Reverse Line Movement on the Bengals as Antonio Brown’s Status Looms Large
Tonight, in the Skyline Chili capital of the world, we have a divisional showdown between the Steelers and Bengals.
However, one thing is on bettors’ minds right now and it isn’t chili and an alarming amount of cheese on top of spaghetti. It’s whether or not Antonio Brown will play.
This high-priced stud’s toe is the talk of the fantasy, DFS, and betting world right now and unfortunately, we probably won’t know if he’s playing or not for a few more hours. However, the line has already moved a good deal towards the chili-chowing Bengals over the course of the week.
After opening at -6 at Pinnacle last week, the 9-2 Steelers were looking pretty good to hit double-digit wins on the road against well-documented chili hound Andy Dalton and the Bengals.
Even before AB’s injury hit the press, the line had already started moving towards Cincy despite getting only 27% of bets, though. Since we officially listed him as questionable on Saturday, we’ve tracked three more bet signals on the Bengals and the line has moved all the way down to 3.5 at Pinnacle.
The big question is: how much of this line movement is due to sharp action and how much of it is due to the possibility of Brown being out?
Before the season began, oddsmakers told us that they would likely move the line if a player of Brown’s calibers, but probably not as much as a casual bettor would think. Depending on the line, matchup, and public perception, it may only move half a point to a point. Possible not at all. With the line at 3.5 and a considerable amount of line movement already, I could certainly see it staying put even if Brown is out. If he plays, we will probably see some public action push it in the 4-5 area, though that’s not exactly a crucial betting range.
With winds expected in the greater Skyline area, we’ve seen a near split in dollars on the total. However, the total has only moved from 43.5 to 43 at Pinnacle and has stayed at 43 at Bookmaker since opening.
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