What should NHL bettors know post All-Star break?
The 2017 NHL All-Star weekend in Los Angeles is upon us, and every team is more than halfway through their season schedule. So far this year we’ve seen Columbus and Minnesota go on epic win streaks, TB and LA struggle, and young players like Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews dominating.
In terms of betting, what has worked so far this year? This season home teams have gone 420-316 for +12 units while favorites have gone 439-300 for +5 units. Columbus (+13.86 units) and Minnesota (+10.76 units) have been the most profitable teams while Colorado (-15.20 units) has been the worst. Betting against the public requires more patience in NHL where public bettors aren’t really wagering on these games, but teams getting <20% of tickets have earned +5.05 units this year.
It’s great to know what has worked this season, but what should bettors look for after the All-Star break? Over the last 3 seasons, underdogs have been slightly profitable after the break, winning close to +10 units. But the bigger trend to watch for is road teams– they’ve earned more than +52 units on the moneyline after the break over the last 3 seasons. Road teams may provide even more value after the break this season since home teams have been so successful this year. Sportsbooks may need to adjust their lines, meaning you can grab some extra value on road sides after the break.
Our Pinnacle NHL Steam moves have also earned over +40 units this season, and are available to all Pro members.
Art Ross: Connor McDavid was available at +600 before the year to record the most points and he’s currently on 59 points, four ahead of Sidney Crosby and five ahead of Evgeni Malkin. Crosby was the +200 preseason favorite and as long as he’s within single-digits of McDavid, this race should go down to the final few games.
Rocket Richard: Crosby is 4 goals ahead of Cam Atkinson right now which is a bit surprising because Crosby is more known for assists than goals. Alex Ovechkin was the +200 preseason favorite, and he sits just 5 goals behind Crosby.
Vezina: There are a number of goalies who could absolutely win the award this year including Price, Dubnyk, Bobrovsky, Rask, and Holtby. Price was the +350 preseason favorite while Dubnyk and Bobrovskiy surprisingly weren’t even listed.
Calder: Auston Matthews was the preseason favorite at -160 and rightfully so, as he and Patrik Laine have been the most impressive rookies. Columbus defenseman Zach Werenski has also been very good but had no odds before the year to win.
Avalanche need 60 points in their last 36 games, so the UNDER will likely cash soon.
Stars have to gain 55 points in their last 32 games, so the UNDER looks like it will cash pretty easily.
Blue Jackets need just 18 points in their last 34 games, so the OVER looks like it should cash by March.
Senators need just 24 points in their last 35 games, meaning the OVER should hit.
Wild need just 25 points in their remaining 34 games, so the OVER looks great.
Atlantic Division: The Lightning were the +150 preseason favorites to win the Atlantic, but they find themselves 15 points behind the Canadiens, who were +250 to win the Atlantic. The Maple Leafs were +4000 to win the Atlantic before the season, but are just 10 points behind Montreal with 3 games in hand, so don’t count out Toronto yet. Tampa Bay was also +500 to miss the playoffs before the season but is now in serious doubt.
Metropolitan Division: The Capitals and Penguins were favorites to win the Metro before the season, but the Blue Jackets have wedged themselves into the mix. Columbus was +3500 to win the division before the season but rattled off 16 straight wins this season and is just 4 points behind Washington right now with a game in hand.
Central Division: Another favorite has disappointed, with the Stars (+180 preseason) sitting at 50 points through 50 games, identical to the Lightning. Dallas is 19 points behind division leaders Minnesota Wild, who were +2000 to win the division before the season. Dallas was also available at +235 to miss the playoffs before the year.
Pacific Division: The Kings, Sharks, and Ducks were all +225 co-favorites to win the division before the season, but LA has fallen of the pace while Edmonton (+700) is tied for the lead with San Jose. LA was +228 before the season to miss the playoffs.
My colleague Mark also recently wrote about historical NHL totals for those bettors interested in betting Over/Unders.
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