Divisional Round Super Bowl Odds: Falcons Flying High After Wild Card Win

Divisional Round Super Bowl Odds: Falcons Flying High After Wild Card Win

As you may have heard, all four underdogs covered over Wild Card weekend. Two of those dogs won outright, and one of them is now a 2.5-point favorite in the divisional round and +800 to win the Super Bowl.

As you can tell from the chart below, that team is the Atlanta Falcons.

TeamJan 8Dec 31Dec 18Dec 11Dec 4Nov 27Nov 20Nov 13Nov 7Oct 31Oct 24Oct 17Oct 10Oct 3Sep 26Sep 19Sep 12Sep 7July 15
(BetOnline)
March 6Jan 10, 2017
Patriots+160+200+150+200+200+220+225+300+350+350+350+400+450+500+400+350+400+275+325+450+600
Vikings+300+400+600+800+600+800+1000+1400+1000+1200+1200+1600+4000+4000+2500+3000+2500+4000+3600+2000+2500
Steelers+500+400+450+350+350+350+350+400+400+400+450+500+700+450+700+700+600+900+1200+1000+1000
Saints+600+600+1000+800+1200+1600+1000+600+1000+1200+1400+2000+4000+4000+8000+10000+5000+2500+5000+6000+8000
Falcons+800+2500+1400+1400+2000+1600+3000+2500+3000+1800+1400+900+800+800+600+700+1200+1600+1000+1200+1600
Eagles+1400+1500+1000+1200+600+400+350+450+400+600+700+800+1600+2000+3000+3000+3000+4000+5000+5000+6000
Jaguars+2000+2200+1200+1400+2500+3000+2000+2500+3500+5000+6000+10000+5000+10000+8000+10000+6000+10000+8000+8000+8000
Titans+8000+10000+10000+8000+4000+3000+4000+3000+3000+4000+4000+3500+5000+3000+2000+3000+4000+2000+4000+4000+4000
RamsN/A+1000+1200+1200+1400+1400+1600+1200+1600+2000+1800+4000+8000+5000+6000+8000+8000+10000+15000+10000+10000
ChiefsN/A+2500+2500+3000+4000+2500+1600+1000+1000+600+800+600+600+900+1000+1400+1600+3000+2500+2000+2000
PanthersN/A+2500+2000+2000+3000+1600+2500+3000+2500+2500+3000+2000+1400+3000+5000+2000+2000+3000+2800+2000+2000
BillsN/A+10000+10000+30000+50000+30000+50000+20000+10000+5000+6000+8000+8000+8000+20000+30000+20000+20000+10000+8000+8000
Seattle SeahawksN/AN/A+6000+1800+1200+2000+2000+1400+1200+800+1000+900+1000+1000+1200+1000+1000+800+1000+1200+1200
Los Angeles ChargersN/AN/A+3000+1800+2500+2500+10000+20000+10000+10000+6000+8000+30000+50000+20000+10000+6000+6000+4500+6000+8000
San Francisco 49ersN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999900+200000+200000+100000+50000+20000+50000+50000+10000+30000+30000+30000
Dallas CowboysN/AN/A+6000+8000+8000+20000+6000+3000+1600+2000+2000+2500+2000+1600+800+1000+800+1200+900+800+1000
Baltimore RavensN/AN/A+4000+4000+8000+10000+10000+50000+20000+10000+20000+10000+8000+10000+4000+2500+4000+5000+4000+2500+2500
Detroit LionsN/AN/A+20000+20000+100000+10000+3000+5000+6000+10000+5000+5000+4000+2500+3000+4000+8000+10000+5000+6000+6000
Oakland RaidersN/AN/AN/A+8000+4000+3500+8000+4000+3000+10000+2500+4000+3000+2000+1000+800+700+800+1100+1200+2000
Miami DolphinsN/AN/AN/A+200000+200000+500000+100000+30000+30000+30000+10000+10000+20000+20000+10000+8000+10000+10000+6600+3000+4000
Cincinnati BengalsN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000+30000+30000+100000+30000+8000+10000+8000+8000+20000+30000+20000+10000+8000+6600+4000+5000
Washington RedskinsN/AN/AN/AN/A+200000+30000+30000+30000+10000+20000+8000+5000+8000+8000+8000+10000+20000+10000+6600+4000+5000
Arizona CardinalsN/AN/AN/AN/A+200000+30000+100000+50000+20000+30000+30000+10000+20000+8000+10000+6000+5000+5000+3600+2000+2500
New York JetsN/AN/AN/AN/A+200000+200000+100000+100000+30000+100000+50000+30000+30000+50000+100000+999900+200000+100000+50000+10000+10000
Houston TexansN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+100000+30000+30000+10000+4000+4000+3500+4000+2500+3500+8000+10000+4000+1800+4000+6000
Tampa Bay BuccaneersN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+500000+100000+50000+100000+20000+8000+8000+4000+3000+4000+3000+4000+4000+3300+3000+4000
Denver BroncosN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+100000+50000+20000+8000+3000+2800+1400+1400+2000+2000+4000+4000+2500+2000+2000
Chicago BearsN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+200000+50000+20000+20000+10000+20000+50000+50000+10000+50000+10000+10000+17500+10000+10000
Indianapolis ColtsN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+200000+200000+100000+100000+50000+10000+10000+20000+20000+50000+20000+10000+4000+2500+2500
New York GiantsN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999900+50000+50000+20000+30000+10000+8000+3000+2000+1200+1600+2000+2500
Cleveland BrownsN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999900+999900+999900+999900+999900+200000+50000+50000+30000+10000+25000+30000+30000
Green Bay PackersN/AN/A+10000+4000+4000+20000+10000+8000+10000+8000+6000+3000+500+600+800+1000+700+800+850+1200+1200

After being +2500 just one week ago, last year’s NFC champs are inside of 10-1 for the first time since mid-October. Think recency bias is playing a role here? You may be onto something.

Projections are certainly not an exact science, but it’s worth noting that FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Predictions still give Atlanta just a 9% chance to win it all this year, up from 4% last week. What does that mean for bettors? Well, you’d need odds of +1011 or higher to make that a worthwhile wager.

As it turns out, the only team whose odds are worth your while at this point is Atlanta’s upcoming opponent. With the inexperienced Nick Foles behind center, I’d imagine the Eagles aren’t one of the more popular Super Bowl bets. However, they are given a 15% chance to win the Lombardi, which is more than twice the probability implied by their +1400 odds.

In the AFC, the Patriots improved to +160 without playing a game, probably due to a combination of betting popularity and their surprising divisional-round opponent, but more likely the latter.

Live look at Titans fans seeing a jump from +10000 to +8000:

Photo by Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Danny Donahue

If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am gonna be a very rich dude. @dannyjdonahue on Twitter

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