2016 NFL Best and Worst Record Odds
With the NFL season just around the corner, 5Dimes is offering some interesting props and futures that might pique your interest over the next few weeks. Among these are best and worst regular season records. Odds are offered for all 32 teams for each listing, allowing you to be as safe or risky as you want. So while it is incredibly unlikely, you could have a little fun and take the Packers at +35,000 to have the worst record or the Browns at +25,000 to have the best record. Crazier things have happened…actually, maybe not.
Over the past ten seasons, four teams or more have finished with at least 12 wins in each season. Just two years ago, five teams tied for the best record at 12 wins. There have been six teams with at least 14 wins in that span, including the 16-win Patriots in ’07. To take home the best record this year, you’ll likely need your team to win 13 games at the least.
This season, there are five teams that have odds of less than 10/1 to finish with the best record. The Packers sit at the top of the list at +575, followed by the Seahawks at +650, and the trio of the Patriots, Panthers, and Steelers at +800.
The Packers are coming off of a 10-6 season but, with Jordy Nelson due to return, Aaron Rodgers could be looking at another MVP-caliber season. Green Bay also has a very easy schedule, though, with their toughest non-division road game likely coming in week 8 at the Falcons. Based on last season’s records, they have the easiest schedule in the NFL this year.
The Seahawks and Russell Wilson will be tested in their first season in the post-Beast Mode era. Though Thomas Rawls was efficient last year, the Seahawks enter the season with the worst offensive line in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus. The Seahawks also have to deal with another elite team in their division in the Cardinals, as well as several tough non-division games against the Panthers, Patriots, and Packers. Add that all up, and the best record in the NFL seems like a tall task for Seattle.
The Panthers will be looking to redeem themselves after a disappointing Super Bowl loss, but they will have serious trouble replicating their 15-1 season. After losing Josh Norman, Pro Football Focus ranks them as the worst secondary in the NFL, which isn’t exactly a recipe for success. They don’t have any other weaknesses, however, and are looking for Kelvin Benjamin to have a productive comeback season. Their biggest test will come in early December when they face Oakland and Seattle on the road in back-to-back games.
The Patriots’ season relies heavily on the success of Jimmy Garoppolo in the first four games. Most people believe the Patriots could be anywhere from 3-1 to 1-3 during his stint as starter, which has huge implications on this type of bet. If Garoppolo can only manage to go 1-3, that likely means Tom Brady would have to step right in and go 12-0 for the Patriots to have a chance to finish with the best record. If he can be a solid QB and limit turnovers while working with a wide variety of offensive weapons, there’s a good chance the Patriots can go 3-1, allowing Brady a comfort zone to ease back into regular season play.
The Steelers are hoping to have one of the best offensive squads in the league again this year. They have elite players at QB, RB, and WR, but their mediocre defense will force the offense to be at full-speed every week. They have two solid teams in their division that could give them trouble, but two all-but-guaranteed wins against the Browns.
A bit further down the list are the Cardinals. Though they have to deal with the Seahawks, they could be an incredibly well-rounded team if David Johnson has a breakout season at running back. The Bengals are another well-rounded team that could break through if they can handle their division opponents.
|Green Bay Packers||+575|
|New England Patriots||+800|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+1200|
|New York Giants||+4000|
|New York Jets||+7500|
|Los Angeles Rams||+8000|
|New Orleans Saints||+9000|
|San Diego Chargers||+10000|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+10000|
|San Francisco 49ers||+20000|
When it comes to the worst teams in the league, the Browns are at the bottom (or top) of the list. According to Bet Labs Sports, after 1,000 season simulations, the Browns finish below 4.5 wins 52.1% of the time and finish with 3 wins or less about 30% of the time. Some RGIII fans may have hope for the Browns, as well as those who buy into the Browns new analytical approach.
If you do have faith in the Browns, the 49ers may be the way to go. Colin Kaepernick hasn’t been able to replicate the performance he put up the year he led the team to the Super Bowl, but there is that small chance he can return to form to some degree. The 49ers essentially have seven guaranteed losses against the Seahawks (x2), Cardinals (x2), Patriots, Panthers, and Packers. Based on last season’s records, they have the hardest schedule in the NFL this year.
Further down the list, the Titans provide a good payout if you don’t believe in Marcus Mariota. There are more than a handful of teams at +1,500 and +1,600 that could be worthy of taking a flier on. Many of these depend on how their division shakes out. The Bears and Lions from the NFC North both provide 16/1 payouts, while the Falcons, Bucs, and Saints will all be fighting for that bottom spot in the NFC South.
|San Francisco 49ers||+550|
|New Orleans Saints||+1500|
|Los Angeles Rams||+1600|
|San Diego Chargers||+1600|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+1600|
|New York Jets||+2500|
|New York Giants||+4000|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+10000|
|New England Patriots||+25000|
|Green Bay Packers||+35000|
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