NCAA Bowl Games Opening Line Report
Here is an early look at Sports Insights’ college football betting trends for every NCAA Bowl game. Once these games get a little closer to kickoff, we will revisit the data to see how betting has affected the market, and discuss some possible line value and contrarian opportunities.
|Temple||53%||-6.5||-6.5||The first bowl game of the year has split betting percentages which has caused no line movement thus far.|
|Utah State||48%||-3||-3||Similar scenario for the second game of the bowl season.|
|UL Lafayette||23%||5||5||Early action is on San Diego State, but the money is not lopsided enough to move the line yet.|
|San Diego St||77%||-5||-5|
|Florida Intl||66%||-4.5||-4||2 out of 3 bets on FIU has moved the line 1/2 a point.|
|Lousiana Tech||11%||11||11||TCU is a big public favorite after
winning the Rose Bowl last season and upsetting Boise State earlier this season.
|Arizona St||15%||14||13||Speaking of Boise, public backing has caused the line to move to the key number of 14 against Arizona State who welcomes June Jones to the sidelines.|
|Nevada||16%||6||6.5||Some early reverse-line-movement
suggests there may be some value in taking Nevada on Christmas Eve.
|North Carolina||17%||4||4||Both teams enter with 7-5 records, but
Mizzou enters as the favorite and the public is backing them early.
|Western Michigan||29%||2.5||2.0||Public backing has moved the line from
2 to 2.5, but it will take a lot more backing to get the number to 3.
|Louisville||62%||2.5||1.5||More money (but not more bets) coming
in on NC State has moved the line a full point.
|Toledo||74%||-3||-3||3 out of 4 bets have action on Toledo,
but it hasn’t moved the line off of 3.
|California||36%||3||4||Texas’ disappointing season hasn’t
prevented most bettors from taking the Longhorns, but the line movement
suggests some sharp money on Cal.
|Notre Dame||41%||3||3||Both teams came into the season
overrated, but huge followings have this game as one of the most bet of the bowl season.
|Washington||17%||9||9||Heisman favorite RG3 has public
bettors jumping all over Baylor as favorites, but the line is holding strong at 9.
|Tulsa||29%||2.5||2.5||BYU is getting more public action, but
not many bets on this game, so the line hasn’t moved at all.
|Rutgers||39%||-2||-2||No line movement yet, but since the game is being played at Yankee Stadium, you can bet it will take well over 3 hours to finish.|
|Wake Forest||10%||6.5||6.5||A whopping 90% is taking Mississippi State. The public loves taking SEC teams, as they have performed well in bowl games.|
|Iowa||47%||14||15.5||Big line movement in this game as some sharp money thinks Iowa can cover. The line has now settleed at the key number of 14.|
|Texas A&M||54%||-10||-9.5||Texas A&M has fired coach Mike Sherman, but is still a ten-point favorite over Northwestern.|
|Utah||34%||3.5||3||2 out of 3 bets on Georgia Tech has moved the line 1/2 a point as most bettors think Utah will have a hard time defending the triple option.|
|UCLA||27%||3||3||UCLA made the Pac-12 championship (only because Reggie Bush needed more houses) but bettors aren’t buying in. They would rather lay the 3 with Illinois.|
|Cincinnati||41%||2.5||3||The line has already moved off of 3, despite a majority of bets taking Vanderbilt as a small favorite.|
|Virginia||22%||1.5||1||Another case where the public will gladly take an SEC team giving up a point or two.|
|Penn State||45%||5||6||Contrasting styles pit Case Keenum against scoring-challenged Penn State who is still dealing with a sex scandal.|
|Michigan State||46%||3.5||3||Both teams made it to their conference championships and lost. Again, it looks like the money is on the SEC team and moved the line off of 3.|
|Nebraska||28%||1||1||See a theme trending? Public is taking another SEC team as Nebraska is coming off a disappointing first season in the Big Ten.|
|Florida||35%||-2||-2||65% of bettors like the Buckeyes in the Urban Meyer bowl, who will be closely watching unless he wants to spend time with his family or has a health issue that day.|
|Wisconsin||25%||6.5||5.5||The Rose Bowl is seeing heavy action on the Ducks and their prolific offense, although Todd Fuhrman of Caesar’s Palace expects some late money on Wisconsin.|
|Stanford||29%||3.5||3.5||The public expects Oklahoma State to be highly motivated after missing out on the BCS Championship game. They have no problem laying 3.5 against Andrew Luck and Stanford.|
|Michigan||76%||-2.5||-2||Virginia Tech is coming off of an ugly loss to Clemson, and that image is fresh in the minds of bettors, who would rather bet Denard Robinson and the Wolverines.|
|West Virginia||10%||3.5||3.5||One of the most lopsided betting percentages of the bowl season has Clemson taking down Big East Champion West Viriginia in this BCS Bowl (that is not a typo, this really is a BCS bowl).|
|Kansas State||30%||7.5||8||Kansas State has been a public favorite for most of the season so it will be interesting to see if people jump at the chance to take the Wildcats getting more than a touchdown.|
|SMU||24%||5.5||6.5||Another example of reverse line movement as the line has moved toward SMU despite only receiving 24% of bets.|
|Arkansas State||58%||-1||-1||Nearly a pick’em game as what turns out to be the appetizer to the BCS Championship main course.|
|Alabama||35%||-1||1.5||Alabama is now a small favorite after some strong line movement in the early going. We will definitely monitor this game closely to see if there is some buyback on LSU.|
* Betting Percentages reflect Sports Insights’ Spread Betting Trends Data