2016 NFL Draft: Fallout and Odds Movement
After three days and 253 selections, the 2016 NFL Draft is over. This year saw two blockbuster pre-draft trades, several moves from the Browns’ new analytically-driven front office, and the bizarre events surrounding former Ole Miss tackle Laremy Tunsil.
Tunsil, who at one point was considered a contender for the first overall pick, dropped to 13 due to a bizarre series of events. Just minutes before the draft, a video of Tunsil smoking marijuana from a gas-mask bong was posted on Tunsil’s Twitter account. Although it was deleted immediately, this transgression clearly hurt Tunsil’s reputation. Immediately after being selected, Tunsil also acknowledged that he took money from coaches while in college.
Several sportsbooks had posted an over/under on Tunsil’s draft position with most offering 4.5. Anybody who took the over won easily, but Tunsil was hardly the only prospect who saw their stock drop on draft day.
Oddsmakers set the over/under on UCLA linebacker Myles Jack’s draft position at 8 despite concerns regarding a lingering knee issue. Clearly most general managers were scared off by the fact that Jack could require microfracture surgery in the near future, which caused Jack to plummet precipitously. Not only was Jack selected outside the top eight picks, he wasn’t even selected in the first round — falling to the Jacksonville Jaguars with the 36th overall pick.
The table below displays the over/under for several prominent draft prospects along with their actual landing spot.
Of the fifteen players with draft position prop bets, nine players went over and six players went under. It’s also interesting to see that oddsmakers were fairly accurate with their lines since only five players with plus money were paid out. From that player pool, Ohio State’s Joey Bosa was clearly the most surprising. The over/under on Bosa’s draft position ranged from 3.5 to 6.5 with 5Dimes paying out 6/1 on the tenacious defensive end being selected in the top three picks.
Oddsmakers were right on the mark with their other props — especially in regards to the quarterback prospects. Jared Goff was listed as -1500 to be selected with the first overall pick, Paxton Lynch was -700 to be selected ahead of Connor Cook and Dak Prescott was -300 to be selected ahead of Cardale Jones.
One of the more intriguing pre-draft questions was who would be the first wide receiver drafted? Although Sportsbook.com listed Laquon Treadwell with the lowest over/under (20.5), sharper oddsmakers at Bookmaker believed that Josh Doctson would be the first off the board. They were both wrong.
TCU's Josh Doctson (+180) is expected to be the first receiver selected in tonight's NFL Draft. via @BookMakerdotEU pic.twitter.com/4krbKFdmUl
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) April 28, 2016
To the surprise of many, the Cleveland Browns traded up to select Corey Coleman with the 15th overall pick. The former Baylor standout was +280 to be the first wide receiver selected with an over/under of 21.5 (o-240). That triggered a run on wide receivers with Will Fuller, Josh Doctson and Laquon Treadwell going in three consecutive picks between 21 and 23.
The table below displays all 253 picks from the 2016 NFL Draft.
Some of the other entertaining storylines include the Ohio State Buckeyes, who had 11 players selected including five in the first round. Both of those totals came in under the line set by oddsmakers — 13.5 and 5.5 respectively. Here are the results for some of the other prop bets we discussed last week. They are ranked from most to least probable based on their odds.
- Hunter Henry first tight end selected (-3300)
- Over 2.5 quarterbacks selected in the 1st round (-900)
- Under 1.5 running backs selected in the 1st round (-500)
- Under 7.5 defensive linemen selected in the 1st round (-475)
- Under 5.5 wide receivers and running backs selected in the 1st round (-400)
- Over 2.5 Ole Miss players selected in the 1st round (-215)
- Under 3.5 quarterbacks selected in the 1st round (-170)
- Under 4.5 linebackers selected in the 1st round (-120)
- Braxton Miller selected in 3rd round (+110)
- Under 3.5 Alabama players selected in the 1st round (+115)
- Over 3.5 wide receivers selected in the 1st round (+125)
- Over 5.5 offensive linemen selected in the 1st round (+155)
There weren’t many surprises in this year’s draft with the exception of slightly more offensive lineman (6) and wide receivers (4) being picked in the 1st round than oddsmakers anticipated.
With the draft in the books, most NFL experts will spend the next few weeks grading each team’s selections and analyzing which general managers did the most to improve their roster. Truthfully, I believe that it’s too early to grade each team’s picks until we have actually seen them in game action.
Last season most analysts praised the Falcons and Cowboys while critiquing the Chiefs and Patriots. In hindsight, the rookies for Atlanta and Dallas were fairly disappointing while Kansas City’s Marcus Peters and a trio of New England offensive linemen thrived. The point is that the NFL Draft is truly unpredictable, but that doesn’t fans from overreacting.
Although many fans believe that the draft can greatly impact their favorite team’s chances of winning the Super Bowl, that’s simply not the case. According to Jeff Sherman (@golfodds), the Westgate Superbook does not adjust their futures at all based on the NFL Draft results. In fact, any line movement over the last week was due to “fine tuning” after making changes to their win totals and divisional odds.
The table below displays how the NFL Draft results have impacted the win total and Super Bowl futures at the Westgate Superbook. Even though the odds from April 25th came right before news of Tom Brady’s suspension, the Patriots remain the favorite at +600.
Which team do you think had the best draft? Do you agree that projecting the impact of rookies is nearly impossible? Are any of these futures offering value?
Please leave your thoughts in the section below, and don’t forget to bookmaker our free NFL odds page for all of your betting needs.
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