2016-17 Premier League: Week 23 Betting Preview

I’m excited to look ahead to Week 23 after losing both value plays last week, but we’re still up +8.74 units this season. This week’s marquee matchup will feature Liverpool hosting Chelsea on Tuesday night, but there are also a couple decent games including West Ham/Man City and Stoke/Everton on Wednesday night.

Week 22 Results
Chelsea -550 vs. Hull
Arsenal -485 vs. Burnley
West Brom -146 vs. Sunderland
Southampton -120 vs. Leicester
Everton +158 at Crystal Palace
West Ham +221 at Middlesbrough
Man City/Tottenham Draw +259
Bournemouth/Watford Draw +266
Stoke/Man United Draw +335
Swansea +1200 at Liverpool

Season Trends
Home: 106 wins of 220 (+17.10 units)
Away: 64 wins of 220 (-50.21 units)
Draw: 50 wins of 220 (-23.84 units)

Title Odds at 5Dimes and Current Points
Chelsea -230 (55)
Tottenham +830 (46)
Arsenal +890 (47)
Liverpool +1250 (45)
Man City +1900 (43)
Man Utd +3800 (41)

The first play of the week will actually be on the biggest match– Liverpool +160 vs. Chelsea. This bet seems a bit risky at first since Chelsea are well atop the league while Liverpool have had a very tough week in the EPL and FA Cup. However, the public is very heavy on Chelsea +200 with nearly 70% of moneyline tickets. The initial line movement at Pinnacle, a sharp market-setting sportsbook especially for soccer, was on Liverpoool to bring the line down from +160 to +146. The line eventually crept back up to Liverpool +160 due to many public wagers on Chelsea. The moneyline graph below shows how Liverpool’s odds have moved at Pinnacle since opening:

This is one of the few matches this season where Chelsea aren’t the favorites, and I believe that Liverpool will get their season back on track at home.

The next value play is the Middlesbrough/West Brom Draw +199. This game should be tight and just 13% of moneyline tickets are taking the draw. Middlesbrough aren’t particularly strong at home but are favored against a superior team in West Brom. I’m forecasting a 1-1 final in this one.

Lastly will be a 3-team moneyline parlay on big favorites Arsenal -398/Tottenham -247/Man United -486 which pays out +112. In each of these matches, public bettors are actually taking the big underdogs on the other side. Each of these favorites has at least a 70% chance of victory, yet the public betting percentages on the favorites are around 50%. Public bettors are seeing the big underdog lines and taking them, so I think there’s actually value on the other side by parlaying the favorites at +112 odds.

Most Lopsided Around Market: 75% on Burnley (+195), 68% on Chelsea (+200), 64% on Bournemouth (+108)

Biggest Line Moves: Swansea/Southampton Draw +248 to +234, Sunderland +825 to +758

Value Plays (+8.74 units): Liverpool +160, Middlesbrough/West Brom Draw + 199, Tottenham/Arsenal/Man United parlay +112

Members can access odds and betting percentages for every game with a Premium and Pro membership.

The following two tabs change content below.

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

No Comments Permalink

Say something

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked with a grey bar.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>