2016 NFL Draft: Fallout and Odds Movement

2016 NFL Draft: Fallout and Odds Movement

After three days and 253 selections, the 2016 NFL Draft is over. This year saw two blockbuster pre-draft trades, several moves from the Browns’ new analytically-driven front office, and the bizarre events surrounding former Ole Miss tackle Laremy Tunsil.

Tunsil, who at one point was considered a contender for the first overall pick, dropped to 13 due to a bizarre series of events. Just minutes before the draft, a video of Tunsil smoking marijuana from a gas-mask bong was posted on Tunsil’s Twitter account. Although it was deleted immediately, this transgression clearly hurt Tunsil’s reputation. Immediately after being selected, Tunsil also acknowledged that he took money from coaches while in college.

Several sportsbooks had posted an over/under on Tunsil’s draft position with most offering 4.5. Anybody who took the over won easily, but Tunsil was hardly the only prospect who saw their stock drop on draft day.

Oddsmakers set the over/under on UCLA linebacker Myles Jack’s draft position at 8 despite concerns regarding a lingering knee issue. Clearly most general managers were scared off by the fact that Jack could require microfracture surgery in the near future, which caused Jack to plummet precipitously. Not only was Jack selected outside the top eight picks, he wasn’t even selected in the first round — falling to the Jacksonville Jaguars with the 36th overall pick.

The table below displays the over/under for several prominent draft prospects along with their actual landing spot.

PlayerDraft PositionOver/UnderBest LineTeam
Joey Bosa33.5Under +650San Diego Chargers
Ezekiel Elliot48.5Under +100Dallas Cowboys
Ronnie Stanley67.5Under -190Baltimore Ravens
DeForest Buckner76.5Over +165San Francisco 49ers
Laremy Tunsil134.5Over -160Miami Dolphins
Corey Coleman1521.5Under +180Cleveland Browns
Shaq Lawson1914.5Over +200Buffalo Bills
Darron Lee2013Over -160New York Jets
Josh Doctson2222.5Under -115Washington Redskins
Laquon Treadwell2320.5Over -185Minnesota Vikins
Paxton Lynch2621.5Over +150Denver Broncos
Myles Jack368Over -120Jacksonville Jaguars
Derrick Henry4536.5Over -150Tennessee Titans
Pharoh Cooper11756.5Over -260Los Angeles Rams
Moritz Boehringer180202.5Under -115Minnesota Vikings

Of the fifteen players with draft position prop bets, nine players went over and six players went under. It’s also interesting to see that oddsmakers were fairly accurate with their lines since only five players with plus money were paid out. From that player pool, Ohio State’s Joey Bosa was clearly the most surprising. The over/under on Bosa’s draft position ranged from 3.5 to 6.5 with 5Dimes paying out 6/1 on the tenacious defensive end being selected in the top three picks.

Oddsmakers were right on the mark with their other props — especially in regards to the quarterback prospects. Jared Goff was listed as -1500 to be selected with the first overall pick, Paxton Lynch was -700 to be selected ahead of Connor Cook and Dak Prescott was -300 to be selected ahead of Cardale Jones.

One of the more intriguing pre-draft questions was who would be the first wide receiver drafted? Although Sportsbook.com listed Laquon Treadwell with the lowest over/under (20.5), sharper oddsmakers at Bookmaker believed that Josh Doctson would be the first off the board. They were both wrong.

To the surprise of many, the Cleveland Browns traded up to select Corey Coleman with the 15th overall pick. The former Baylor standout was +280 to be the first wide receiver selected with an over/under of 21.5 (o-240). That triggered a run on wide receivers with Will Fuller, Josh Doctson and Laquon Treadwell going in three consecutive picks between 21 and 23.

The table below displays all 253 picks from the 2016 NFL Draft.

111Los Angeles RamsJared GoffQBCal
122Philadelphia EaglesCarson WentzQBNorth Dakota State
133San Diego ChargersJoey BosaDEOhio State
144Dallas CowboysEzekiel ElliottRBOhio State
155Jacksonville JaguarsJalen RamseyDBFlorida State
166Baltimore RavensRonnie StanleyOTNotre Dame
177San Francisco 49ersDeForest BucknerDEOregon
188Tennessee TitansJack ConklinOTMichigan State
199Chicago BearsLeonard FloydLBGeorgia
11010New York GiantsEli AppleCBOhio State
11111Tampa Bay BuccaneersVernon HargreavesCBFlorida
11212New Orleans SaintsSheldon RankinsDLLouisville
11313Miami DolphinsLaremy TunsilOTOle Miss
11414Oakland RaidersKarl JosephSWest Virginia
11515Cleveland BrownsCorey ColemanWRBaylor
11616Detroit LionsTaylor DeckerOTOhio State
11717Atlanta FalconsKeanu NealSFlorida
11818Indianapolis ColtsRyan KellyCAlabama
11919Buffalo BillsShaq LawsonDEClemson
12020New York JetsDarron LeeLBOhio State
12121Houston TexansWill FullerWRNotre Dame
12222Washington RedskinsJosh DoctsonWRTCU
12323Minnesota VikingsLaquon TreadwellWROle Miss
12424Cincinnati BengalsWilliam JacksonCBHouston
12525Pittsburgh SteelersArtie BurnsCBMiami
12626Denver BroncosPaxton LynchQBMemphis
12727Green Bay PackersKenny ClarkDTUCLA
12828San Francisco 49ersJoshua GarnettOGStanford
12929Arizona CardinalsRobert NkemdicheDLOle Miss
13030Carolina PanthersVernon ButlerDTLouisiana Tech
13131Seattle SeahawksGermain IfediOTTexas A&M
2132Cleveland BrownsEmmanuel OgbahDEOklahoma State
2233Tennessee TitansKevin DoddDEClemson
2334Dallas CowboysJaylon SmithLBNotre Dame
2435San Diego ChargersHunter HenryTEArkansas
2536Jacksonville JaguarsMyles JackLBUCLA
2637Kansas City ChiefsChris JonesDTMississippi State
2738Miami DolphinsXavien HowardCBBaylor
2839Tampa Bay BuccaneersNoah SpenceDEEastern Kentucky
2940New York GiantsSterling ShepardWROklahoma
21041Buffalo BillsReggie RaglandLBAlabama
21142Baltimore RavensKamalei CorreaLBBoise State
21243Tennessee TitansAustin JohnsonDTPenn State
21344Oakland RaidersJihad WardDEIllinois
21445Tennessee TitansDerrick HenryRBAlabama
21546Detroit LionsA'Shawn RobinsonDTAlabama
21647New Orleans SaintsMichael ThomasWROhio State
21748Green Bay PackersJason SpriggsOTIndiana
21849Seattle SeahawksJarran ReedDTAlabama
21950Houston TexansNick MartinCNotre Dame
22051New York JetsChristian HackenbergQBPenn State
22152Atlanta FalconsDeion JonesLBLSU
22253Washington RedskinsSu'a CravensLBUSC
22354Minnesota VikingsMackensie AlexanderCBClemson
22455Cincinnati BengalsTyler BoydWRPitt
22556Chicago BearsCody WhitehairOGKansas State
22657Indianapolis ColtsT.J. GreenSClemson
22758Pittsburgh SteelersSean DavisCBMaryland
22859Tampa Bay BuccaneersRoberto AguayoKFlorida State
22960New England PatriotsCyrus JonesDBAlabama
23061New Orleans SaintsVonn BellSOhio State
23162Carolina PanthersJames BradberryCBSamford
23263Denver BroncosAdam GotsisDTGeorgia Tech
3164Tennessee TitansKevin ByardSMiddle Tennessee State
3265Cleveland BrownsCarl NassibDEPenn State
3366San Diego ChargersMax TuerkCUSC
3467Dallas CowboysMaliek CollinsDTNebraska
3568San Francisco 49ersWill RedmondCBMississippi State
3669Jacksonville JaguarsYannick NgakoueDEMaryland
3770Baltimore RavensBronson KaufusiDEBYU
3871New York GiantsDarian ThompsonSBoise State
3972Chicago BearsJonathan BullardDEFlorida
31073Miami DolphinsKenyan DrakeRBAlabama
31174Kansas City ChiefsKeiVarae RussellDBNotre Dame
31275Oakland RaidersShilique CalhounDEMichigan State
31376Cleveland BrownsShon ColemanOTAuburn
31477Carolina PanthersDaryl WorleyDBWest Virginia
31578New England PatriotsJoe ThuneyOTNC State
31679Philadelphia EaglesIsaac SeumaloCOregon State
31780Buffalo BillsAdolphus WashingtonDTOhio State
31881Atlanta FalconsAustin HooperTEStanford
31982Indianapolis ColtsLe'Raven ClarkOTTexas Tech
32083New York JetsJordan JenkinsLBGeorgia
32184Washington RedskinsKendall FullerCBVirginia Tech
32285Houston TexansBraxton MillerWROhio State
32386Miami DolphinsLeonte CarrooWRRutgers
32487Cincinnati BengalsNick VigilLBUtah State
32588Green Bay PackersKyler FackrellLBUtah State
32689Pittsburgh SteelersJavon HargraveDTSouth Carolina State
32790Seattle SeahawksC.J. ProsiseRBNotre Dame
32891New England PatriotsJacoby BrissettQBNC State
32992Arizona CardinalsBrandon WilliamsCBTexas A&M
33093Cleveland BrownsCody KesslerQBUSC
33194Seattle SeahawksNick VannettTEOhio State
33295Detroit LionsGraham GlasgowCMichigan
33396New England PatriotsVincent ValentineDTNebraska
33497Seattle SeahawksRees OdhiamboOGBoise State
33598Denver BroncosJustin SimmonsDBBoston College
4199Cleveland BrownsJoe SchobertLBWisconsin
42100Oakland RaidersConnor CookQBMichigan State
43101Dallas CowboysCharles TapperDEOklahoma
44102San Diego ChargersJoshua PerryLBOhio State
45103Jacksonville JaguarsSheldon DayDTNotre Dame
46104Baltimore RavensTavon YoungCBTemple
47105Kansas City ChiefsParker EhingerGCincinnati
48106Kansas City ChiefsEric MurrayCBMinnesota
49107Baltimore RavensChris MooreWRCincinnati
410108Tampa Bay BuccaneersRyan SmithCBNorth Carolina Central
411109New York GiantsB.J. GoodsonLBClemson
412110Los Angeles RamsTyler HigbeeTEWestern Kentucky
413111Detroit LionsMiles KillebrewSSouthern Utah
414112New England PatriotsMalcolm MitchellWRGeorgia
415113Chicago BearsNick KwiatkoskiLBWest Virginia
416114Cleveland BrownsRicardo LouisWRAuburn
417115Atlanta FalconsDe'Vondre CampbellLBMinnesota
418116Indianapolis ColtsHassan RidgewayDTTexas
419117Los Angeles RamsPharoh CooperWRSouth Carolina
420118New York JetsJuston BurrisCBNC State
421119Houston TexansTyler ErvinRBSan Jose State
422120New Orleans SaintsDavid OnyemataDEManitoba
423121Minnesota VikingsWillie BeaversGWestern Michigan
424122Cincinnati BengalsAndrew BillingsDTBaylor
425123Pittsburgh SteelersJerald HawkinsOTLSU
426124Chicago BearsDeon BushSMiami
427125Indianapolis ColtsAntonio MorrisonLBFlorida
428126Kansas City ChiefsDemarcus RobinsonWRFlorida
429127Chicago BearsDeiondre' HallCBNorthern Iowa
430128Arizona CardinalsEvan BoehmCBMissouri
431129Cleveland BrownsDerrick KindredSTCU
432130Baltimore RavensAlex LewisOTNebraska
433131Green Bay PackersBlake MartinezLBStanford
434132Baltimore RavensWillie HenryDTMichigan
435133San Francisco 49ersRashard RobinsonCBLSU
436134Baltimore RavensKenneth DixonRBLouisiana Tech
437135Dallas CowboysDak PrescottQBMississippi
438136Denver BroncosDevontae BookerRBUtah
439137Green Bay PackersDean LowryDENorthwestern
440138Cleveland BrownsSeth DeValveWRPrinceton
441139Buffalo BillsCardale JonesQBBuffalo Bills
51140Tennessee TitansTajae SharpeWRMassachusetts
52141Carolina PanthersZack SanchezCBOklahoma
53142San Francisco 49ersRonald BlairDEAppalachian State
54143Oakland RaidersDeAndre WashingtonRBTexas Tech
55144Denver BroncosConnor McGovernOGMissouri
56145San Francisco 49ersJohn TheusOTGeorgia
57146Baltimore RavensMatt JudonDEGrand Valley State
58147Seattle SeahawksQuinton JeffersonDTMaryland
59148Tampa Bay BuccaneersCaleb BenenochOTUCLA
510149New York GiantsPaul PerkinsRBUCLA
511150Chicago BearsJordan HowardRBIndiana
512151Detroit LionsJoe DahlOTWashington State
513152Washington RedskinsMatt IoannidisDTTemple
514153Philadelphia EaglesWendell SmallwoodRBWest Virginia
515154Cleveland BrownsJordan PaytonWRUCLA
516155Indianapolis ColtsJoe HaegOTNorth Dakota State
517156Buffalo BillsJonathan WilliamsRBArkansas
518157Tennessee TitansLeShaun SimsCBSouthern Utah
519158NY JetsBrandon ShellOTSouth Carolina
520159Houston TexansKJ DillonSWest Virginia
521160Minnesota VikingsKentrell BrothersLBMissouri
522161Cincinnati BengalsChristian WestermanOGArizona State
523162Kansas City ChiefsKevin HoganQBStanford
524163Green Bay PackersTrevor DavisWRCal
525164Philadelphia EaglesHalapoulivaati VaitaiOTTCU
526165Kansas City ChiefsTyreek HillWRWest Alabama
527166Houston TexansD.J. ReaderDTClemson
528167Arizona CardinalsMarqui ChristianSMidwestern State University
529168Cleveland BrownsSpencer DrangoOTBaylor
530169Detroit LionsAntwione WilliamsLBGeorgia Southern
531170Arizona CardinalsCole TonerOTHarvard
532171Seattle SeahawksAlex CollinsRBArkansas
533172Cleveland BrownsRashard HigginsWRColorado State
534173Cleveland BrownsTrey CaldwellCBLouisiana-Monroe
535174San Francisco 49ersFahn CooperOTOle Miss
536175San Diego ChargersJatavis BrownLBAkron
61176Denver BroncosAndy JanovichFBNebraska
62177Los Angeles RamsTemarrick HemingwayTESouth Carolina State
63178Kansas City ChiefsD.J. WhiteCBGeorgia Tech
64179San Diego ChargersDrew KaserPTexas A&M
65180Minnesota VikingsMoritz BoehringerWRSchwäbisch Hall Unicorns, Deutschland
66181Jacksonville JaguarsTyrone HolmesDEMontana
67182Baltimore RavensKeenan ReynoldsWRNavy
68183Tampa Bay BuccaneersDevante BondLBOklahoma
69184New York GiantsJerell AdamsTESouth Carolina
610185Chicago BearsDeAndre Houston-CarsonSWilliam & Mary
611186Miami DolphinsJakeem GrantWRTexas Tech
612187Washington RedskinsNate SudfeldQBIndiana
613188Minnesota VikingsDavid Morgan IITEUT San Antonio
614189Dallas CowboysAnthony BrownCBPurdue
615190Los Angeles RamsJosh ForrestLBKentucky
616191Detroit LionsJake RudockQBMichigan
617192Buffalo BillsKolby ListenbeeWRTCU
618193Tennessee TitansSebastian TretolaGArkansas
619194Oakland RaidersCory JamesLBColorado State
620195Atlanta FalconsWes SchweitzerGSan Jose State
621196Philadelphia EaglesBlake CountessCBAuburn
622197Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Washington)Dan VitaleFBNorthwestern
623198San Diego Chargers (from Minnesota)Derek WattFBWisconsin
624199Cincinnati BengalsCody CoreWROle Miss
625200Green Bay PackersKyle MurphyOTStanford
626201Jacksonville JaguarsBrandon AllenQBArkansas
627202Detroit LionsAnthony ZettelDEPenn State
628203Kansas City ChiefsDadi NicolasLBVirginia Tech
629204Miami DolphinsJordan LucasDBPenn State
630205Arizona CardinalsHarlan MillerCBSE Louisiana
631206Los Angeles RamsMike ThomasWRSouthern Miss
632207San Francisco 49ersJeff DriskelQBLouisiana Tech
633208New England PatriotsKamu Grugier-HillSEastern Illinois
634209Baltimore RavensMaurice CanadyCBVirginia
635210Detroit LionsJimmy LandesLSBaylor
636211San Francisco 49ersKelvin TaylorRBFlorida
637212Dallas CowboysKavon FrazierSCentral Michigan
638213San Francisco 49ersAaron BurbridgeWRMichigan State
639214New England PatriotsElandon RobertsLBHouston
640215Seattle SeahawksJoey HuntCTCU
641216Dallas CowboysDarius JacksonRBEastern Michigan
642217Dallas CowboysRico GathersTEBaylor
643218Buffalo BillsKevon SeymourCBUSC
644219Denver BroncosWill ParksSArizona
645220Pittsburgh SteelersTravis FeeneyLBWashington
646221New England PatriotsTed KarrasOGIllinois
71222Tennessee TitansAaron WallaceLBUCLA
72223Miami DolphinsBrandon DoughtyQBWestern Kentucky
73224San Diego ChargersDonavon ClarkOGMichigan State
74225New England PatriotsDevin LucienWRArizona State
75226Jacksonville JaguarsJonathan WoodardDECentral Arkansas
76227Minnesota VikingsStephen WeatherlyLBVanderbilt
77228Denver Broncos (from San Francisco)Riley DixonPSyracuse
78229Pittsburgh SteelersDeMarcus AyersWRHouston
79230Chicago BearsDaniel BravermanWRWestern Michigan
710231Miami DolphinsThomas DuarteTEUCLA
711232Washington RedskinsSteven DanielsLBBoston College
712233Philadelphia EaglesJalen MillsSLSU
713234Oakland RaidersVadal AlexanderOGLSU
714235New Yorks JetsLachlan EdwardsPSam Houston State
715236Detroit LionsDwayne WashingtonRBWashington
716237New Orleans SaintsDaniel LascoRBCal
717238Atlanta FalconsDevin FullerWRUCLA
718239Indianapolis ColtsTrevor BatesLBMaine
719240Philadelphia EaglesAlex McCalisterDEFlorida
720241New York JetsCharone PeakeWRClemson
721242Washington RedskinsKeith MarshallRBGeorgia
722243Seattle SeahawksKenny LawlerWRCal
723244Minnesota VikingsJayron KearseSClemson
724245Cincinnati BengalsClayton FejedelemSIllinois
725246Pittsburgh SteelersTyler MatakevichLBTemple
726247Seattle SeahawksZac BrooksRBClemson
727248Indianapolis ColtsAustin BlytheCIowa
728249San Francisco 49ersPrince Charles IworahCBWestern Kentucky
729250Cleveland BrownsScooby WrightLBArizona
730251Philadelphia EaglesJoe WalkerLBOregon
731252Carolina PanthersBeau SandlandTEMontana State
732253Tennessee TitansKalan ReedCBSouthern Miss

Some of the other entertaining storylines include the Ohio State Buckeyes, who had 11 players selected including five in the first round. Both of those totals came in under the line set by oddsmakers — 13.5 and 5.5 respectively. Here are the results for some of the other prop bets we discussed last week. They are ranked from most to least probable based on their odds.

  1. Hunter Henry first tight end selected (-3300)
  2. Over 2.5 quarterbacks selected in the 1st round (-900)
  3. Under 1.5 running backs selected in the 1st round (-500)
  4. Under 7.5 defensive linemen selected in the 1st round (-475)
  5. Under 5.5 wide receivers and running backs selected in the 1st round (-400)
  6. Over 2.5 Ole Miss players selected in the 1st round (-215)
  7. Under 3.5 quarterbacks selected in the 1st round (-170)
  8. Under 4.5 linebackers selected in the 1st round (-120)
  9. Braxton Miller selected in 3rd round (+110)
  10. Under 3.5 Alabama players selected in the 1st round (+115)
  11. Over 3.5 wide receivers selected in the 1st round (+125)
  12. Over 5.5 offensive linemen selected in the 1st round (+155)

There weren’t many surprises in this year’s draft with the exception of slightly more offensive lineman (6) and wide receivers (4) being picked in the 1st round than oddsmakers anticipated.

With the draft in the books, most NFL experts will spend the next few weeks grading each team’s selections and analyzing which general managers did the most to improve their roster. Truthfully, I believe that it’s too early to grade each team’s picks until we have actually seen them in game action.

Last season most analysts praised the Falcons and Cowboys while critiquing the Chiefs and Patriots. In hindsight, the rookies for Atlanta and Dallas were fairly disappointing while Kansas City’s Marcus Peters and a trio of New England offensive linemen thrived. The point is that the NFL Draft is truly unpredictable, but that doesn’t fans from overreacting.

Although many fans believe that the draft can greatly impact their favorite team’s chances of winning the Super Bowl, that’s simply not the case. According to Jeff Sherman (@golfodds), the Westgate Superbook does not adjust their futures at all based on the NFL Draft results. In fact, any line movement over the last week was due to “fine tuning” after making changes to their win totals and divisional odds.

The table below displays how the NFL Draft results have impacted the win total and Super Bowl futures at the Westgate Superbook. Even though the odds from April 25th came right before news of Tom Brady’s suspension, the Patriots remain the favorite at +600.

TEAMWestgate (5/1)Westgate (4/25)
New England Patriots+600+600
Seattle Seahawks+800+800
Green Bay Packers+800+1000
Pittsburgh Steelers+800+1000
Carolina Panthers+900+1200
Cincinnati Bengals+1400+1200
Arizona Cardinals+1400+1400
Dallas Cowboys+1600+1400
Denver Broncos+1600+1200
Minnesota Vikings+1800+1600
Kansas City Chiefs+1800+2500
Indianapolis Colts+3000+2500
Baltimore Ravens+3000+3000
Houston Texans+3000+4000
Oakland Raiders+3000+3000
New York Giants+3000+3000
New York Jets+4000+3000
Buffalo Bills+4000+4000
Washington Redskins+5000+4000
Jacksonville Jaguars+5000+8000
Philadelphia Eagles+5000+6000
Chicago Bears+6000+4000
Los Angeles Rams+6000+5000
Detroit Lions+6000+6000
Atlanta Falcons+6000+4000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+6000+6000
New Orleans Saints+8000+6000
Miami Dolphins+8000+5000
San Diego Chargers+8000+10000
San Francisco 49ers+8000+10000
Tennessee Titans+10000+8000
Cleveland Browns+15000+20000

Which team do you think had the best draft? Do you agree that projecting the impact of rookies is nearly impossible? Are any of these futures offering value?

Please leave your thoughts in the section below, and don’t forget to bookmaker our free NFL odds page for all of your betting needs.

David Solar

David was the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He has since moved on to greener pastures.

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