2016 Republican Convention: Donald Trump Prop Bets

On Monday night, Republicans kicked off their National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio.

The Convention runs from July 18-21 and takes place at the Quicken Loans Arena, home of LeBron James and the NBA Champion Cleveland Cavaliers. Throughout the week, a plethora of speakers will take to the stage to fire up Republican voters and unite the party behind Donald Trump, the presumptive nominee. Some notable speakers include Scott Baio, Willie Robertson of Duck Dynasty, UFC President Dana White, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, Texas Senator Ted Cruz and RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, along with dozens of others.

Day One of the Convention got off to a rocky start. First, the Convention floor erupted in chaos when “Never Trump” supporters attempted (unsuccessfully) to force a roll call vote which would allow pledged delegates to abandon Trump as the nominee. More controversy ensued later in the night when Melania Trump was accused of plagiarizing her Convention speech from Michelle Obama.

The Convention culminates on Thursday night, when Donald Trump will give his highly anticipated acceptance speech, officially becoming the Republican nominee for President.

Earlier this week, oddsmakers released a series of Trump prop bets for his Thursday night speech. We’ve compiled a complete list and highlighted several that we believe are offering value.

The following props come from BetOnline

  1. Will Trump say “All Lives Matter”? Yes +190, No -240
  2. Will Trump say “Black Lives Matter”? Yes +260, No -350
  3. Will Trump say “Build A Wall”? Yes -170, No +140
  4. Will Trump say “LeBron James”? Yes +200, No -260
  5. Will Trump say “Obamacare”? Yes -2000, No +1000
  6. Will Trump say “Supreme Court”? Yes -1500, No +800
  7. Will Trump say “Bernie Sanders”? Yes -150, No +120
  8. How many applause breaks will take place? Over 103.5 (-105), Under 103.5 (-125)
  9. How many boo breaks will take place? Over 6 (-105), Under 6 (-125)
  10. How many times will Trump say “Crooked Hillary”? Over 4.5 (+145), Under 4.5 (-175)
  11. How many times will Trump say “Make America Great Again”? Over 3 (-120), Under 3 (-110)
  12. How many total words will Trump use in his Thursday night speech? Over 4249.5 (-115), Under 4249.5 (-115)
  13. What color tie will Trump wear? Red -400, Blue +350, Other +1000

You can also bet on which word Trump says first during his speech. Currently “ISIS” is a slight favorite over “Mexico.”

When placing your bet on politics or sports, we always stress the importance of shopping for the best line. This means opening up multiple accounts at different sportsbooks so you can place your bet at the book offering the best number and the highest payout.

Let’s take a look at some other props being offered around the market, starting with 5Dimes, a sharper book with higher limits.

TRUMP5d

In addition to BetOnline and 5Dimes, Trump props are also available at Bovada, a square book with lower limits.

  1. Will Trump say “Black Lives Matter”? Yes +170, No -250
  2. Will Trump say “China” two or more times? Yes +100, No -140
  3. Will Trump say “Crooked Hillary”? Yes -175, No +135
  4. Will Trump say “Erdogan”? Yes +200, No -300
  5. Will Trump say “LeBron James”? Yes +150, No -200
  6. Will Trump say “NAFTA”? Yes +170, No -250
  7. Will Trump say “Obamacare”? Yes -700, No +400
  8. Who will Trump mention first? Hillary Clinton -700, Bernie Sanders +400

You can also bet on whether Trump will say “Lying Ted”  or “Stephen Colbert” during his acceptance speech.

STAFF PICKS

Josh Appelbaum, Customer Service Manager: All Lives Matter +190 and Black Lives Matter +260 (BetOnline)

Racial tensions between the police and people of color have been boiling over in America as of late. These tensions reached a fever pitch in recent weeks with the shootings of Alton Sterling and Philando Castile followed by the horrific police killings in Dallas and Baton Rouge. Trump has been highly critical of the Black Lives Matter movement, denouncing them on several occasions for “inciting” violence toward police and routinely rebuking the movement with the phrase “All Lives Matter.” With so much anxiety in the air, Trump is sure to utter both phrases. I would parlay the two but, unfortunately, you cannot parlay props at most sportsbooks.

Andrew Fine, Sports Information Specialist: LeBron James +250 (5Dimes)

Grabbing James at plus-money is not something you see every day, so take advantage of it. LeBron’s Cavs won the NBA Finals a month ago, which was the first time a major sports team from Cleveland won a championship since 1964. Did I mention the Convention is taking place in Cleveland? Thus it’s more likely that Trump mentions James and his team’s historic accomplishment during his speech.

Mark Gallant: Sports Information Specialist: Does not say “Build a Wall” +140 (BetOnline)

Although I believe there is a good chance Trump will mention building a wall, there are several different wordings he could use without saying the exact phrase “build a wall,” which is why I see some value at +140.

Nicole Patti: Marketing Coordinator: Red Tie -400 (BetOnline)

For some time now, I’ve found myself wondering who advises Trump as to what he should wear. He seems to have an affinity for oversized suits and ties, which is a bit surprising considering he has the money for a stylist, and he even has immediate family members who work in the fashion industry. As for the color of the tie he will wear on Thursday, I feel pretty confident choosing “red.” It seems to be a solid bet, if only because it’s the color of the GOP party. Although, if you ask me, what makes for a more interesting prop bet is whether he’ll commit yet another fashion faux pas and don a tie that extends beneath his belt.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

Will you be watching Trump’s Thursday night Convention speech? Will you be placing a wager on any of the prop bets listed? Are there any props not listed that you wish were available?

Please leave your thoughts in the comments section below.

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Josh Appelbaum

Josh Appelbaum is the Customer Service Manager, Affiliate Manager and Political Expert for Sports Insights. He can be reached at joshua@sportsinsights.com.

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