2017-18 Premier League Week 3 Betting Preview
Week 2 of the Premier League saw Arsenal get upset at Stoke City 1-0 but it wasn’t even the biggest moneyline payout. Stoke opened +394 and closed +337 despite getting just 13% of moneyline tickets, so clearly late sharp money was taking the home side. Huddersfield got another big win and have taken all 6 points available this season. Before the year, they were -155 favorites to be relegated but those odds have drifted to +150. In the marquee matchups of the weekend, Chelsea scored late to win at Tottenham 2-1, and Everton drew 1-1 with Man City, which was the biggest moneyline payout of the weekend (+515).
Our value plays earned +0.44 units as the moneyline parlay of Liverpool & Southampton cashed at +144 odds, but couldn’t quite hang on for the draw between Burnley and West Brom.
Week 2 Results:
Home 5 of 10 (+2.05 units)
Away 4 of 10 (+2.10 units)
Draw 1 of 10 (-3.85 units)
Week 2 Biggest Upsets:
Everton/Man City Draw (opened +466, closed +515)
Stoke City (opened +394, closed +337) vs. Arsenal
Home 9 of 20 (-0.70 units)
Away 8 of 20 (+12.86 units)
Draw 3 of 20 (-5.25 units)
It’s only been a couple weeks but here are updated EPL title odds:
Current Premier League title odds at 5Dimes
Man City +150
Man Utd +225
Arsenal +1600 https://t.co/EhlvEgNh8d
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) August 24, 2017
I really like the slate this week in terms of value, although I won’t be betting any of the marquee games so let’s get to those first. On Sunday, Liverpool are slight +117 favorites at home against Arsenal, and these teams have played some highly entertaining matches over the last few years. Public wagers have been pretty even on all 3 moneyline options including the draw, and that’s where I’d lean. It feels like we’ll get another late goal by either side, but I don’t feel too confident in betting on it.
Chelsea host Everton, also on Sunday, and both teams are riding highs coming into the weekend. Chelsea got a huge road win at Tottenham last week on a late goal while Everton defied the odds and grabbed a point at Man City. Chelsea are pretty considerable favorites and deservedly so, as I expect them to eke past Everton. However, I just don’t feel good enough to warrant a wager at -210 odds.
Now let’s get to where there IS some value, and I see a couple draws with little public action and some reverse-line movement: Stoke/WBA +215 and Brighton/Watford +240. Each matchup should be low-scoring and I’m envisioning 1-1 finals in each. As for teams to win, I really like Newcastle +140 vs. West Ham, and Southampton +108 at Huddersfield. The public has been inspired by Huddersfield’s hot start and have poured their money into them to win their third straight game, but I’m not buying it. Southampton have played well so far this year too, but results haven’t exactly shown that. It’s a bit rare for a favorite like Southampton to only get 33% of tickets, but line movement is also in their direction (+117 to +108) so that’s where I’m betting.
Most Lopsided: 82% on Crystal Palace vs. Swansea
Biggest Line Moves: Bournemouth (+1197 to +965) vs. Man City, Leicester (+1177 to +1031) at Man Utd
Value Plays (Season 1-2, -0.56 units): Newcastle +140, Southampton +108, Stoke/WBA Draw +215, Brighton/Watford Draw +240
As always, our Premium and Pro members can track all market odds, betting percentages, line moves and more.