The Road(s) to the Final Four

We simulated the bracket over a million times to determine how often a team reaches the Sweet 16, Final 4, and even to cut down the nets in Indianapolis. But those percentages represent the average of all of those simulations.

In the tables below, we’ll show the best-case and worst-case scenarios for teams to reach the Final Four within reason. If a 15-seed has roughly a zero percent chance to get to the Elite Eight, then they won’t be part of a team’s best case scenario.

KENTUCKY

  Round of 64 Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Odds
Best Case Hampton Cincinnati Valparaiso Indiana 87.9%
Worst Case Hampton Purdue West Virginia Kansas 63.7%

WISCONSIN

  Round of 64 Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Odds
Best Case Coastal Car Oregon Wofford Mississippi 71.4%
Worst Case Coastal Car Oklahoma State North Carolina Arizona 29.3%

VILLANOVA

  Round of 64 Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Odds
Best Case Lafayette LSU Wyoming Georgia 69.5%
Worst Case Lafayette NC State Northern Iowa Virginia 29.4%

ARIZONA

  Round of 64 Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Odds
Best Case Texas So. VCU Georgia St. Oregon 69.8%
Worst Case Texas So. Ohio State Baylor Wisconsin 26.5%

DUKE

  Round of 64 Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Odds
Best Case Robert Morris St. John's E Washington UCLA 67.8%
Worst Case N. Florida San Diego St. Utah Gonzaga 24.4%

VIRGINIA

  Round of 64 Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Odds
Best Case Belmont Georgia Albany LSU 67.5%
Worst Case Belmont Michigan State Oklahoma Villanova 23.0%

GONZAGA

  Round of 64 Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Odds
Best Case N Dakota St. Davidson UAB St. John's 65.5%
Worst Case N Dakota St. Iowa Iowa State Duke 24.2%
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Travis

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