Lost in Peyton Manning’s return to Indy, Reggie Wayne’s season-ending injury and a kicker’s ridiculous tackle is that another NFL team, popular among bettors, failed to cover the spread. The Broncos (76% of spread bets) joined the Patriots (77%) as teams that received more than 75% of spread wagers as road favorites and lost straight up. The 49ers (82%) were the week’s one winner for public bettors, covering as 3-point favorites against the Titans.
Over the summer, we published an article examining just how profitable betting against the pubic in the NFL has been since 2003. The basis of the analysis was our 80/20 betting system, which takes advantage of one-sided public action by highlighting teams that receive 20% or less of spread bets.
While the betting public historically does not perform well ATS (against the spread) in the NFL, this season has been historically bad for bettors consistently backing popular teams.
Using our NFL Betting Trends data, we looked at the correlation between public betting and ATS performance so far this season.
|Spread %||ATS Record||ATS Win %||ROI|
|More than 55%||38-41||48.1%||-4.9%|
|More than 65%||18-29||38.3%||-24.8%|
|More than 75%||4-12||25.0%||-49.5%|
The more the public likes a team, the worse that team has performed ATS this season. Bettors fading these trendy public teams have already earned a very nice profit through eight weeks of NFL action.