2016 College Football AP Poll vs. Title Odds

The 2016 College Football AP Poll was released on Sunday morning at 10 am ET and to no surprise, Alabama, Clemson, and Oklahoma are the top 3 schools. The table below shows the preseason AP Poll compared to each team’s NCAA Title odds and playoff odds via 5Dimes:

AP Poll Rank Team Title Odds
Odds to Make Playoff
1 Alabama +665 +145
2 Clemson +710 +155
3 Oklahoma +1095 +175
4 Florida State +1350 +315
5 LSU +900 +325
6 Ohio State +1075 +195
7 Michigan +1100 +240
8 Stanford +2800 +425
9 Tennessee +1450 +325
10 Notre Dame +2200 +450
11 Ole Miss +5200 +950
12 Michigan State +8000 +1200
13 TCU +5200 +850
14 Washington +4500 +500
15 Houston +10000 +1250
16 UCLA +6000 +750
17 Iowa +9500 +1400
18 Georgia +6000 +950
19 Louisville +7500 +1400
20 USC +6000 +800
21 Oklahoma State +10000 +1000
22 North Carolina +13500 +1500
23 Baylor +6000 +900
24 Oregon +4800 +775
25 Florida +5500 +1300

At first glance, Michigan State appears to be highly overrated by the AP Poll, as they sit at 80:1 to win the title by oddsmakers and are 12:1 just to make the playoffs. I took their Season Win Total Under 8.5 a couple months ago and am surprised to see them ranked so high this year.

A team that appears to be underrated by the AP Poll is Oregon, as they have better title odds at #24 than any other school ranked #15-25.

Another interesting team to watch for is Washington. They have decent title and playoff odds, and they’re receiving a good portion of money at William Hill to win the Pac-12. Personally I like UCLA from the Pac-12, but that conference appears to be open with the likes of Stanford, USC, Washington, Utah, UCLA, and Oregon all in contention.

How have preseason #1 teams finished lately? To put it simply, they’re not a good bet:

At 5Dimes, there’s been sharp money on Clemson to make the playoffs. At CRIS, there’s also been sharp money on Clemson to win the NCAA title, along with FSU, Alabama, LSU, and Ohio State. At William Hill, FSU and LSU are receiving the most money wagered to win their conference.

You can also find every team’s odds to win the NCAA Title and to make the 4-Team Playoff.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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