College Football Week 10 Betting Recap

– The Thursday night game was actually bet more than the NFL game this week. FSU-Louisville finished with 42,294 bets while Saints-Panthers finished with 36,427 bets. This was consistent around the market as Aliante Casino reported more money bet on FSU-Louisville than New Orleans-Carolina. In terms of betting handle on each side, more money was bet on FSU and they were able to reward bettors with a huge comeback in the 2nd half to both win and cover the spread.

– With FSU covering on Thursday night, Top 3 teams are now 7-14 ATS in road weekday games.

– TCU entered the week as the only team with a perfect ATS record on the season, but failed to cover at West Virginia. TCU did win the game on a last second field goal, 31-30, to keep their National Title hopes within reach.

– Pittsburgh (-3) and UCLA (-6.5) both closed with less than 30% of bets. UCLA covered, winning 17-7, and Pitt would have pushed but missed an easy field goal at the end of regulation and ultimately lost in overtime 51-48. Since 2005, home favorites receiving <30% of bets have now gone 41-30 ATS.

– Air Force/Army easily went under the total, now pushing the Under to 21-7 between service academies since 2005.

– New Mexico has had the most games this year where the line moved at least 2 points against them (i.e. moving from -2 to -4).

– Texas and USC have had the most games where the line moved at least 2 points in their favor (i.e. moving from +2 to +4).

– Texas A&M suspended QB Kenny Hill for 2 games and did not start on Saturday against UL Monroe. Hill was listed at +500 to win the Heisman just a month ago, and without him the Aggies struggled and barely won 21-16 as a 34-point favorite.

Via our Bet Labs software:

– We’ve highlighted it every week but the improvement is significant– Last year there were 11 teams that failed to win more than 3 games ATS (combining to go 30-100 ATS). Those same teams are now 51-43 ATS on the year.

– Road teams dominated this week, going 31-20 ATS.

– Favorites also dominated, going 34-19 ATS.

– The public had its first great week of the year, with teams receiving >65% of bets going 25-10 ATS. We’d expect to see a drop-off next weekend.

Heisman Odds risers from Week 9:

Marcus Mariota -275 from -200

Nick Marshall +1,200 from +1,500

Trevone Boykin +3,000 from no odds

Jameis Winston +4,000 from +5,000

Biggest Title movers since preseason:

Oregon +450 from +900

Mississippi State +750 from +12,000

TCU +1,000 from +12,000

Arizona State +2,800 from +12,000

What to look for in Week 11:

Alabama -6 at LSU:  Bama getting 68% of early bets and have moved to -6.5 at Pinnacle and 5Dimes, but remain at -6 at CRIS.

Auburn -21 vs. Texas A&M:  Auburn opened -14.5 at BetOnline but were bet up to -21.5 by Monday morning and are getting nearly 90% of early bets.

Oklahoma -4.5 vs. Baylor:  Betting is fairly split so fair but Oklahoma has moved to -4.5 after opening -4 at CRIS.

TCU -5 vs. Kansas State:  TCU opened -6 but with less than 40% of early bets, have dropped to -5 at CRIS and -4.5 at Pinnacle.

Arizona St -1 vs. Notre Dame:  ASU opened -2 but have dropped to -1 despite relatively even betting on both sides.

Michigan St -3.5 vs. Ohio State:  Sparty opened -2 but have been bet up quickly to -3.5 behind over 70% of bets.

 

Our College Football Best Bets are 52-37 ATS for +10.2 units won this season and you can get them along with all other sports with our discounted packages.

Check out all of the latest Week 11 College Football betting lines, public betting trends, breaking injuries and more at our free NCAAF live odds page.

 

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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