2016 Republican Primaries: The Rise of Carly Fiorina

Welcome to the third installment of our ongoing 2016 betting series.

Much has changed since our debut post. Hillary Clinton remains the front-runner to win the presidency, but her once massive lead has dwindled greatly thanks to her e-mail scandal, the rise of Bernie Sanders and the potential run of Vice President Joe Biden. Hillary was +105 at Sportsbook back in late May. She is now +150 at Bovada.

Donald Trump continues to lead the Republican field, however he no longer looks as invincible as he did earlier this summer. For the first time in nearly three months, Trump’s 2016 odds have slipped, not risen. After topping out at +475 in early September, Trump now sits at +500. (Bovada)

Overall, the 2016 race has morphed into a battle between insiders and outsiders. Establishment candidates like Hillary and Jeb Bush have struggled, while anti-establishment candidates like Trump, Ben Carson and Sanders have skyrocketed.

Following the second GOP debate, we can now add Carly Fiorina to the list of non-establishment candidates on the rise.

THE FIORINA SURGE

The unquestioned winner of the second GOP Debate, which took place at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California, was former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.

Fiorina — the only female Republican candidate — was prepared, well-spoken and quick on her feet. She also did something no other GOP hopeful has been able to do: she took down Trump.

In response to a question about Trump’s attack on her appearance (“Look at that face! Would anyone vote for that?”), Fiorina cleverly replied “I think all women over this country heard very clearly what Mr. Trump said,” which was followed by thunderous applause from the crowd.

For the first time in the campaign, an opposing candidate left Trump speechless. He even appeared to blush in embarrassment.

The oddsmakers agree with the assessment that Fiorina was the big winner. Entering the debate, Fiorina was listed at +5000 to win the White House at Bovada. Following the debate, she is now down to +1400, which puts her in a tie with Marco Rubio for the 3rd-best 2016 odds of any GOP candidate.

The table below displays the odds for each of the Republican candidates to win the 2016 Presidential Election. (via Bovada)

Candidate Post-Debate (9/22/15) Pre-Debate (9/9/15)
Trump +500 +475
Bush +600 +475
Rubio +1400 +1400
Fiorina +1400 +5000
Kasich +2500 +2500
Carson +3300 +3300
Christie +4000 +5000
Cruz +4000 +4000
Paul +10000 +10000
Walker N/A +1500
Huckabee N/A N/A

Chris Christie was the only other Republican candidate to see their odds improve following the debate. The New Jersey Governor went from +5000 to +4000, which puts him in a tie with Ted Cruz for 6th-place.

Meanwhile, Bush fell from +475 to +600, which puts him behind Trump for the first time. At +500, Trump now has sole possession of first place among all GOP candidates.

Scott Walker, once considered a Republican front-runner along with Bush and Marco Rubio, has completely fallen off. Back in July, the Wisconsin Governor was +900 to win the White House. On Tuesday he announced that he is dropping out of the race entirely.

In addition to seeing her 2016 odds improve, Fiorina’s odds of winning the Republican nomination also skyrocketed from +2000 to +700 at BetOnline.

The table below displays the odds for each of the Republican candidates to win the party’s nomination. (via BetOnline)

Candidate Post-Debate (9/22/15) Pre-Debate (9/9/15)
Bush +175 +175
Trump +300 +300
Rubio +400 +400
Fiorina +700 +2000
Carson +1400 +800
Kasich +1600 +1000
Christie +2000 +2500
Huckabee +2000 +2000
Cruz +2500 +1400
Paul +3300 +2000

It’s interesting to note that although Trump has the best odds of any Republican to win the White House at Bovada, Bush still has the best odds to win the GOP nomination at BetOnline.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

Are you buying the Fiorina surge? Do you still think Trump still has what it takes to win the White House? Will Christie continue to rise? Are you sticking with Bush to win the nomination? Or will you be backing an under-the-radar candidate like Marco Rubio or John Kasich?

Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section below.

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Josh Appelbaum

Josh Appelbaum is the Customer Service Manager, Affiliate Manager and Political Expert for Sports Insights. He can be reached at joshua@sportsinsights.com.

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