NFL Week 12 Betting Recap

– In Week 12 underdogs went 9-5 and are now 87-84 ATS this year. Home teams went 8-6 and are now 86-82 ATS on the year. It was also a nice week for contrarian betting as teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets went 9-5 ATS this week.

– The Oakland Raiders got their first win of the year on Thursday night, beating the Kansas City Chiefs 24-17. Oakland was listed at +300 to go winless at BetOnline prior to the game, and was +290 to beat KC.

– Sunday’s most bet NFL games:

  1. Lions-Patriots
  2. Dolphins-Broncos
  3. Packers-Vikings
  4. Redskins-49ers
  5. Cowboys-Giants

– Most popular parlays/teasers:

  1. Packers (91%)
  2. 49ers (90%)
  3. Patriots (85%)
  4. Cowboys (85%)

– Despite having this weekend’s highest over/under and putting up 50+ points in each of their last two games, Green Bay is listed behind Indianapolis, Philadelphia, and Denver for Sunday’s top scoring team. The Eagles (+400) topped all teams with 43 points scored against Tennessee.

NFL highest scoring team

– In his first game back from suspension, BetOnline set the over/under for Josh Gordon receiving yards at 74.5 yards and the star receiver went off for 8 receptions and 120 yards. He was also listed at +100 to score a touchdown, but did not reach the end zone.

– With Ryan Mallett (Pectoral) out for the season, Ryan Fitzpatrick will start at quarterback for the Texans on Sunday. Fitzpatrick is 5-4 ATS this season and 40-44 ATS all-time.

– There are currently four games off the board across the sports betting marketplace — all of which involve teams who played on Monday night: Cleveland at Buffalo, San Diego at Baltimore, New Orleans at Pittsburgh and Miami at New York Jets.

– NFL Week 13 current lines at Pinnacle versus preseason lines:

  1. Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-7 | -3)
  2. Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3 | -1.5)
  3. Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (pick ’em | -2.5)
  4. Oakland Raiders at St. Louis Rams (-7| -5.5)
  5. Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5 | pick ‘em) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  6. San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (NA | -3)
  7. Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (NA | -2.5)
  8. Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-6 | -5)
  9. Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts (-10 | -6)
  10. New York Giants (-2.5 | -5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
  11. Carolina Panthers (-3 | -3) at Minnesota Vikings
  12. New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers (NA | -2.5)
  13. Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5 | -4)
  14. New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (-3 | -3.5)
  15. Denver Broncos (-1 | -3) at Kansas City Chiefs
  16. Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (NA | -1)

– Earlier this season we published an article about why former playoff teams were often undervalued following a loss. This system has gone 2-0 ATS this season and 63-31 ATS (+28.76 units) overall. Assuming the Chiefs continue receiving less than 30% of spread bets, they would be the third system match of the season.

– Most likely Super Bowl matchups via 5Dimes:

  1. NE vs. GB +715
  2. DEN vs. GB +744
  3. NE vs. SEA +1755
  4. DEN vs. SEA +1815
  5. NE vs. ARI +2055
  6. DEN vs. ARI +2130
  7. NE vs. SF +2440
  8. DEN vs. SF +2525
  9. NE vs. PHI +2750
  10. DEN vs. PHI +2850

– The first Super Bowl matchup future not featuring either the Patriots or the Broncos is IND/GB at +3275.

– Since last week the MVP odds remain essentially unchanged with two small exceptions: Texans DE JJ Watt moved from +2500 to 2000 and Packers WR Jordy Nelson made his debut at 50/1.

  1. Aaron Rodgers -110
  2. Peyton Manning +300
  3. DeMarco Murray +1000
  4. Andrew Luck +1200
  5. Tom Brady +1200
  6. JJ Watt +2000
  7. Jamaal Charles +2500
  8. Ben Roethlisberger +5000
  9. Jordy Nelson +5000
  10. Marshawn Lynch +5000
  11. Rob Gronkowski +5000

– You can view the latest odds and public betting trends on our free NFL odds page, but here are some key Week 13 injuries to monitor:

  1. Texans RB Arian Foster, Groin, Questionable
  2. Broncos RB Montee Ball, Groin, Out
  3. Vikings WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Knee, Questionable
  4. Broncos CB Aqib Talib, Hamstring, Questionable
  5. Broncos TE Julius Thomas, Ankle, Questionable
  6. Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald, Knee, Questionable
  7. Lions RB Reggie Bush, Ankle, Questionable
  8. Chiefs S Eric Berry, Illness, Out For Year

– For the latest news and injury updates, make sure to visit our free NFL injury page.

– NFL Divisional Odds via Sportsbook.com

  1. NFC East: Eagles -160, Cowboys +130
  2. NFC North: Packers -1000, Lions +400, Bears +15000
  3. NFC South: Saints -250, Falcons +280, Panthers +700, Buccaneers +15000
  4. NFC West: Cardinals -150, Seahawks +300, 49ers +350
  5. AFC North: Bengals +175, Ravens +200, Steelers +250, Browns +800
  6. AFC West: Broncos -700, Chiefs +600, Chargers +900

– Early Super Bowl XLIX Line: NFC -1 | O/U 53.5

–  Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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