2016 MLB Season: Player Prop Bets
For months we have discussed some of the most popular futures and prop bets in addition to the historically profitable betting systems that we have featured. However, most of the available prop bets were based on picking the winner from the pool whether it’s the odds to lead the league in various statistical categories or win one of the many annual awards.
Earlier this week Bovada became the first major offshore sportsbook to post player performance prop bets. These props allow bettors to wager on the over/under for various statistical milestones. Although they take fairly low limits on this prop, it gives us insight into exactly how well oddsmakers believe players will perform during the upcoming season.
Players need to be on the opening day roster for action, but bettors are able to wager on the over/under for batting average, home runs, runs batted in, stolen bases, wins and saves.
Batting Average (BA)
Home Runs (HR)
Runs Batted In (RBI)
Steals (SB)
| Player | Steals |
|---|---|
| Billy Hamilton | 59.5 |
| Dee Gordon | 52.5 |
| Jose Altuve | 39.5 |
| Charlie Blackmon | 35.5 |
| Ben Revere | 35.5 |
| Billy Burns | 32.5 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 30.5 |
| Starlin Marte | 29.5 |
| Delino DeShields | 29.5 |
| A.J. Pollock | 29.5 |
| Gregory Polanco | 25.5 |
| Lorenzo Cain | 24.5 |
| Kevin Pillar | 24.5 |
Wins (W)
Saves
| Player | Saves |
|---|---|
| Trevor Rosenthal | 42.5 |
| Wade Davis | 39.5 |
| Mark Melancon | 39.5 |
| Kenley Jansen | 39.5 |
| Jeurys Familia | 39.5 |
| Craig Kimbrel | 39.5 |
| Huston Street | 38.5 |
| Zach Britton | 35.5 |
| David Roberston | 35.5 |
| Jonathan Papelbon | 35.5 |
| Ken Giles | 34.5 |
| Hector Rondon | 34.5 |
| Francisco Rodriguez | 34.5 |
| Santiago Casilla | 30.5 |
| A.J. Ramos | 30.5 |
These are always interesting props to examine, and there are certainly a few totals that seem to be inflated. The first pick offering value is Billy Hamilton under 59.5 steals. There’s no doubt that Hamilton is the fastest and most dangerous base runner in baseball, but he’s also an atrocious hitter. After batting .226 last season, it’s entirely possible that Hamilton could lose his job to Jesse Winker — a 22-year old prospect who hit .282/.390/.433 with 13 homers in Double-A last season.
It also seems like oddsmakers are overrating Tigers shortstop Jose Iglesias. Despite batting at least .300 in consecutive seasons, Iglesias is far from an elite hitter. It’s also worth noting that Iglesias was accused of putting personal success ahead of the team, but he has promised to change his behavior this season. Earlier this off-season Iglesias said, “At the end of the day, it’s not about you. It’s about winning.” This change in mentality should help keep his batting average below .290.
In the power department, Colorado’s Carlos Gonzalez is being hugely overvalued. It’s true that he crushed 40 home runs last season, but that was only the second time he’s hit more than 30 home runs in a season. This is a player who has struggled to stay healthy and could be shipped out at the trade deadline. Considering his Coors Field splits (last season he slugged .617 at home and .464 on the road), any trade would likely kill his home run total. Take under 30.5.
We should also point out that these over/under props can be very useful for fantasy baseball players. By comparing these totals to the ESPN projections, we’re able to separate the sleepers from the busts.
One example involves the batting average of Michael Brantley. ESPN has set his projection at .304 but his over/under at Bovada is .295. This information indicates that fantasy managers may want to avoid drafting the Indians outfielder.
Similarly, ESPN’s fantasy experts are projecting 38 home runs from Miguel Sano but the oddsmakers have set his over/under at 29.5. This massive discrepancy once again indicates that fantasy managers will want to look at other options. Astros outfielder George Springer is ranked lower than Sano, but would provide speed as well as comparable power.
Finally, oddsmakers have set the over/under on David Ortiz RBI at 90.5 but the ESPN experts are projecting 102. Perhaps fantasy managers may want to consider selecting Adrian Gonzalez ahead of Big Papi in their upcoming draft.
For the latest lines, betting trends and more, bettors should be sure to bookmark our free MLB odds page. Looking for Best Bets, Bet Signals and valuable features like the line watcher, line predictor and value meter? Sign up for our Early Bird Special and save 40% on five months of our Pro subscription.
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