2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds

Back in April, Sportsbook.com posted odds for the 2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year. It was fairly surprising to see these odds posted so early since books have historically waited until early-August to begin posting this prop bet. However, we should note that Sportsbook.com does not have the best reputation. Aside from issues regarding delayed payouts, this prop bet took low limits with a 42% hold.

[ View the latest odds and trends on our free NFL odds page ]

Last season, Texans defensive end J.J. Watt beat out Aaron Donald and Luke Kuechly to take home the 2015 Defensive Player of the Year. This was the second consecutive year that Watt was named DPOY; joining former Giants star Lawrence Taylor as the only three-time winner. For what it’s worth, Watt was +150 to win the award in 2015 and +550 to win the award in 2014.

Since the award was first presented in 1971, every defensive position has been well represented. There have been 18 defensive linemen, 16 linebackers, and 10 defensive backs to win the award. It’s also interesting that just seven players have won the award in years where their team missed the playoffs, which includes two strike-shortened seasons.

On November 18, Bovada posted updated Defensive Player of the Year odds for seven players, but there several glaring omissions including Oakland’s Khalil Mack and Carolina’s Luke Kuechly. Von Miller, who entered the season with the second-shortest odds, was listed as the favorite at +300.

Over this past weekend, BetOnline posted updated odds for the Defensive Player of the Year Award with Mack listed as the odds-on favorite at -350. Miller, whose 13.5 sacks trailed only Vic Beasley, was listed with the second best odds at +500.

The table below compares the 2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds at BetOnline, Bovada, and Sportsbook.com. We will continue to update this table as we receive new information.

Player BetOnline (1/30) Bovada (11/18) Sportsbk (8/29) Sportsbk (4/28)
Khalil Mack -350 N/A +550 +600
Von Miller +500 +300 +500 +550
Landon Collins +800 +600 N/A N/A
Field +1200 N/A N/A N/A
Aaron Donald +1200 +600 +1000 +1800
Deone Bucannon N/A N/A +12500 +9000
Dee Ford N/A +400 N/A N/A
Tyrann Mathieu N/A N/A +4000 +6000
Patrick Peterson N/A N/A +4000 +7500
Clay Matthews N/A N/A +5000 +2000
Justin Houston N/A N/A +5000 +3000
Ndamukong Suh N/A N/A +5000 +4000
Kawann Short N/A N/A +6000 +2000
Earl Thomas N/A N/A +6000 +2500
Lavonte David N/A N/A +6000 +5000
Aqib Talib N/A N/A +7500 +5000
Darrelle Revis N/A N/A +7500 +5000
DeMarcus Ware N/A N/A +7500 +7500
Geno Atkins N/A N/A +7500 +7500
Robert Quinn N/A N/A +7500 +3000
CJ Mosley N/A N/A +10000 +8000
Jamie Collins N/A N/A +10000 +20000
Eric Berry N/A N/A +10000 +6000
Lorenzo Alexander N/A +400 N/A N/A
Marcus Peters N/A +350 +20000 +20000
Star Lotui N/A N/A +12500 +10000
Casey Hayward N/A +900 N/A N/A
Kam Chancellor N/A N/A +15000 +9000
Jalen Ramsey N/A N/A +15000 +15000
Kwon Alexander N/A N/A +15000 +15000
Bobby Wagner N/A N/A +17500 +10000
Vontaze Burflict N/A N/A +17500 +7500
Joe Haden N/A N/A +17500 +10000
Everson Griffin N/A N/A +17500 +20000
Michael Bennett N/A N/A +17500 +12500
JJ Watt N/A N/A +375 +225
Whitney Mercilus N/A N/A +20000 +15000
Myles Jack N/A N/A +20000 +20000
Ryan Kerrigan N/A N/A +20000 +20000
Shaq Lawson N/A N/A +20000 +20000
Joey Bosa N/A N/A +20000 +25000
Elvis Dumervil N/A N/A +20000 +17500
Thomas Davis N/A N/A +30000 +10000
Luke Kuechly N/A N/A +1200 +900
Richard Sherman N/A N/A +1600 +1200
Josh Norman N/A N/A +2000 +1600
Fletcher Cox N/A N/A +10000 +10000
Jadaveon Clowney N/A N/A +10000 +10000

The section below was originally published on April 28th:

These odds will change dramatically before the regular season kicks off, but there are two intriguing players that may be offering value. Voters have clearly placed a premium on pass rushers in recent years, which makes both Aaron Donald (+1800) and Khalil Mack (+600) attractive options.

Last season Donald finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting after posting 69 tackles and 11 sacks. Only 24-years old and entering his third season in the league, Donald may only be scratching the surface of his potential.

Khalil Mack is yet another third-year player with tremendous upside. Last season Mack finished the season with 77 tackles and 15 sacks, which was the second-highest total in the league. In fact, Mack was so versatile and valuable that he made the All-Pro team twice — once as a defensive end and once as a linebacker. I’m very optimistic about the Raiders prospects this season, and Mack’s impact is one of the major reasons.

Which players do you think are offering value? Do you think that Watt will win for a third straight season? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

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David Solar

David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He specializes in sports betting analytics and creating data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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3 comments on “2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds
  1. Landon collins has 87 tackles most of which solo, 5 picks, 3 sacks, more passes defended then any lb or safety, hardly any missed tackles, actually he has more solo tackles then most of the tackle leaders with over 100 tackles through week 11. Overall to me its a no brainer he needs to be top 3 for dpoy. I would put him 1 or 2 personally because he is so well rounded, he hits hard, always makes the tackle, makes big plays for his team, wether its a big int or sack, or just a 3rd down tackle short of the sticks. To lead safeties in 4 categories tackles, intercepetions, sacks and passes defended is just amazing especially with safeties like chancellor and weddle, thomas out there. At this rate his 16 week stat totals will look something like this. Landon Colllins, 125 tackles, 92 solo, 7 interceptions, 5 sacks, 20 passes defended, 2 touchdowns and with stats that ridiculous as a 2nd year safety in the nfl, Defensive Player of Year is going to be hard to not give to Collins.

  2. Sorry got passes defended wrong he’s projected to have 15 pd not 20. cbssports had it wrong. Also Collins looks to be #1 safety in the league in Passes defended and top 20 overall behind only the best cornerbacks in the league, tied for # 2 overall in INT’s behind cb casey hayward and tied with db marcus peters , #5 overall in solo tackles the next closest safety is #15 in solo tackles. In combined tackles he’s ranked 21st behind only linebackers. To me being in the mix with db’s for most int’s is impressive, same with being top 5 in solo tackles, top 21 in combined leading all safeties and being in the mix with the top linebackers in the league is amazing, we all know lb’s always have the most tackles solo or combined same with defensive backs in Interceptions and passes defended, we all know db’s get way more passes there way then safeties so to one of the leaders in INT’s and top 20 in the league in passes defended shows how good he is. Overall he is a hard hitting tackling machine, ball hawk who makes big plays game after game, shows why he is dpoy material. And after really getting into it I’d put him #1 through 11 weeks. Best safety in the league, its actually laughable that pro football focus has weddle and chancellor ahead of collins, if you look chancellor and weddle have no sacks while collins has 3, they 2 int’s a piece, both 3 behind collins, weddle has 35 solo tackles 58 combined, and chancellor has 26 solo and 50 combined while collins has 72 solo and 87 combined, giving him more than double the solo tackles of weddle and almost 3 times the solo tackles of chancellor and almost 30 more combined than weddle and 37 more combined then chancellor. So pro football focus needs to focus in on the big picture and stop ranking guys according to their name and start ranking guys on their stats.

  3. Also you guys have von miller who has 49 tackles 12.5 sacks and lorenzo Alexander and dee ford ahead of collins. Lorenzo has 46 tackles 10 sacks and ford 32 and 10, miller has 1 forced fumble, lorenzo has 3 forced fumbles and ford 1 ff. To me collins 5 INT are worth 10 sacks easily. A INT gives your team the ball back, and some cases like against the bears literally wins the game, now a sack at the right time can win a game but lets not forget collins has 3 sacks too. So if a pick is worth 2 sacks collins would have 13 sacks, and 38 more tackles more than miller and 41 more tackles then lorenzo, to me ford is having a great season with 10 sacks , but he shouldn’t even be in the running, same with aaron donald who only has 6 sacks and 35 total tackles. Lorenzo’s 3 forced fumbles puts him right next to miller but to me both behind collins. Not far behind like collins is 1a miller 1b and lorenzo 1c. The next 5 weeks should determine who wins but under no circumstances should defensive player of the year be a popularity contest. Whoever has the better stats should win. Now coming up with a value for interceptions and sacks and forced fumbles etc should help. And a 4th down sack with 2 minutes to go while an opponent is driving to take the lead or send it to OT should be worth more than a 1st quarter sack just like a pick that gives your team the win like collins vs the bears should be worth more then a INT in the beginning of the 2nd quarter etc…

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