2017 NFL: Week 4 Opening Line Report
Public bettors: stay away from sharp objects, tops of buildings and bridges, and loaded weapons.
Contrarians made out like bandits this weekend, while public bettors would have really needed to choose their spots wisely to make any sort of profit. Hopefully, the Cowboys win/cover helped squares live to see another day.
Let’s take a look at how week four’s lines are shaping up so far. Instead of including the lookahead lines from CG Tech from April like I have in the past, I’ve added Westgate’s lines from last week. This should help demonstrate how each team’s performance this weekend influenced the lines.
|Matchup||Bookmaker Current||Bookmaker Open||Westgate (9/19)|
|CHI @ GB||GB -7.5||GB -7.5||GB -11.5|
|NO @ MIA||NO -3||NO -2||MIA -1|
|CAR @ NE||NE -8||NE -8||NE -8.5|
|LAR @ DAL||DAL -7.5||DAL -7.5||DAL -8.5|
|DET @ MIN||N/A||N/A||N/A|
|TEN @ HOU||TEN -2||TEN -1||TEN -2.5|
|JAX @ NYJ||JAX -3.5||JAX -3.5||JAX -4.5|
|CIN @ CLE||CIN -3||CIN -4||CIN -1|
|PIT @ BAL||PIT -2.5||PIT -2||PK|
|BUF @ ATL||ATL -7.5||ATL -8||ATL -9|
|NYG @ TB||TB -3||TB -4||TB -6|
|PHI @ LAC||PK||LAC -1||PHI -1|
|SF @ ARI||ARI -7||ARI -7||ARI -7|
|OAK @ DEN||DEN -2.5||DEN -2.5||DEN -1.5|
|IND @ SEA||SEA -13||SEA -13||SEA -16|
|WAS @ KC||KC -7||KC -7||KC -8.5|
Panthers @ Patriots
There were plenty of lopsided games this past week, but right now it doesn’t look like this week will have very many. The Patriots may end up getting the most action of the week, which isn’t exactly a rarity. Though they won this Sunday against the Texans, they needed a classic Tom Brady game-winning drive to do so. If they hadn’t…
The Texans (+761) would have had the 3rd biggest upset since 2003 if they held on
The ’09 Raiders have the top 2 vs PIT (+890) & PHI (+800) pic.twitter.com/R9H65G4sna
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) September 25, 2017
Meanwhile, the Panthers were stifled by the Saints and their elite, great, decent, mediocre, bad, awful… let’s go with godforsaken defense. The week before, they scored just nine points against the Bills. With that being said, the Patriots have had trouble with mobile quarterbacks in the past. We just saw it with DeShaun Watson and we could see it again this weekend with Cam Newton. Since 2003, they’re 7-8 ATS against QBs that I would describe as “mobile” and 127-77 ATS against everyone else.
Though Bookmaker remains at their opening line of -8, many other books around the market are at -8.5 or even -9.
Steelers @ Ravens
The answer is: both of these AFC North teams pooped the bed this weekend. The Ravens brought great shame to Baltimore as they were shellacked by Blake Bortles and the Jaguars in front of thousands of Londoners who were surely wondering when the appropriate time to start singing “When The Saints Come Marching In” was.
The Steelers couldn’t take advantage and gain a game in the standings, though, as they were on the wrong end of the second biggest upset of the season (Chiefs over Pats #1).
It appears that oddsmakers believe that the Ravens’ performance was more telling, with the line moving in the Steelers’ direction since last week’s Westgate lookahead.
With bets and dollars all over Pittsburgh, I imagine this game will hit 3 at some point during the week.
Oakland @ Denver
As was the case with the Steelers and Ravens, both of these divisional foes are coming off disappointing losses. Derek Carr was only able to pass for 13 combined yards to Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree vs. the Redskins and things won’t be any easier against Denver’s strong secondary. The Broncos didn’t fare much better against a Bills team that had scored three points in their previous game.
Right now, it is the home team getting 65% of the early bets. The line has yet to move to 3 at Bookmaker, but appears to be trending in that direction with the Broncos now -2.5 (-119). Pinnacle, BetOnline, and Caesar’s Palace are among a handful of books that have already moved the line to the key number of 3.