Does Derek Carr’s Injury Back Raiders into a Corner?
Raiders stud QB Derek Carr suffered a transverse process fracture in his back Sunday against the Broncos and will certainly require time to recover. However, there’s disagreement regarding how much he’ll miss as it’s been reported as anywhere from two to six weeks.
Dr. David J. Chao, a former NFL head team doctor, believes that Carr will return to action sooner than the extreme timeline of six weeks.
— David J. Chao, MD (@ProFootballDoc) October 2, 2017
From a Super Bowl odds and futures value perspective, the difference between two and six weeks is yuge. Heading into Week 4, the Raiders were 14-1 to win the Super Bowl at Bookmaker.eu and, according to Odds Consultant Scott Cooley, they expect to reopen Oakland in the 25/1- 30/1 range.
If Carr only misses two games, there could be value in Oakland’s Super Bowl price, however, it’s certainly a gamble in the event that he’s out for the full six weeks, which includes home games against Baltimore, LA Chargers and Kansas City with road matchups against the Bills and Dolphins. Oakland has a bye in Week 10.
Interestingly, even with EJ Manuel under center Oakland is a 1-point home favorite at Bookmaker for their Week 5 game with Baltimore.
Our research indicates that Carr is worth approximately 5-6 points to the spread, suggesting that the Raiders would be 6-7 point favorites, if healthy.