Updated 2016 Academy Award Odds

The 2016 Academy Awards will take place at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood on Sunday, February 28 at 8:30 PM eastern time. This marks the 88th year of the ceremony, which will be hosted by Chris Rock.

Awards will be handed out in 24 different categories ranging from Best Picture and Best Director to more technical awards such Best Editing and Best Visual Effects. There are five nominees for every category with the exception of Best Picture (which has eight nominees) and Best Hair and Makeup (which has just three nominees).

The Revenant leads all films with twelve Oscar nominations including Best Picture, Best Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio) and Best Director (Alejandro Iñárritu). Other notable films include Mad Max: Fury Road (10 nominations) and The Martian (7 nominations).

Bovada, one of the more public offshore sportsbooks, has posted odds for 14 different prop bets with fairly low limits. Bookmaker, considered to be one of the market-setting sportsbooks, has posted odds for seven of the awards with limits ranging from $250 to $2,000.

Best Picture

Movie Bookmaker (2/22) Bovada (2/22)
The Revenant -190 -160
Spotlight +245 +200
The Big Short +680 +300
Mad Max: Fury Road +8050 +6600
Room +10050 +6600
Bridge of Spies +11050 +15000
The Martian +12050 +6600
Brooklyn +13050 +20000

Best Actor

Actor Movie Bovada (2/22)
Leonardo DiCaprio The Revenant -5000
Eddie Redmayne The Danish Girl +1000
Michael Fassbender Steve Jobs +1200
Matt Damon The Martian +3300
Bryan Cranston Trumbo +5000

Best Actress

Actor Movie Bovada (2/22)
Brie Larson Room -2000
Saoirse Ronan Brooklyn +800
Cate Blanchett Carol +1600
Jennifer Lawrence Joy +1600
Charlotte Rampling 45 Years +4000

Best Supporting Actor

Actor Movie Bookmaker (2/22) Bovada (2/22)
Sylvester Stallone Creed -375 -250
Mark Rylance Bridge of Spies +350 +200
Tom Hardy The Revenant N/A +1000
Christian Bale The Big Short N/A +2000
Mark Ruffalo Spotlight N/A +3300
Field N/A +1300 N/A

Best Supporting Actress

Actress Movie Bookmaker (2/22)
Alicia Vikander The Danish Girl -240
Kate Winslet Steve Jobs +320
Rooney Mara Carol +560
Field N/A +3250

Best Director

Director Movie Bovada (2/22)
Alejandro Iñárritu The Revenant -600
George Miller Mad Max: Fury Road +500
Adam McCay The Big Short +1000
Thomas McCarthy Spotlight +1400
Lenny Abrahamson Room +5000

Best Cinematography

Movie Bovada (2/22)
The Revenant -1200
Mad Max: Fury Road +600
Sicario +1600
Carol +2000
The Hateful Eight +3300

Best Original Screenplay

Movie Bookmaker (2/22) Bovada (2/22)
Spotlight -1250 -1200
Inside Out +700 +600
Bridges of Spies N/A +1500
Straight Outta Compton N/A +2500
Ex Machina N/A +3300
Field +1600 N/A

Best Adapted Screenplay

Movie Bovada (2/22)
The Big Short -1000
Room +500
Brooklyn +1500
The Martian +2000
Carol +5000

Best Visual Effects

Movie Bookmaker (2/22)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens -216
Mad Max: Fury Road +165
Field +1668

Best Film Editing

Movie Bookmaker (2/22)
Mad Max: Fury Road -550
The Big Short +450
The Revenant +1595
Field +2887

Best Costume Design

Movie Bovada (2/22)
Mad Max: Fury Road +115
Cinderella +220
Carol +350
The Danish Girl +700
The Revenant +1200

Best Original Score

Movie Bovada (2/22)
The Hateful Eight -500
Star Wars: The Force Awakens +300
Bridge of Spies +1600
Carol +2500
Sicario +5000

Best Original Song

Song Movie Bovada (2/22)
Til It Happens To You The Hunting Ground -175
Writings on the Wall Spectre +400
Earned It Fifty Shades of Grey +500
Simple Song 3 Youth +500
Manta Ray Racing Extinction +2500

Best Animated Film

Movie Bookmaker (2/22) Bovada (2/22)
Inside Out -9250 -10000
Anomalisa +4250 +1200
Shaun The Sheep N/A +2000
Boy and the World N/A +3300
When Marnie Was There N/A +3300
Field +8050 N/A

Best Documentary

Movie Bovada (2/22)
Amy -500
Cartel Land +300
The Look of Silence +1200
What Happened Miss Simone +3300
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom +4500

Best Foreign Language Film

Movie Bovada (2/22)
Son of Saul -1200
Mustang +500
Embrace of the Serpent +1800
A War +3300
Theeb +3300

If you’re taking part in an Oscar pool, there are a few films that seem like locks:

  1. Best Animated Film: Inside Out (-9,250)
  2. Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant (-5,000)
  3. Best Actress: Brie Larson for Room (-2,000)
  4. Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight (-1,250)
  5. Best Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul (-1,200)
  6. Best Cinematography: The Revenant (-1,200)
  7. Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short (-1,000)

Last year the oddsmakers were exceptionally accurate, with the favorite winning 20 of 24 categories. In fact, there were no major upsets and no award winner was listed at longer than +250. The list below displays the four surprises from the 2015 Academy Awards along with the favorite odds.

  1. Best Original Screenplay: Birdman (+125) over The Grand Budapest Hotel (-200)
  2. Best Animated Film: Big Hero 6 (+250) over How To Train Your Dragon 2 (-400)
  3. Best Original Score: The Grand Budapest Hotel (+125) over The Theory of Everything (-160)
  4. Best Film Editing: Whiplash (+200) over Boyhood (-200)

Based on these results, bettors should likely avoid taking many long shots this year. Readers may be dubious about my projections since several months ago (sight unseen) I assumed that Suffragette would be an Oscar contender and that Johnny Depp would revitalize his career with Black Mass. Looks like my projections were about as accurate as the Chicago Daily Tribune’s proclamation of “Dewey Defeats Truman.”

To be fair, I also thought that The Danish Girl’s Alicia Vikander was a good bet to win the Best Supporting Actress award when she was listed at +1800. Today she’s the favorite at -240. That bet alone should cover the rest of my dubious prognostications.

Although I loved The Revenant and agree that Leo deserves to win his first Academy Award, I think that Iñárritu’s odds are being slightly overvalued — especially since he won last year for Birdman. It’s not the typical Oscar movie, but Mad Max: Fury Road featured revolutionary visual effects and was arguably the most beautifully shot action movie that I have ever seen. For that reason, I actually think that there could be slight value on George Miller (+500) winning the Best Director award.

It’s not one of the more popular categories, but Best Costume Design features three distinctly different films who accomplished incredible feats. Carol (+350) unbelievably captures the style of the 1950’s and Mad Max: Fury Road (+115) creates a unique and bizarre post-apocalyptic dystopia. However, it’s the classic fairy tale Cinderella (+220) that seems to be offering value.

It may only because I have two functioning ears, but I loathed the Spectre theme song “Writings on the Wall” by Sam Smith. The horrendous nature of that song is made even more painful since the studio rejected the initial theme song by Radiohead. For that reason, I’m willing to pay the -175 for “Til It Happens To You” from the movie The Hunting Ground.

Lastly, I’m going to upset a lot of people by picking against Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-216) for Best Visual Effects. It was great to see the franchise bounce back after the Jar Jar Binks travesty, but Mad Max: Fury Road (+165) deserves to win this award. Tangentially, can producers stop adding colon’s to movie titles? In my mind there’s one only movie to earn that colon — Breakin’ 2: Electric Boogaloo.

[ Don’t forget to check out our Razzies Preview ]

What were your favorite movies from the last year? Do you think any films are being undervalued? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

1 Comment Permalink
One comment on “Updated 2016 Academy Award Odds
  1. Agree with everything in the article. You guys do great work.

    I’ve tracked the Oscars’ lines for about 5 yrs. The only thing i can take away from my studies is, follow the money. When a film/actor/actress gets pounded down, I follow. Here are the biggest moves at my book. Feel like a sucker betting these horrible lines but…

    Best actor: Leo open -1550 now -5000
    Best actress: Brie Larson open -500 now -1400
    Best director: Inarritu open -190 now -800
    Best pic: The Revenant open +115 now -200
    Supp. actor: N/A Stallone solid the whole way.
    Supp: actress: Vikander open +190 now -220

    Thanks again for the work at SI. Good luck gents.

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