Tom Brady 2017 Prop Bets

Tom Brady just won his fifth Super Bowl ring and fourth Super Bowl MVP by pulling off a seemingly impossible comeback against the Falcons. What’s next for the GOAT?

Before the Super Bowl, MyBookie was offering odds on whether or not Brady would retire before next season. That prop paid will pay out at 12/1 if he does call it quits, but it is no longer being offered.

Instead, MyBookie has posted several props regarding what Brady will do next season. If he does in fact shock the world and retire, all of these bets will be voided. Brady needs to be on the Week 1 roster for action.

Number of games started

# of Games MyBookie (2/8)
16 -200
15 +200
14 +400
13 +600
12 or less +1000

The first prop is for number of games started. Other than the year he was injured and this past suspension-shortened season, Brady has started every single game since replacing Drew Bledsoe as the Patriots quarterback. Even if he’s a little banged up, he’s going to do everything he can to get on the field. As a result, 16 is the favorite at -200. If I were to take any of these, it would be 12 or less at +1000. Despite his history of great health, there’s still a chance a man of his age suffers an injury that is serious enough to keep him out for four-plus games.

Number of touchdowns

# of Touchdowns MyBookie (2/8)
36+ +300
34-35 +200
30-33 +100
29-32 +150
25-28 +400
24 or Less +800

This one is a bit tougher due to the small increments for each option. Since 2009, Brady has generally been in the low 30’s and recorded 28 TD passes this past year in 12 games. With Rob Gronkowski’s health in question and Martellus Bennett possibly leaving in free agency, I would stay clear of this one for now. If anything, there could be some value on the 25-28 option. Although there appears to be an error on these odds (as 30-33 and 29-32 overlap) that was apparently an intentional decision.

Number of interceptions

# of Interceptions MyBookie (2/8)
10+ +400
7-9 +100
4-6 +200
0-5 +500

Brady is coming off a year in which he threw only two picks during his 12 regular season games. Although he threw three in the playoffs, his accuracy during the later portion of his career is much improved over his earlier years. In his first seven full seasons, Brady averaged over 12 picks a season. In his past seven full seasons, excluding this past season, he’s averaged just over nine picks per season. If you include this year, that lowers to about eight and a quarter. It appears that MyBookie has done their research, making 7-9 the favorite. With Brady’s age rising, I’d expect him to focus on shorter passes, thus minimizing risk. I imagine he’ll throw six or less.

Passing Yards

# of Yards MyBookie (2/8)
5200+ +600
4900-5199 +400
4700-4899 +300
4500-4699 +200
4300-4499 +300
4100-4299 +400
3900-4099 +600
3899 or Less +1000

Given the fact that the Patriots are generally going to be winning late in the game, Brady’s chances of racking up 5000+ yards are always going to be slim. He’s only accomplished that feat once in his career and I don’t expect him to do it again. In 2013 and 2014, Brady threw between 4,100-4,400 yards. Two seasons ago, he threw 4,770 and if you take his total from the 12 games this year and extend that out to 16 games, he would’ve thrown around 4,700 again. As is the case with the other bets, I feel that there is some value on the lower numbers. Although we assume that the GOAT will perform at an elite level year in and year out, anything is possible given his age.

Then again, anything is possible with Tom Brady.

The 2017-18 NFL season is still months away, but make sure to bookmark our free NFL odds page for the latest lines, public betting trends, injuries, futures and more.

If you have any thoughts or questions, feel free to reach out to the Sports Insights staff by utilizing our live chat feature, commenting below, or emailing us at help@sportsinsights.com.

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Hailing from Hill Valley, Biff became a millionaire over night after a trip to the race track on his 21st birthday. His gambling hot streak made him known as the "Luckiest Man on Earth". He is now the proud owner of the family friendly Pleasure Paradise Casino and Hotel.

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