Which College Basketball Futures Are Offering Value?

Which College Basketball Futures Are Offering Value?

Before releasing our March Madness Bracket Simulator earlier this month, we posted an article detailing which College Basketball futures were being overvalued and which teams were good buys for opportunistic bettors. Our ultimate conclusion was that although Kentucky was undoubtedly the best team in the country, their future price was simply too expensive.

After running one million simulations, Kentucky was crowned the National Champion 27.2% of the time. However, that implied probability correlated with a future price of +267 — not the -115 that was being offered at 5Dimes.

One team that jumped out was the Virginia Cavaliers who won the championship in 18.1% of our simulations, but whose future price equated to an implied probability of just 11.76%. That would indicate that Virginia should have been listed at +452 instead of +750.

Although Kentucky still remains undefeated, a lot has changed in the College Basketball landscape over the past month. Despite an undefeated record over the past month, Virginia’s title futures have slipped from +750 to +1000 while their odds of winning the title on our bracket simulator have slipped from 18.1% to 14.3%.

Even with both of these figures curiously dropping, the +5.21% difference between our simulator projections for Virginia and their 5Dimes futures remains the highest of any team in the nation.

It’s also interesting to note that one month ago, there were nine teams that were offering value on the futures market. That number has now dropped to just four teams with Virginia (+1,000), Villanova (+2,000), Gonzaga (+1,500) and Arizona (+1,800). Gonzaga is the only new addition to this list, while we’ve seen major line movement for the other six teams.

  1. Oklahoma: +7,500 to +5,500
  2. Butler: +75,000 to +6,600
  3. Northern Iowa: +17,500 to +4,000
  4. Xavier: +125,000 to +25,000
  5. Wichita State: +10,000 to +7,000
  6. Georgetown: +30,000 to +10,000

It would seem that both Butler and Xavier were both accidentally mispriced by the sportsbook with oddsmakers tacking an extra zero onto Butler’s price and forgetting a one before Xavier’s odds. There were likely bets placed on the other four teams, leading to shorter odds.

The table below uses the current College Basketball Futures from 5Dimes to produce an implied probability of winning the title. We then compared those implied probabilities with our own simulation results to determine which teams were offering value in the futures market, and which should be avoided.

TeamOddsImplied OddsProbabilityDifference
Virginia10009.09%14.30%5.21%
Villanova20004.76%8.60%3.84%
Gonzaga15006.25%9.40%3.15%
Arizona18005.26%8.30%3.04%
Seton Hall5000000.02%0.00%-0.02%
Michigan5000000.02%0.00%-0.02%
Memphis5000000.02%0.00%-0.02%
Georgia Tech5000000.02%0.00%-0.02%
UTEP4850000.02%0.00%-0.02%
UNLV5000000.02%0.00%-0.02%
Wake Forest5000000.02%0.00%-0.02%
California5000000.02%0.00%-0.02%
Vanderbilt5000000.02%0.00%-0.02%
Alabama5000000.02%0.00%-0.02%
Creighton5000000.02%0.00%-0.02%
Clemson5000000.02%0.00%-0.02%
Florida State3000000.03%0.00%-0.03%
Massachusetts2000000.05%0.00%-0.05%
Louisiana Tech2000000.05%0.00%-0.05%
Florida1000000.10%0.00%-0.10%
Iowa500000.20%0.10%-0.10%
Minnesota1000000.10%0.00%-0.10%
Cincinnati500000.20%0.00%-0.20%
Xavier250000.40%0.20%-0.20%
Harvard500000.20%0.00%-0.20%
Oregon500000.20%0.00%-0.20%
Dayton500000.20%0.00%-0.20%
Murray State500000.20%0.00%-0.20%
Texas A&M500000.20%0.00%-0.20%
New Mexico State475000.21%0.00%-0.21%
LSU300000.33%0.10%-0.23%
Mississippi300000.33%0.10%-0.23%
Georgia300000.33%0.10%-0.23%
San Diego State300000.33%0.10%-0.23%
Connecticut400000.25%0.00%-0.25%
UCLA400000.25%0.00%-0.25%
Purdue300000.33%0.00%-0.33%
Illinois300000.33%0.00%-0.33%
Baylor66001.49%1.10%-0.39%
Pittsburgh250000.40%0.00%-0.40%
VCU250000.40%0.00%-0.40%
Oklahoma State250000.40%0.00%-0.40%
St. John's250000.40%0.00%-0.40%
Utah25003.85%3.40%-0.45%
Texas175000.57%0.10%-0.47%
Michigan State100000.99%0.50%-0.49%
BYU200000.50%0.00%-0.50%
Kansas33002.94%2.40%-0.54%
Georgetown100000.99%0.40%-0.59%
Oklahoma55001.79%1.20%-0.59%
Wichita State70001.41%0.80%-0.61%
Providence150000.66%0.00%-0.66%
Colorado State150000.66%0.00%-0.66%
Stanford125000.79%0.00%-0.79%
SMU100000.99%0.10%-0.89%
West Virginia66001.49%0.60%-0.89%
Miami Florida100000.99%0.00%-0.99%
Indiana100000.99%0.00%-0.99%
NC State90001.10%0.10%-1.00%
Arkansas85001.16%0.10%-1.06%
Butler66001.49%0.30%-1.19%
Louisville40002.44%1.00%-1.44%
Northern Iowa40002.44%1.00%-1.44%
Maryland50001.96%0.30%-1.66%
Ohio State40002.44%0.40%-2.04%
Iowa State33002.94%0.70%-2.24%
Notre Dame33002.94%0.50%-2.44%
North Carolina28003.45%0.50%-2.95%
Duke10009.09%5.90%-3.19%
Wisconsin65013.33%6.60%-6.73%
Kentucky-11553.49%30.3%-23.19%

Kentucky (28-0), who has only three games left on their schedule before the SEC tournament, is currently listed at +180 at Sportsbook.com to win the National Championship with their undefeated record still intact. Other vastly overpriced teams include:

  1. Wisconsin (+650)
  2. Duke (+1,000)
  3. North Carolina (+2,800)
  4. Notre Dame (+3,300)
  5. Iowa State (+3,300)

Bettors can view the latest College Basketball odds and trends at our free NCAAB odds page, but we’re also curious about your opinion. Will you be betting any futures? Are we overlooking any teams? Please leave your thoughts and comments in the section below.

David Solar

David was the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He has since moved on to greener pastures.

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