Week 3 was a tough week for underdogs, however there were a few surprising victories. The most notable one was North Dakota State stunning Iowa with a last-second field goal, escaping Iowa City with a 23-21 victory. Although North Dakota State was only +550 on the moneyline, an upset is still an upset.
In this weekly column, we will provide bettors with information that will help them make smarter college football bets and figure out which teams are undervalued.
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) September 19, 2016
Which NCAAF line moves matter? Here are three games that bettors need to take a look at.
(2016 College Football Week 4 Line Moves That Matter)
Michigan State is receiving 75% of spread bets, but Wisconsin (+5) may be offering some value. (NCAAF Game of the Week: Wisconsin at Michigan State)
Alabama remains the favorite (+385) to win the NCAAF National Championship. However, keep an eye on Houston and Louisville, both of whom saw their odds improve after Week 3 wins. (2016-17 College Football National Championship Odds)
Lamar Jackson (+120) is now the favorite to win the Heisman after leading Louisville to a blowout victory over then #2 ranked Florida State. (2016 Heisman Odds)
Antonio Callaway (Quad), is upgraded to probable Saturday (9/24) at Tennessee.
Marcus Cox (Leg), is out Saturday (9/24) at Akron.
Anu Soloman (Knee), is downgraded to doubtful Saturday (9/24) vs. Washington.
Nick Wilson (Ankle), is downgraded to doubtful Saturday (9/24) vs. Washington.
Royce Freeman (Ankle), is downgraded to doubtful Saturday (9/24) vs. Colorado
Drew Barker (Back), is out indefinitely.
Key Line Movement
Boise State vs. Oregon State, 3:30 PM Eastern: Boise State is receiving 53% of spread bets, yet the Broncos have moved from -14 to -13 at Pinnacle. That reverse line movement reveals that sharper bettors are backing the Beavers. The graph below, which is available to Sportsbook Insider subscribers, illustrates how the sharp action has influenced the line movement in favor of Oregon State.
On 9/19 there was a steam move triggered at Heritage on Oregon State that caused the line to fall from +14 to +13. After that move, the percentage of money on the Beavers skyrocketed. At the time of publication, Oregon State is receiving 70% of spread money, despite being 13-point ‘dogs. Given the discrepancy between the betting percentages and money percentages as well as the line movement, sharper bettors believe that Oregon State will cover the spread.
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