6.717
Cleveland Browns 6.5 -150 +130 4 7.035
Buffalo Bills 6.5 -130 +110 6 6.637
Minnesota Vikings 6 +105 -125 2 6.214
Oakland Raiders 5 +130 -150 0 4.826
Jacksonville Jaguars 4.5 -150 +130 0 4.398

Comparing the projected wins to the given total and factoring in the juice on both sides, here are the five bets offering the most value:

Rams – Under 7.5 wins (-110)
Saints – Under 9.5 wins (+130)
Patriots – Under 10.5 wins (+115)
Bengals – Under 9 wins (+115)
Packers – Under 10 wins (+125)

Which teams do you think are offering value? Who are your sleepers for next season? Make sure to leave your thoughts and comments in the section below.

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2 Comments Permalink
2 comments on “2014 NFL Win Totals from LVH
  1. Question: tell me if I am crazy but couldn’t you take jacksonville under 4.5 at +130 with 16 units and bet 1 unit jacksonville ml every game and lock in profits?

    Thanks,

    Suchir

    • Suchir,

      To answer your question, let me give you a hypothetical example of how that might play out. The following list shows the spread for each Jacksonville game along with the correlating moneyline:

      1. +11=+640
      2. +9=+395
      3. +6=+225
      4. +10=+480
      5. +6.5=+245
      6. +7=+285
      7. +2.5=+110
      8. +4=+180
      9. +11=+640
      10. +10=+480
      11. +12=+725
      12. +5.5=+205
      13. +4=+180
      14. +10.5=+580
      15. +3=+135
      16. +10=+480

      Let’s say that you bet $1600 on the under and then placed $100 on Jacksonville for each game. If Jacksonville goes 5-11 and wins the five games in which they are favored by less than 6, you would have the following moneylines: +110, +180, +205, +180, +135. Those five wins would lead to profits of $810. However, you would have to subtract one unit for each of the 11 losses so $810-$1100=-$290.

      In that case you would actually lose the $1600 from betting the under AND the $290 from betting each game, resulting in a total loss of $1890. Of course, Jacksonville could also win some of the games in which they are larger moneyline dogs which would certainly change these results, but the bottom line is that this would not be an advisable strategy and you would certainly not be locking in any profits.

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