At Sports Insights, our basic philosophy has always involved contrarian betting. Whether it’s betting against the public, pounding the league’s least popular teams or taking teams after a loss, we always zig when others zag. This ideology powers our highly profitable MLB Best Bets (+9.5 units this season, +153.9 units since 2008) and our MLB Betting Against the Public system (+8.95 units this season, +116.54 units since 2005).
Over the first two months of the season, betting against the public was essentially treading water as teams receiving less than 50% of moneyline bets had earned just +2.3 units. However, in June alone we saw this basic contrarian filter produce a 190-192 record with +15.69 units won. We also noticed that when we analyzed more lopsided betting trends, our profits began to soar.
|Public Betting||Record||Units Won||ROI|
As you can see, teams receiving less than 40% of public bets posted a 128-119 record with +31 units won during June. That means a $100/game bettor would have earned $3,100 by taking every team fitting this basic system. For what it’s worth, 19.03 units were earned by home teams while 11.97 units were earned by visitors. This falls in line with past research, which indicates that home-field advantage is vastly undervalued in baseball.
This also lines up with our historical analysis. Using our Bet Labs software, we found that June has actually been the most profitable month for MLB betting against the public. Since 2005, teams receiving less than 50% of moneyline bets have gone 1980-2350 (+44.35 units) in June. This is particularly interesting because it’s the most profitable month during the regular season, however, in the past we’ve discussed why contrarian betting is particularly lucrative during the postseason.
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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.