2017-18 Premier League Week 3 Betting Preview

2017-18 Premier League Week 3 Betting Preview

Week 2 of the Premier League saw Arsenal get upset at Stoke City 1-0 but it wasn’t even the biggest moneyline payout. Stoke opened +394 and closed +337 despite getting just 13% of moneyline tickets, so clearly late sharp money was taking the home side. Huddersfield got another big win and have taken all 6 points available this season. Before the year, they were -155 favorites to be relegated but those odds have drifted to +150. In the marquee matchups of the weekend, Chelsea scored late to win at Tottenham 2-1, and Everton drew 1-1 with Man City, which was the biggest moneyline payout of the weekend (+515).

Our value plays earned +0.44 units as the moneyline parlay of Liverpool & Southampton cashed at +144 odds, but couldn’t quite hang on for the draw between Burnley and West Brom.

Week 2 Results:
Home 5 of 10 (+2.05 units)
Away 4 of 10 (+2.10 units)
Draw 1 of 10 (-3.85 units)

Week 2 Biggest Upsets:
Everton/Man City Draw (opened +466, closed +515)
Stoke City (opened +394, closed +337) vs. Arsenal

Season Results:
Home 9 of 20 (-0.70 units)
Away 8 of 20 (+12.86 units)
Draw 3 of 20 (-5.25 units)

It’s only been a couple weeks but here are updated EPL title odds:

I really like the slate this week in terms of value, although I won’t be betting any of the marquee games so let’s get to those first. On Sunday, Liverpool are slight +117 favorites at home against Arsenal, and these teams have played some highly entertaining matches over the last few years. Public wagers have been pretty even on all 3 moneyline options including the draw, and that’s where I’d lean. It feels like we’ll get another late goal by either side, but I don’t feel too confident in betting on it.

Chelsea host Everton, also on Sunday, and both teams are riding highs coming into the weekend. Chelsea got a huge road win at Tottenham last week on a late goal while Everton defied the odds and grabbed a point at Man City. Chelsea are pretty considerable favorites and deservedly so, as I expect them to eke past Everton. However, I just don’t feel good enough to warrant a wager at -210 odds.

Now let’s get to where there IS some value, and I see a couple draws with little public action and some reverse-line movement: Stoke/WBA +215 and Brighton/Watford +240. Each matchup should be low-scoring and I’m envisioning 1-1 finals in each. As for teams to win, I really like Newcastle +140 vs. West Ham, and Southampton +108 at Huddersfield. The public has been inspired by Huddersfield’s hot start and have poured their money into them to win their third straight game, but I’m not buying it. Southampton have played well so far this year too, but results haven’t exactly shown that. It’s a bit rare for a favorite like Southampton to only get 33% of tickets, but line movement is also in their direction (+117 to +108) so that’s where I’m betting.

Most Lopsided: 82% on Crystal Palace vs. Swansea

Biggest Line Moves: Bournemouth (+1197 to +965) vs. Man City,  Leicester (+1177 to +1031) at Man Utd

Value Plays (Season 1-2, -0.56 units): Newcastle +140, Southampton +108, Stoke/WBA Draw +215, Brighton/Watford Draw +240

As always, our Premium and Pro members can track all market odds, betting percentages, line moves and more.

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

3 Comments
  • BossOfBetting
    August 25, 2017 at 7:37 pm

    I think that Liverpoll will have more chances to win the match if Nacho Monreal will playing in the center of 3 defensive players 3-rd match in a row…

  • James
    August 29, 2017 at 6:42 pm

    Congrats on the picks Dan. All the draws paid off big time and Newcastle finally showed up in a big way. Bittersweet for you though with Arsenal continuing to show a half effort. Change needs to happen there soon.

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