As a re-match of one of the most exciting Super Bowls in recent history, this weekend’s showdown between the Giants and Patriots promises to be a heart-pumping, high-scoring, edge of your seat affair. However, our job here at SportsInsights is to find value and study historical betting trends — not get caught up in the hype and excitement.
While studying this game in addition to previous Super Bowl data, a few interesting trends have emerged. The most obvious is the change in betting behavior from the general public. Typically square bettors love to pound favorites during the regular season; however Super Bowl bettors have skewed towards the underdogs.
In five of the past eight Super Bowls, the underdog has received a majority of spread wagers. The logic behind this seems easy enough. The public views the Super Bowl as a matchup between the league’s two best teams and perhaps they view the game as a virtual pick ’em. If that’s the case, it would make sense to simply take whichever team is getting points. As this year’s big game nears, this trend is continuing with 61% of spread bets taking New York and the points.
Another interesting trend is the consistently even betting percentages on the Super Bowl. Over the past eight years, only Super Bowl XLII had either team receiving more than 56% of spread wagers with the Giants (+12.5) garnering 61%.
As far as the moneyline is concerned, most bettors will not be surprised to find out that the Giants are currently receiving 64% of ML wagers (currently +120 at Cris). With many books now offering an inflated juice on the Giants +3, many bettors have foregone the spread and opted to pick the Giants straight up. This may be due in part to the Giants victories over the Patriots earlier this season as well as in Super Bowl 42.
We will continue our Super Bowl coverage in this space as we approach the big game on Sunday. Remember to check back for all the latest news and trends and don’t forget to sign up for our free 7-day trial for access to live odds, betting trends, breaking injury and news alerts as well as our expert picks — which includes our 33-21 (61.1% +9.7 units) NFL Best Bets .