Fade Top MLB Teams Down the Stretch With the Help of Sharp Bettors

Fade Top MLB Teams Down the Stretch With the Help of Sharp Bettors

Everyone has football on the brain and I can’t blame them, but there is still money to be made betting on baseball.

With just a couple of weeks left in the regular season, there is opportunity to be had betting against the best teams in the league. Often times, they’ll be resting key players and resorting to September call-ups that are getting a chance thanks to the 40-man roster.

Since most of the teams at the top of the standings have been there all season long, public bettors feel good about putting some cash down on them and sportsbooks are juicing up the lines big time. This creates value on the other side and trust me, there’s a lot of value. Betting against these top teams in their final ten games of the season has proven to be very profitable in years past.

For the kicker, we only want to be looking at teams with reverse line movement. Though this has been a profitable endeavor regardless of how the line has moved, targeting teams with reverse line movement helps us find which teams sharp bettors are on while also lowering our sample size and improving our return on investment (ROI).

Taking dogs w/ RLM against teams w/ at least a .550 win%

CriteriaRecordUnits WonROI
Dogs vs. teams in their final 10 games769-1008+52.83+3.0%
Dogs w/ RLM vs. teams in their final 10 games333-397+44.86+6.1%
Dogs w/ RLM vs. teams w/ .550 win% in their final 10 games161-165+62.49+19.2%

Teams with a winning percentage of 55% or higher usually don’t have much to play for down the stretch. Generally speaking, they are locked into a playoff spot and aren’t fighting for their lives like the teams right above the .500 mark. This season, the Dodgers, Indians, Astros, Nats, DBacks, and Red Sox are all essentially locks to stay over .550, while the Cubs, Yankees, Rockies, and potentially Brewers may fall in and out as they are within a few percentage points of the boundary.

As you can see, excluding the rest of the league and including just the best teams more than triples our ROI. If you want to get even more specific, I’ve included the game-by-game results in the table below. However, I suggest following this system as a whole rather than getting nitpicky. Just because this approach has gone bananas on game 156 in the past doesn’t mean that it will this year. There’s no reason to believe that game 155 couldn’t have just as good of a year.

Game by Game

Opponent Game #RecordUnitsROI
15311-16-0.71-2.6%
15419-16+9.37+26.8%
15516-28-4.24-9.6%
15624-13+25.81+69.8%
15717-22+1.75+4.5%
15816-17+4.02+12.2%
15913-14+3.79+14.0%
16016-11+11.34+42.0%
16115-12+8.95+33.1%
16214-16+2.41+8.0%

Moral of the story: When football is being played, don’t forget about your old friend that helped you make it through the summer…time to make some big bucks betting baseball.

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Marky Mark

I'm the guy who does his job. You must be the other guy.

1 Comment
  • Ron Jeremie
    September 21, 2017 at 12:08 am

    Great stuff cosmo
    Do you have a betlab system to share for this? If so, please post on think tank

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