Updated 2016 Academy Award Odds

Updated 2016 Academy Award Odds

The 2016 Academy Awards will take place at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood on Sunday, February 28 at 8:30 PM eastern time. This marks the 88th year of the ceremony, which will be hosted by Chris Rock.

Awards will be handed out in 24 different categories ranging from Best Picture and Best Director to more technical awards such Best Editing and Best Visual Effects. There are five nominees for every category with the exception of Best Picture (which has eight nominees) and Best Hair and Makeup (which has just three nominees).

The Revenant leads all films with twelve Oscar nominations including Best Picture, Best Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio) and Best Director (Alejandro Iñárritu). Other notable films include Mad Max: Fury Road (10 nominations) and The Martian (7 nominations).

Bovada, one of the more public offshore sportsbooks, has posted odds for 14 different prop bets with fairly low limits. Bookmaker, considered to be one of the market-setting sportsbooks, has posted odds for seven of the awards with limits ranging from $250 to $2,000.

Best Picture

MovieBookmaker (2/22)Bovada (2/22)
The Revenant-190-160
The Big Short+680+300
Mad Max: Fury Road+8050+6600
Bridge of Spies+11050+15000
The Martian+12050+6600

Best Actor

ActorMovieBovada (2/22)
Leonardo DiCaprioThe Revenant-5000
Eddie RedmayneThe Danish Girl+1000
Michael FassbenderSteve Jobs+1200
Matt DamonThe Martian+3300
Bryan CranstonTrumbo+5000

Best Actress

ActorMovieBovada (2/22)
Brie LarsonRoom-2000
Saoirse RonanBrooklyn+800
Cate BlanchettCarol+1600
Jennifer LawrenceJoy+1600
Charlotte Rampling45 Years+4000

Best Supporting Actor

ActorMovieBookmaker (2/22)Bovada (2/22)
Sylvester StalloneCreed-375-250
Mark RylanceBridge of Spies+350+200
Tom HardyThe RevenantN/A+1000
Christian BaleThe Big ShortN/A+2000
Mark RuffaloSpotlightN/A+3300

Best Supporting Actress

ActressMovieBookmaker (2/22)
Alicia VikanderThe Danish Girl-240
Kate WinsletSteve Jobs+320
Rooney MaraCarol+560

Best Director

DirectorMovieBovada (2/22)
Alejandro IñárrituThe Revenant-600
George MillerMad Max: Fury Road+500
Adam McCayThe Big Short+1000
Thomas McCarthySpotlight+1400
Lenny AbrahamsonRoom+5000

Best Cinematography

MovieBovada (2/22)
The Revenant-1200
Mad Max: Fury Road+600
The Hateful Eight+3300

Best Original Screenplay

MovieBookmaker (2/22)Bovada (2/22)
Inside Out+700+600
Bridges of SpiesN/A+1500
Straight Outta ComptonN/A+2500
Ex MachinaN/A+3300

Best Adapted Screenplay

MovieBovada (2/22)
The Big Short-1000
The Martian+2000

Best Visual Effects

MovieBookmaker (2/22)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens-216
Mad Max: Fury Road+165

Best Film Editing

MovieBookmaker (2/22)
Mad Max: Fury Road-550
The Big Short+450
The Revenant+1595

Best Costume Design

MovieBovada (2/22)
Mad Max: Fury Road+115
The Danish Girl+700
The Revenant+1200

Best Original Score

MovieBovada (2/22)
The Hateful Eight-500
Star Wars: The Force Awakens+300
Bridge of Spies+1600

Best Original Song

SongMovieBovada (2/22)
Til It Happens To YouThe Hunting Ground-175
Writings on the WallSpectre+400
Earned ItFifty Shades of Grey+500
Simple Song 3Youth+500
Manta RayRacing Extinction+2500

Best Animated Film

MovieBookmaker (2/22)Bovada (2/22)
Inside Out-9250-10000
Shaun The SheepN/A+2000
Boy and the WorldN/A+3300
When Marnie Was ThereN/A+3300

Best Documentary

MovieBovada (2/22)
Cartel Land+300
The Look of Silence+1200
What Happened Miss Simone+3300
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom+4500

Best Foreign Language Film

MovieBovada (2/22)
Son of Saul-1200
Embrace of the Serpent+1800
A War+3300

If you’re taking part in an Oscar pool, there are a few films that seem like locks:

  1. Best Animated Film: Inside Out (-9,250)
  2. Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant (-5,000)
  3. Best Actress: Brie Larson for Room (-2,000)
  4. Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight (-1,250)
  5. Best Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul (-1,200)
  6. Best Cinematography: The Revenant (-1,200)
  7. Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short (-1,000)

Last year the oddsmakers were exceptionally accurate, with the favorite winning 20 of 24 categories. In fact, there were no major upsets and no award winner was listed at longer than +250. The list below displays the four surprises from the 2015 Academy Awards along with the favorite odds.

  1. Best Original Screenplay: Birdman (+125) over The Grand Budapest Hotel (-200)
  2. Best Animated Film: Big Hero 6 (+250) over How To Train Your Dragon 2 (-400)
  3. Best Original Score: The Grand Budapest Hotel (+125) over The Theory of Everything (-160)
  4. Best Film Editing: Whiplash (+200) over Boyhood (-200)

Based on these results, bettors should likely avoid taking many long shots this year. Readers may be dubious about my projections since several months ago (sight unseen) I assumed that Suffragette would be an Oscar contender and that Johnny Depp would revitalize his career with Black Mass. Looks like my projections were about as accurate as the Chicago Daily Tribune’s proclamation of “Dewey Defeats Truman.”

To be fair, I also thought that The Danish Girl’s Alicia Vikander was a good bet to win the Best Supporting Actress award when she was listed at +1800. Today she’s the favorite at -240. That bet alone should cover the rest of my dubious prognostications.

Although I loved The Revenant and agree that Leo deserves to win his first Academy Award, I think that Iñárritu’s odds are being slightly overvalued — especially since he won last year for Birdman. It’s not the typical Oscar movie, but Mad Max: Fury Road featured revolutionary visual effects and was arguably the most beautifully shot action movie that I have ever seen. For that reason, I actually think that there could be slight value on George Miller (+500) winning the Best Director award.

It’s not one of the more popular categories, but Best Costume Design features three distinctly different films who accomplished incredible feats. Carol (+350) unbelievably captures the style of the 1950’s and Mad Max: Fury Road (+115) creates a unique and bizarre post-apocalyptic dystopia. However, it’s the classic fairy tale Cinderella (+220) that seems to be offering value.

It may only because I have two functioning ears, but I loathed the Spectre theme song “Writings on the Wall” by Sam Smith. The horrendous nature of that song is made even more painful since the studio rejected the initial theme song by Radiohead. For that reason, I’m willing to pay the -175 for “Til It Happens To You” from the movie The Hunting Ground.

Lastly, I’m going to upset a lot of people by picking against Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-216) for Best Visual Effects. It was great to see the franchise bounce back after the Jar Jar Binks travesty, but Mad Max: Fury Road (+165) deserves to win this award. Tangentially, can producers stop adding colon’s to movie titles? In my mind there’s one only movie to earn that colon — Breakin’ 2: Electric Boogaloo.

[ Don’t forget to check out our Razzies Preview ]

What were your favorite movies from the last year? Do you think any films are being undervalued? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.

David Solar

David was the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He has since moved on to greener pastures.

1 Comment
  • Keith
    02/23/2016 at 12:03 am

    Agree with everything in the article. You guys do great work.

    I’ve tracked the Oscars’ lines for about 5 yrs. The only thing i can take away from my studies is, follow the money. When a film/actor/actress gets pounded down, I follow. Here are the biggest moves at my book. Feel like a sucker betting these horrible lines but…

    Best actor: Leo open -1550 now -5000
    Best actress: Brie Larson open -500 now -1400
    Best director: Inarritu open -190 now -800
    Best pic: The Revenant open +115 now -200
    Supp. actor: N/A Stallone solid the whole way.
    Supp: actress: Vikander open +190 now -220

    Thanks again for the work at SI. Good luck gents.

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