The 2017 Confederations Cup semifinals begin on Wednesday with Portugal taking on Chile. The other semifinal will take place Thursday as Germany play Mexico. Both matchups are highly anticipated as these are clearly the four best teams, and I’m still pulling for a Mexico/Chile final.
Here are the lines and early betting percentages for each semifinal matchup. Reminder that these are 3-way moneylines which include the draw, so bets are graded on 90 minutes of action.
Chile +214 (29%)
Portugal +144 (62%)
Draw +236 (9%)
Mexico +261 (23%)
Germany +110 (65%)
Draw +269 (12%)
It’s been a rough tournament for underdogs, as they’ve won just 1 of 12 games so far (Mexico +184 vs. Russia). Favorites have won 7 games but down nearly 2.5 units if you bet every single one. The draw has been very profitable, with 4 wins in 12 games, good for +4.84 units.
For the semifinal matchups, the public is heavy on both favorites (Portugal and Germany) but there’s been little movement so far. This means that the market is willing to take a majority of early bets on the favorites without feeling the need to move their lines. This also indicates that bettors will continue to take the favorites at a good price, but I think there’s value elsewhere.
If you’ve read any of my past previews on the EPL, MLS, World Cup, Copa America or Euros, you know that I’m privy toward betting the draw. This is because the public often overlooks the draw, especially in elimination games, which adds value to the draw line. Since I’m already invested on both Chile (+320) and Mexico (+1100) to win the tournament, I’ll likely be hedging a small amount on both semifinal draws. As always, be sure to shop around the market to get the best line possible, especially for these 3-way moneylines which will differ at every sportsbook.
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