2017 Big 12 Football Betting Preview

2017 Big 12 Football Betting Preview

In 2016 the Big 12 failed to send a team to the College Football Playoff for the second time in three seasons since the new playoff system was implemented in 2014. Fortunately for fans of the conference, the Big 12 Championship game has returned for the 2017 season after a six-year absence.  With the updated system increasing the conference’s chances of sending a team to the CFP, the Big 12 will look to reestablish itself as a Power Five conference.

Although the Big 12 doesn’t have the recent postseason accolades, there is still terrific positional talent returning for the upcoming season. Senior quarterback Baker Mayfield, who’s twice finished in the top five of Heisman Trophy balloting, will be an integral part of his Oklahoma team that is the +102 favorite to win the Big 12 title. Oddsmakers also like the Sooner’s chances to win the National Championship, as they have the fifth best odds in the country at +1800.

Oklahoma State, who is +450 to win the conference, has most of its key players returning as well. The senior OSU duo consisting of quarterback Mason Rudolph and receiver James Washington will be cogs of one of the most explosive offenses in college football. The Cowboys are among the top-15 teams with the best odds to win the National Championship at +4250, and are one of my favorite bets to make the CFP (+800).

2017 Futures

TEAMWin Big 12 (8/15 5Dimes)Make/Miss CFP (8/15 5Dimes)Win National Championship (8/15 5Dimes)Win Total (8/15 5Dimes)
Oklahoma+102+250/-350+180010 (u-202)
Oklahoma St. +450+800/-1700+42509 (o-110)
Texas+500+850/-1750+50007.5 (o-190)
Kansas St. +1025+1600/-4800+120008 (o-145)
TCU+1025+1700/-5100+115007.5 (o-165)
West Virginia +1650+7000/-30000+500007 (u-120)
Baylor +3800+8000/-35000+600007.5 (u-130)
Texas Tech. +10500NA+1500005 (u-125)
Iowa St. +12500NA+2500005.5 (u-160)
Kansas+50000NA+9999993 (u-125)

Texas enters this season in a state of transition after hiring the offensive-minded Tom Herman as its new head coach after an inconsistent 2016 campaign under Charlie Strong. The loss of former 2,000-yard rusher D’Onta Foreman will hurt, but it gives sophomore quarterback Shane Buechele a chance to showcase his skills in an offense that will be more reliant on its passing attack. Offensive tackle Connor Williams, one of the best returning OL in the country, is primed for another huge season as he looks to cement himself as a first-round worthy talent.

After a 10-win season, the West Virginia Mountaineers could be a factor again. Ex-Florida quarterback Will Grier is tabbed as the team’s starting quarterback after being deemed eligible to start the opener. Grier, who still had six games remaining on his one-year suspension for a positive PED test, transferred to WVU in 2016 and sat out the season. In case you forgot, Grier led UF to a 6-0 start as a freshman and top-10 ranking before his suspension. It’s easy to see why fans in Morgantown are excited to see how head coach Dana Holgorsen will utilize the former sought-after recruit in his air raid offense.

2016 Results 

TeamATS Record (Units Won)Moneyline Record (Units Won)Over Record
Oklahoma 6-6 (-0.4)8-2 (0.2)6-6
Oklahoma St. 7-5 (1.5)8-3 (3.5)7-5
Texas6-6 (3.4)5-7 (-3.1)4-8
Kansas St. 5-7 (-2.2)7-4 (0.8)6-6
TCU3-9 (-6.3)5-6 (-2.4)5-7
West Virginia 5-6-1 (-1.3)9-2 (1.8)5-7
Baylor3-9 (-6.1)4-6 (-4.7)4-8
Texas Tech8-4 (3.4)4-7 (-2.3)6-5
Iowa St. 7-5 (1.6)3-9 (-6.9)7-4
Kansas 6-6 (-0.3)2-9 (1.8)5-7

Those betting on Big 12 action last year were not very profitable. Only four teams (Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Teach and Iowa State) returned a profit betting against the spread, with only Texas Tech and Texas yielding more than two units over the course of the season. Oklahoma State was one of the only two Big 12 teams to return a profit betting on the moneyline along with Kansas, despite the Jayhawks only mustering a 2-win campaign.

In a conference known for its high-octane offenses, those hoping to cash in on their over tickets were left disappointed in 2016. Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Iowa State were the only teams in the conference to have a winning record when taking the over. Baylor, who has been one of the top scoring teams in the nation in years past, finished an underwhelming 4-8 when betting the over.

2017-18 Heisman Candidates (8/15 5Dimes):

  • Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma) +850, Mason Rudolph (QB, Oklahoma St.) +3600, Shane Buechele (QB, Texas) +5500, Will Grier (QB, West Virginia) +6000, James Washington (WR, Oklahoma St.) +15000, Kenny Hill (QB, TCU) +20000, Sewo Olonilua (RB, TCU) +20000, Nick Shimonek (QB, Texas Tech) +25000, Malik Jefferson (LB, Texas) +25000

Will the third time be the charm for Mayfield? The Oklahoma star has the second best odds in the country at +850, only behind USC quarterback Sam Darnold, to take home the hardware. Oddsmakers also like Oklahoma State’s Rudolph chances to finish in the Heisman conversation. He’ll look to build off an impressive season where he finished seventh in the country with 4,091 passing yards, and threw only four interceptions.

Further down the list is standout Texas linebacker Malik Jefferson. Jefferson is one the most talented players in the conference, and in the country for that matter. Similar to teammate Connor Williams, he’s projected to be an early pick in the 2018 NFL Draft and is also one of the preseason favorites for the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Award. Jefferson is one of only five defensive players with odds listed on 5Dimes to win the Heisman.

Interested in our other conference previews? ACCBig Ten, Pac 12

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Mike Marsh

Mike Marsh is a Sports Information Specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached via email at mike.marsh@actionnetwork.com.

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