Los Angeles Rams Among Best NFL Conference Championship Bets

Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley (30) runs the ball against the Arizona Cardinals during the first half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
Los Angeles Rams Among Best NFL Conference Championship Bets

Super Bowl 53 will be played at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia in February. To get there, teams will need to first win conference championships.

The Los Angeles Rams (+250) are the clear favorites in the NFC, while the New England Patriots (+325) are still top dogs in the AFC despite starting the season 1-2.

Will it be Rams-Patriots in the Super Bowl? Should bettors wager on LA and New England to win their conference championships? To find out, we compared our projections to current betting lines at Bovada.lv.

For example: As mentioned, the Patriots’ odds of winning the AFC are +325. For us to feel comfortable wagering on Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, they would need to win the AFC 23.5% (which is 100/(100 +325)) of the time.

According to our simulations, New England has a 16.5% chance of winning the AFC, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +325 odds.

Based on the difference in implied probability and projected chance, five teams have value to win their respective conferences. The analysis below looks at the three best wagers bettors can place ahead of Week 4’s action.

Los Angeles Rams

  • Current odds: +250, Implied Probability: 28.6%
  • Rams win the NFC 44.7% of the time

The Rams are the best team in football. Sean McVay’s squad leads the NFL in point differential, is No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and is the most likely team to make the playoffs (98.5%), win its division (96.5%), conference (44.7%) and Super Bowl (28.5%), according to our model.

A bettor might prefer a team with longer odds, but considering the Rams should be closer to +125 and not +250, there is still considerable value.

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Current odds: +350, Implied Probability: 22.2%
  • Chiefs win the AFC 28.9% of the time

Andy Reid has created an offensive juggernaut. Patrick Mahomes & Co. have scored 15 touchdowns through three games, which ties them with the 1998 San Francisco 49ers and the 2013 Denver Broncos for the most touchdowns through the first three games of a season.

The Chiefs also join the 2007 Patriots as the only team since 1970 to score five or more touchdowns in each of their first three games. If you believe in the Chiefs, as our model does, this could be the last chance to buy the high-octane offense at a good price.

Tennessee Titans

  • Current odds: +2200, Implied Probability: 4.3%
  • Titans win the AFC 9.3% of the time

Betting the Rams and Chiefs, that makes sense. You probably didn’t need to be sold on the best team in football and the most exciting offense since the Greatest Show on Turf. But the Titans are a different story.

While Tennessee isn’t a sexy pick, Mike Vrabel’s team has been impressive considering the obstacles it’s had to overcome. The Titans have won two games that Blaine Gabbert started, have played without their starting offensive tackles and lost their most consistent offensive weapon in Delanie Walker.

The Titans are 2-0 in the AFC South, have an impressive road win against the Jacksonville Jaguars and are worth a flier to win the AFC.

Here are the other teams with value based on differences in implied probability and projected chance:

  • Philadelphia Eagles (+600)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (+650)

This article was originally posted on ActionNetwork.com by John Ewing. Sports Insights is part of The Action Network. 

No Comments
Post a Comment