The Road(s) to the Final Four

The Road(s) to the Final Four

We simulated the bracket over a million times to determine how often a team reaches the Sweet 16, Final 4, and even to cut down the nets in Indianapolis. But those percentages represent the average of all of those simulations.

In the tables below, we’ll show the best-case and worst-case scenarios for teams to reach the Final Four within reason. If a 15-seed has roughly a zero percent chance to get to the Elite Eight, then they won’t be part of a team’s best case scenario.

KENTUCKY

 Round of 64Round of 32Sweet 16Elite 8Final 4 Odds
Best CaseHamptonCincinnatiValparaisoIndiana87.9%
Worst CaseHamptonPurdueWest VirginiaKansas63.7%

WISCONSIN

 Round of 64Round of 32Sweet 16Elite 8Final 4 Odds
Best CaseCoastal CarOregonWoffordMississippi71.4%
Worst CaseCoastal CarOklahoma StateNorth CarolinaArizona29.3%

VILLANOVA

 Round of 64Round of 32Sweet 16Elite 8Final 4 Odds
Best CaseLafayetteLSUWyomingGeorgia69.5%
Worst CaseLafayetteNC StateNorthern IowaVirginia29.4%

ARIZONA

 Round of 64Round of 32Sweet 16Elite 8Final 4 Odds
Best CaseTexas So.VCUGeorgia St.Oregon69.8%
Worst CaseTexas So.Ohio StateBaylorWisconsin26.5%

DUKE

 Round of 64Round of 32Sweet 16Elite 8Final 4 Odds
Best CaseRobert MorrisSt. John'sE WashingtonUCLA67.8%
Worst CaseN. FloridaSan Diego St.UtahGonzaga24.4%

VIRGINIA

 Round of 64Round of 32Sweet 16Elite 8Final 4 Odds
Best CaseBelmontGeorgiaAlbanyLSU67.5%
Worst CaseBelmontMichigan StateOklahomaVillanova23.0%

GONZAGA

 Round of 64Round of 32Sweet 16Elite 8Final 4 Odds
Best CaseN Dakota St.DavidsonUABSt. John's65.5%
Worst CaseN Dakota St.IowaIowa StateDuke24.2%

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