NCAA Bowl Games Opening Line Report

NCAA Bowl Games Opening Line Report

Here is an early look at Sports Insights’ college football betting trends for every NCAA Bowl game.  Once these games get a little closer to kickoff, we will revisit the data to see how betting has affected the market, and discuss some possible line value and contrarian opportunities.

Team Betting % Current
Open Notes
Temple 53% -6.5 -6.5 The first bowl game of the year has split betting percentages which has caused no line movement thus far.
Wyoming 47% 6.5 6.5
Utah State 48% -3 -3 Similar scenario for the second game of the bowl season.
Ohio 52% 3 3
UL Lafayette 23% 5 5 Early action is on San Diego State, but the money is not lopsided enough to move the line yet.
San Diego St 77% -5 -5
Florida Intl 66% -4.5 -4 2 out of 3 bets on FIU has moved the line 1/2 a point.
Marshall 34% 4.5 4
Lousiana Tech 11% 11 11 TCU is a big public favorite after
winning the Rose Bowl last season and upsetting Boise State earlier this season.
TCU 89% -11 -11
Arizona St 15% 14 13 Speaking of Boise, public backing has caused the line to move to the key number of 14 against Arizona State who welcomes June Jones to the sidelines.
Boise State 85% -14 -13
Nevada 16% 6 6.5 Some early reverse-line-movement
suggests there may be some value in taking Nevada on Christmas Eve.
Southern Mississippi 84% -6 -6.5
North Carolina 17% 4 4 Both teams enter with 7-5 records, but
Mizzou enters as the favorite and the public is backing them early.
Missouri 83% -4 -4
Western Michigan 29% 2.5 2.0 Public backing has moved the line from
2 to 2.5, but it will take a lot more backing to get the number to 3.
Purdue 71% -2.5 -2.0
Louisville 62% 2.5 1.5 More money (but not more bets) coming
in on NC State has moved the line a full point.
NC State 38% -2.5 -1.5
Toledo 74% -3 -3 3 out of 4 bets have action on Toledo,
but it hasn’t moved the line off of 3.
Air Force 26% 3 3
California 36% 3 4 Texas’ disappointing season hasn’t
prevented most bettors from taking the Longhorns, but the line movement
suggests some sharp money on Cal.
Texas 64% -3 -4
Notre Dame 41% 3 3 Both teams came into the season
overrated, but huge followings have this game as one of the most bet of the bowl season.
Florida State 59% -3 -3
Washington 17% 9 9 Heisman favorite RG3 has public
bettors jumping all over Baylor as favorites, but the line is holding strong at 9.
Baylor 83% -9 -9
Tulsa 29% 2.5 2.5 BYU is getting more public action, but
not many bets on this game, so the line hasn’t moved at all.
BYU 71% -2.5 -2.5
Team Betting % Current
Open Notes
Rutgers 39% -2 -2 No line movement yet, but since the game is being played at Yankee Stadium, you can bet it will take well over 3 hours to finish.
Iowa State 61% 2 2
Wake Forest 10% 6.5 6.5 A whopping 90% is taking Mississippi State. The public loves taking SEC teams, as they have performed well in bowl games.
Mississippi State 90% -6.5 -6.5
Iowa 47% 14 15.5 Big line movement in this game as some sharp money thinks Iowa can cover. The line has now settleed at the key number of 14.
Oklahoma 53% -14 -15.5
Texas A&M 54% -10 -9.5 Texas A&M has fired coach Mike Sherman, but is still a ten-point favorite over Northwestern.
Northwestern 46% 10 9.5
Utah 34% 3.5 3 2 out of 3 bets on Georgia Tech has moved the line 1/2 a point as most bettors think Utah will have a hard time defending the triple option.
Georgia Tech 66% -3.5 -3
UCLA 27% 3 3 UCLA made the Pac-12 championship (only because Reggie Bush needed more houses) but bettors aren’t buying in. They would rather lay the 3 with Illinois.
Illinois 73% -3 -3
Cincinnati 41% 2.5 3 The line has already moved off of 3, despite a majority of bets taking Vanderbilt as a small favorite.
Vanderbilt 59% -2.5 -3
Virginia 22% 1.5 1 Another case where the public will gladly take an SEC team giving up a point or two.
Auburn 78% -1.5 -1
Penn State 45% 5 6 Contrasting styles pit Case Keenum against scoring-challenged Penn State who is still dealing with a sex scandal.
Houston 55% -5 -6
Michigan State 46% 3.5 3 Both teams made it to their conference championships and lost. Again, it looks like the money is on the SEC team and moved the line off of 3.
Georgia 54% -3.5 -3
Nebraska 28% 1 1 See a theme trending? Public is taking another SEC team as Nebraska is coming off a disappointing first season in the Big Ten.
South Carolina 72% -1 -1
Florida 35% -2 -2 65% of bettors like the Buckeyes in the Urban Meyer bowl, who will be closely watching unless he wants to spend time with his family or has a health issue that day.
Ohio State 65% 2 2
Wisconsin 25% 6.5 5.5 The Rose Bowl is seeing heavy action on the Ducks and their prolific offense, although Todd Fuhrman of Caesar’s Palace expects some late money on Wisconsin.
Oregon 75% -6.5 -5.5
Stanford 29% 3.5 3.5 The public expects Oklahoma State to be highly motivated after missing out on the BCS Championship game. They have no problem laying 3.5 against Andrew Luck and Stanford.
Oklahoma State 71% -3.5 -3.5
Team Betting % Current
Open Notes
Michigan 76% -2.5 -2 Virginia Tech is coming off of an ugly loss to Clemson, and that image is fresh in the minds of bettors, who would rather bet Denard Robinson and the Wolverines.
Virginia Tech 24% 2.5 2
West Virginia 10% 3.5 3.5 One of the most lopsided betting percentages of the bowl season has Clemson taking down Big East Champion West Viriginia in this BCS Bowl (that is not a typo, this really is a BCS bowl).
Clemson 90% -3.5 -3.5
Kansas State 30% 7.5 8 Kansas State has been a public favorite for most of the season so it will be interesting to see if people jump at the chance to take the Wildcats getting more than a touchdown.
Arkansas 70% -7.5 -8
SMU 24% 5.5 6.5 Another example of reverse line movement as the line has moved toward SMU despite only receiving 24% of bets.
Pittsburgh 76% -5.5 -6.5
Arkansas State 58% -1 -1 Nearly a pick’em game as what turns out to be the appetizer to the BCS Championship main course.
Northern Illinois 42% 1 1
Alabama 35% -1 1.5 Alabama is now a small favorite after some strong line movement in the early going. We will definitely monitor this game closely to see if there is some buyback on LSU.
LSU 65% 1 -1.5

* Betting Percentages reflect Sports Insights’ Spread Betting Trends Data

No Comments
Post a Comment

Send this to friend